The markets opened with a gap down, and Nifty made a low of 5136, before closing at 5178, down by 0.31% for the day. The markets traded in the lower range, for the entire day, except in the last half an hour, when the markets witnessed some hectic activity and inched higher towards the close of  the session. The market breadth was negative for the entire day with 835 advances to 643 declines, while the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1332 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 299 crores in the cash market, in the futures market the FIIs were net sellers of index futures to the tune of 540 crores and net buyers of stock futures to the tune of 681 crores. Nifty April futures closed at 5232, 54 points premium to the spot, with a considerable addition of open interest. On the options side , PCR marginally increased to 0.99. On the call side 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 and 5100 calls, while on the put side 5000 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 put. As far as maximum open interest build up is concerned, on the call side it is 5400 followed by the 5600 & 5500 calls, on the put side it is 5000 followed by 5200 & 5100 puts. This entire activity on the futures and options side indicates shorts building up in the system, mainly because the mood has turned extremely negative, with the market perception that the government will hardly be able to do anything on the policy front, because everyday a new scam props up, pushing the government from a proactive mode to a defensive mode, which compels the investors to move away from the riskier assets. On the technical side , all the indicators are still in sell mode and with Nifty closing below the crucial level of 5193, more shorts will build up and may take the markets to new lows. Going forward the levels to watch put for Nifty tomorrow will be 5203, 5228 and 5249 on the upside and 5144, 5110 & 5085 on the downside. The European markets ended deep in the red on the back of worse than expected economic data and the U.S. markets are trading in the red on the back of mixed economic and corporate data.

The markets opened on a negative note, after the short-lived rally yesterday and Nifty made a low of 5169 before closing at 5195, down by 0.92% for the day. The market breadth was extremely negative with 366 advances to 1144 declines and the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 148 crores , while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of  73 crores in the cash markets, but the FIIs were net buyers in Index and stock futures to the tune of 173 and 282 crores respectively.Nifty  April futures closed the day at 5247, a whooping 52 points premium to the spot, with a massive addition of open interest, which is quite obvious at the start of the new series. On the options side the PCR fell to 0.95. On the call side April Nifty 5400 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 and 5300 calls on the put side April Nifty 5000 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 and 5100 puts. On the call side there is a maximum buildup of open interest on 5600 call followed by the 5400 call on the put side there is maximum buildup on the 5000 put followed by the 5200 put. On the technical side Nifty has breached the crucial level of 5190 and somehow managed to close above it, the indicators are still in a sell mode, but the monthly expiry may lead to short technical bounce-back. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty tomorrow, will be 5230,5266 on the upside and 5132, 5096 on the downside. The European markets ended in the red mainly on the back of worse than expected U.K's GDP numbers, while the U.S. markets are trading in the red on the back of below the expectations, durable goods data and rise in crude oil inventories.

CAUTION

The market caught everyone unaware, as it did yesterday. Nifty opened on a negative note and made a intraday low of 5205, before closing at 5228, down by 2.54% for the day. The markets were taking a breather, after yesterday's rally, but the bad news flow in the from of weak manufacturing data from Europe and  slowing economic growth in China along with CAG's shocking preliminary report of another scam and the railway minister's populistic measures, spooked the markets, by the time the European markets opened in the afternoon. The  market breadth was extremely negative with 303 advances to 1202 declines, while FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 246 crores and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 133 crores in the cash market. Nifty futures closed at 5240, with a considerable loss in open interest and at 12 points premium to the spot. On the options. side the PCR rose to 1.18. On the put side there was massive shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5600 puts, with a corresponding addition of open interest from 5100  to 5600 calls. This entire activity shows, call writing resumed today, after a break yesterday and some more downside is expected in the market. As suggested on 19th March that it was necessary for Nifty, to close above the level of 5291 to continue the uptrend, but unfortunately it didn't happen and at the same time it has reached, very close to the the three week low,closing of 5220. The technical charts, both daily and weekly have given clear sell signals. However to resume the uptrend, Nifty has to close above the 5323 level. The levels to watch out for Nifty tomorrow, will be 5258, 5290 and 5307 on the upside and 5188, 5165 and 5111 on the downside. The U.S. markets are trading moderately in the red on the back good jobless claims data, while the European markets have closed deep in the red. Going forward it should be a buy on dips strategy.


