CAUTIOUS

The markets opened on a very flat note, after yesterday’s big fall and traded range-bound till the start of the second half of the trading session, but from this point the markets started recovering from their day’s low and ultimately closed near their day’s high till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 22 & 75 points respectively. The market breadth improved considerably and ultimately closed on a positive note with 825 advances to 654 declines. On the sectoral front, the Pharma sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking, Auto & Media sectors. On the individual stocks front, Hindalco, Maruti, Tata Motors, Sesa Goa & Cipla were the top five Nifty gainers, while Rel Infra. Gail, Bhel, ONGC & Ultratech Cement were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 248 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 98 crores in the cash markets.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index future to the tune of 169 crores and net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 202 crores. Nifty future settled at 5646, with 26 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.84, along with a fall in the India VIX by 5.08%. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5600 & 5900 calls. On the Put options side, the 5200 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5600 & 5500 puts, while the 5700 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 & 5000 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the futures markets indicates some level of profit booking along with sector and stock specific buying in the cash as well as the futures market.

On the technical side, spot Nifty closed at 5620, after breaching the 5600 level on an intraday basis and finally it seems to have broken down from the trading range of the past thirteen sessions but tomorrow’s session will decide the trend. The technical indicators on the daily as well as the weekly charts are also indicating a downtrend, but today’s fall in the India VIX may limit the downside. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5635 & 5656 on the upside, and 5594, 5568 and 5553 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose today, but snapped two months of successive gains to fall in October as the euphoria over economic reforms petered out and the central bank kept rates on hold and now the global events are expected to determine the currency’s direction in the near term. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 53.80, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.08 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a fairly positive note, while the European markets have closed in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses after two consecutive days of closure. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading down by 0.22% at 108.86 $/bbl, while the WTI crude future is trading up by 0.65% at 86.24 $/bbl and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.06 % at 3.73 $/MMBtu.

SIDEWARDS

Once again the markets opened on a negative note, and the market breadth worsened as the session progressed and with just one and half hours left for the end of the session, the markets touched their intraday lows, but from this point onwards, the markets tried to recover some of their losses and ultimately both the indices closed near their day’s low. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 41 & 133 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Banking, Energy & Media sectors. On the individual stocks front, M&M, Hero Motocorp, Bajaj Auto, Ambuja Cement & GAIL were the top five Nifty gainers, while PNB, JP Associate, Power Grid, ITC & Hind Unilever were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 199 and 90 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the story was the same as FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 353 and 50 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5699, with premium falling to 35 points to the spot, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the options side, PCR stood at 0.96, along with an increase in the India VIX by 5.10%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5900 & 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5200 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5300 & 5700 puts. The entire activity in the cash market indicates sector specific selling, while in the F&O markets, there was call writing at higher levels along with corresponding addition of long positions on the Put options side.

On the technical side, spot Nifty continued its hide and seek with the 5700 level and once again closed below the 5700 mark, making it the thirteenth consecutive session of sideways movement. This indicates complete indecision among the market participants and looking at the buy and sell figures in the cash as well as the F&O markets, this may continue for some more time, before any change of trend happens. The biggest event to watch out next week will be the RBI’s quarterly monetary policy review. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5693 and 5722 on the upside and 5629, 5612 & 5583 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee closed at 53.56, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.63 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed deep in the red, while the European markets