STOCK PICKS


LT -  Buy 1269 - 1280 SL 1242 TGT - 1320, 1343
AXIS Bank -  Buy 1155 - 1170 SL 1130, TGT -  1210, 1223

INDECISION

Nifty opened on a flat note, and made a high of 5297, before closing at 5275, up by 0.34%, once again managing to close above the crucial mark of 5253, for the day. It was an absolutely , lackluster session, with the activity mainly concentrated in the Bank Nifty and FMCG stocks. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 695 advances to 784 declines and muted activity from the market participants, which was reflected in the figures where FIIs were net buyers to the tune of mere 111 crores and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 120 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5297, with considerable loss of open interest and 22 points premium to the spot. On the options side the PCR increased to 1.02. There was considerable addition of open interest from 5200 to 5500 calls with an exception of the 5100 and 5600 calls, while on the put side there was considerable shedding of open interest in the 5600 put followed by the 5500 and 5300 puts. The India VIX also fell sharply by 4.48%. The entire scenario where the PCR has increased, along with continuous call writing at higher levels and the VIX making new lows every day. It is very unlikely that the markets will be able to make any meaningful gains in the short term. The levels to watch out for Nifty tomorrow will be 5315, 5337 on the upside and 5239 and 5204 on the downside. The European markets are trading deep in the red on the back of unfavorable inflation and manufacturing data , while the U.S. stocks are trading in the red mainly on the back of worse than expected Housing data and fears of Chinese economic slowdown. While the most important event will be the Fed chairman’s speech which has to be watched very closely.


STOCK PICKS


AXIS BANK - BUY 1168-1175, SL 1144. TGT  - 1203, 1211, 1236.

DISILLUSIONED

As expected, Nifty opened on a negative note, and somehow tried to enter the positive territory but met the overhead resistance of 5350 and for the rest of the day there was nothing to stop the selling and it breached the crucial level of 5266 and closed at 5257, barely above its 50-day moving average at 5252.The only thing to draw solace from, was that the day was not marked by high volumes. The market breadth was clearly negative with 434 advances to 1052 declines, while the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 162 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 295 crores. Nifty Futures closed at 5277, 20 points premium to the spot, with, a moderate loss in open interest. On the options side the PCR was down to 0.88. On the call options side there was considerable addition of open interest from 5000 to 5500 calls, while on the put side there was a considerable shedding of open interest from 5300 to 5600 puts, with a exception of 5100 put, which added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 put. This entire activity on the options side along with a moderate fall in the VIX, indicates fresh call writing, in the absence of any positive events, which is going to make any upmove very difficult. On the technical side the daily charts are showing a clear trend change, but the weekly charts are still in a uptrend. According to time series analysis Nifty must maintain the level of 5291 by the 22nd of March in order to keep the uptrend intact. The levels to watch out for Nifty tomorrow will be 5322, 5343 on the upside and 5216 , 5285 on the downside.The U.S. markets are trading in the green on the back of mixed manufacturing and housing data, while Europe and the rest of Asia have remained flat for greater part of the day.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Nifty opened on a flattish note, and made a high of 5445, mainly on the expectations of a bold budget, but it turned out to be a fiasco, and the market responded aptly, by making a low of 5305, before closing at 5317, 1.16% down.The entire market breadth was extremely negative with 449 advances to 1035 declines, while the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 883 crores, the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 770 crores. The only stocks that were up were ITC and M&M. The Nifty futures closed at 5342, 25 points premium to the spot, and with considerable addition of open interest. On the options side the PCR increased to 0.99. There was a considerable addition of open interest from 5200 to 5600 calls with corresponding shedding of open interest from 5200 to 5600 puts, while the 5100 put added the maximum open interest.  The entire activity on the options side suggests that there was some profit booking in the profitable puts, with considerable call writing at higher levels, which may act as huge detterent in the week ahead for Nifty. While the overall market picture is clear, with the major events behind us, the markets participants will focus on the not so encouraging advance tax figures as well as the resolve of the government towards honoring the commitments made in the budget. The levels to watch out for Nifty tomorrow, will be 5350,5406 on the upside and 5266, 5253 on the downside.

INFLEXION POINT

As expected yesterday, there was a huge spike in the volatility levels today, ahead of the two major events RBI's quarterly monetary policy review and Union Budget 2012, the Nifty swung 100 points on a intraday basis and made a low of 5362, before closing at 5380, down by 1.53%. While the economic survey provided some solace in the form of a bright outlook for the next financial year, but the political stalemate caused nervousness and the investors started dumping stocks at the available prices, which was clearly evident from the strong negative breadth of 392 advances to 1099 declines and the buy-sell figures, which showed that FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 156 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 389 crores.There was across the sector sell-off but the major cut, came from the banking sector because of  no cuts in the Repo and the Reverse- repo rates. The only performers of the day were HINDUNILEVER and WIPRO. The Nifty futures closed at 5419, with 39 points premium, with addition of open interest. On the options side the PCR was down to 0.93. There was shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5300 calls while the 5500 calls added the maximum open interest, on the put side there was massive shedding of open interest from 5000 - 5600 puts with a exception of 5100 put which added open interest. The entire activity indicates fresh shorts building in the system and at the same time some profit booking happening in all the in- the money puts, which is again a sign of indecision in the market. Going forward tomorrow is a big day for the markets, and the entire movement of the markets will be defined, the way the participants and investors perceive the budget outcome. The levels to watch out for Nifty tomorrow, will be 5440, 5485 on the upside and 5340, 5323 and 5259 on the downside. Meanwhile the U.S. and the European markets are trading in the green, mainly on the back of better than expected jobless claims and manufacturing data.

CAUTION

What a day for the markets ? The markets opened with positive bias and Nifty made a high of 5499, before making a low of 5437  and closing the day at 5463, a swing of 61 points on a intraday basis. The day was very important from a economic prospective, because the railway budget was a precursor to the union budget about to be presented, day after tomorrow and it seemed that the government has taken the first bold step towards fiscal prudence, which was cheered by the markets, but soon the political bickering started along with the worst than expected inflation data and the market gave up almost all its gains and the Nifty managed to close marginally higher by 0.63%, by the end of the session. The market breadth turned negative with 669 advances to 830 declines, but the FIIs turned saviours again, with net buy figures to the tune of 1659 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 857 crores, indicating the nervousness among the domestic participants, waiting to sell at the slightest signs of weakness.The star performers for the day were PNB, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, LT and NTPC. The Nifty futures closed at 5506, with 43 points premium and considerable addition of open interest. On the options side the PCR (Put - Call Ratio) increased to 1.13. There was shedding of open interest for he second consecutive session, right from 5000 to 5500 calls and corresponding addition of open interest from 5000 - 5600 puts with a exception of the 5500 put. All this action again indicating profit booking at higher levels and at the same time hedging of portfolios with puts, ahead of the big events lined up for the week.On the technical indicators side, the markets are clearly trying to move higher, but the India VIX (Volatility index) is making lower lows , indicating that there may be a spike in the volatility, any time, which is visible from the huge premium of nifty futures and the increasing cost of carry. Going forward the domestic news flow will overpower the market for the rest of the week and it is advisable to trade with caution and not to carry any large positions till the picture becomes a bit clearer. The levels to watch for Nifty will be 5477, 5519 and 5539 on the upside and 5395 and 5354 on the downside. The international markets are trading flat on the back of mixed reactions from the economic data from the U.S. and Europe.

TREND CHANGE ??

Nifty opened with a gap up and made a high of 5438, before closing the day at 5429,up by 1.31%. It is to be noted that the momentum was maintained throughout the day, unlike yesterday where it pared all its gains before closing. The star performers for the day were Sterlite, Sesa Goa, Sail, Gail and JP Associates. The overall market breadth was positive with 974 advances to 509 declines, while the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 872 crores and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 434 crores. On the futures side, Nifty futures closed at 5468, with 39 points premium, on increasing volumes and addition of open interest. On the options side the PCR increased to 1.12. On the call side there was massive shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5500 calls, with a corresponding increase in open interest from 5100 to 5600 puts. Today’s activity on the F&O side indicates profit booking at higher levels and possible hedging of the portfolios with addition of puts at all levels, ahead of the key events about to unfold from tomorrow onwards. On the technical indicators side, the continuous rise in the last three consecutive sessions has led to change in trend, both on the daily and the weekly charts. While the future outcome will be decided in the days to come, the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5450, 5467 and 5496 on the upside and 5371 and 5352 on the downside. The U.S. and the European markets are strongly trading in the green on the back of strong retail sales data from U.S. and ratings upgrade of Greece by Fitch.

CRUCIAL DAYS AHEAD

Nifty opened the day with a positive bias and made a high of 5421, but stayed range bound for the entire day , before closing at 5359 , marginally higher by 0.94%, obviously no guesses, the major contribution was made by Bank Nifty which gave a thumbs up, to the unexpected cut in CRR by the RBI, much before the quarterly monetary policy review, while the other star performers for the day were, RIL, LT, SBIN, REL INFRA and BHEL. At one point of the day the market gave away all its gains , but the overall market breadth was positive with 883 advances to 592 declines and both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1298 crores and 203 crores respectively. On the futures side, Nifty Futures settled at 5388, with loss in open interest, indicating some profit booking , with reduction in premium from 38 points on last Thursday to 29 points yesterday. On the options side the PCR reduced from 1.16 to 1.06. The 5200 and 5300 calls lost the maximum open interest for the second consecutive session, while the 5500 call added the maximum open interest. On the put side 5400 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 put, while the 5300 put shed the maximum open interest, more than half of the open interest added on Friday. This entire activity on the F&O side indicates market participants using the rally to book profits. On the technical indicators side, the gap up closing of Friday and yesterday's positive close, has created a positive momentum, but the trend has to continue for few more sessions before it can be confirmed. The key levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5411 and 5453 on the upside and 5300 and 5275 on the downside. The domestic data was encouraging, with the  IIP data showing the fastest growth in the last 7 months,during the month of January. The international markets were trading flat amid growth concerns from China. Going forward this week, all eyes will be on the  Union Budget and the RBI policy review.

WAIT AND WATCH

Nifty opened with a negative bias, taking cues from the international markets, which were deep in the red on Tuesday, but somehow managed to close on a flat note, with apparently no damage, mainly because market participants were unwilling to carry positions in this truncated week. Nifty future closed at 5258, 38 points premium to the spot, marginally higher than the last session, but the futures closed after considerable loss in open interest, which was almost the same amount that was added in the previous session. On the options side there was considerable addition in open interest right from 5100 to 5600 calls for the second consecutive day, while on the Put side the 5300 put shed the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 and 5400 puts, while there was heightened activity in the 5000 put, adding the maximum open interest with huge volume, followed by the 5100 put. This entire activity on the options side indicates shorting at the higher levels and the entire activity getting concentrated between the 5000 to 5200 levels on the Nifty, which will act as a decisive range in the days to come. The PCR reduced from 1.09 to 0.96, the advance -  decline figures were 501 advances to 994 declines, and FIIs and DIIs which turned net sellers to the tune of 504 crores and 129 crores respectively, confirmed the negative trend. The technical indicators are still in sell mode and the key level to watch out for Nifty on a closing basis will be 5150, which acted as a breakout level on 2^nd February 2012, any close below this level may create panic and take Nifty to 5060 levels. On the international news front, the U.S. initial jobless claims data was higher than expected, while the ECB kept the benchmark rates unchanged and the president of ECB expressed confidence that the Eurozone economy, may start improving in the later half of 2012 and the LTRO will help in stabilising the eurozone economy in the short term, the European and asian markets were trading in green for most part of the day.

Stock Pick

SBIN – Short 2167, 2188, SL  - 2193. TGT – 2110, 2076

LT  –    Short 1255, 1273, SL - 1297. TGT – 1214, 1191

HERE WE GO DOWN.

The markets opened with a extremely positive bias, hoping for favourable election results and  the Nifty spot  made a high of 5382, but as the day progressed and the situation became more clear, the euphoria died down and there was selling across the board , with 420 advances to 1061 declines to sum up the entire market breadth. To make things worse, the FIIs turned net sellers to the tune of 241 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 180 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5250, 28 points premium to the spot, with huge volumes and considerable addition of open interest, indicating shorts building up in the system. It is to be noted that the Nifty futures premium, has reduced from 52 points to 28 points in the last four trading sessions, indicating the market participants are not willing to pay the high cost of carry and risk premium, while the PCR has increased from 0.95 to 1.09 indicating the bears are gaining the upper hand. On the options side there was considerable build up in open interest from the 5100 to 5600 calls with corresponding shedding of open interest from 5200 - 5600 puts except the 5500 Put. All the technical indicators have already confirmed the intermediate down trend for the past few sessions. With the political situation almost clear and the expected CRR cut in the quarterly monetary policy review, already priced in, and not so comforting news from the international markets like China's scaling down of GDP projection and the private bondholders not expecting Greece to meet the looming deadline of debt swap, the U.S. and European markets which have mainly rallied in the past few weeks on the back of good news may be looking for an excuse  to correct. Keeping all these factors in mind, going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5299 and 5341 on the upside and 5164, 5149 and 5094 on the downside.

Stock Picks

LT -  Short 1268, 1285 SL - 1300. TGT - 1208, 1181

Axis Bank - Buy on dips between 1071 - 1090

INDECISION.

Nifty opened with a positive bias and made a high of 5392,  but could not retain the early gains and made a low of 5315, before closing at 5359 marginally up by 19 points. The entire session was a lackluster one, with 725 advances to 763 declines , while FIIs were net buyers to the tune of  578 crores, the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 71 crores.On the futures side, Nifty futures closed at 5391, with a 32 points premium to the spot and a moderate loss in open interest. On the options side, 5500 Call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 and 5600 calls and on the put side 5100 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 put , while most in- the money puts shed open interest. All this indicates a certain level of uncertainty in the market, before the big election results next week. The technical indicators show indecision period in the market, but the key levels to watch out for Nifty, in the coming week will be 5395 and 5432 on the upside and 5309, 5278 and 5254 on the downside. On the international front , there was good news from the U.S. with the payroll estimates expected to be highest in the month of January, since last April, further increasing consumer spending and there was also some relief in the form of softening in the international crude prices.

Stock Picks

LT - Buy 1300 SL 1273. TGT - 1327, 1342, 1375

HERO MOTOCORP -  Buy 1931 SL 1911. TGT - 1968, 1982

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD

Nifty opened the day with a negative bias at 5336 and made a intraday low of 5297 amid heavy selling in the banking and infrastructure space, mainly due to the poor GDP data for the third quarter, while Maruti was the star performer of the day with a 5.20% gain. The overall market breadth was negative with 583 advances to 893 declines, while the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 126 crores and the DIIs sold to the of 9.97 crores. This was the first time in the last five trading sessions that FIIs were net sellers, which may become the deciding factor in the days to come. On the futures side Nifty futures closed at 5391, with a 52 points premium to the spot, with a moderate fall in the open interest, while on the options side 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 and 5300 calls, while on the put side 5400 put shed the maximum open interest followed by the 5100 and 5200 puts and the PCR decreased to 1.03. This indicates some amount of profit booking in the in- the money puts with corresponding call writing at higher levels like 5400 and 5500 which will act as overhead resistance in the days to come. The technical indicators have confirmed this trend in the last few trading sessions. The levels to watch out for nifty will be 5367 and 5411 on the upside and 5265 and 5225 on the downside. The U.S. markets are trading higher mainly on the basis of good corporate earnings and jobless claims data and also supported by a strong rally in the European markets after the ECB's LTRO operation helped spur demand.

Stock picks

LT - Short 1307,1315,1329 SL 1346. TGT  1259, 1238, 1216

HEROMOTO - Short 1972, 1985 SL 2001. TGT 1910, 1886

INDECISIVE OR TREND CHANGE ??

Nifty opened on a strong note, but as the day progressed, the market gave up all its gains, that it had factored  in due to the LTRO declared by the ECB .On the domestic front the core industrial growth figures were not encouraging and growth concerns spooked the market, which led to some profit booking. As suggested yesterday Nifty faced a resistance at 5457 level, but managed to close above the crucial level of 5323. The Nifty futures closed at 5439, still at 54 points premium to the spot,with considerable addition of open interest, which is quite perplexing. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of  579 crores while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 431 crores. The market breadth also turned flattish at the end of the session, with 867 advances to 622 declines. The overall Put - Call Ratio increased to 1.10 , followed by maximum addition of open interest at 5600 and 5400 calls while on the put side 5000 and 5300 puts added the maximum open interest. The cumulative open interest on the put side is far greater than the call side, indicating that the scale may be tilting towards the bears. The pace of rise in the VIX (Volatility Index) and cost of carry of the nifty futures indicate the correction might not be over. Going forward crucial levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5444 and 5504 on the upside and 5338 and 5296 on the down side and every rise should be used, to open fresh shorts.

Stock Picks for the day

TATA Steel -  Buy 448 - 454, SL 442. TGT - 464, 471

LT           - Sell 1336, 1356, SL 1386. TGT  - 1276, 1246.
AXIS Bank - Sell 1204, 1231, SL 1253. TGT - 1150, 1133.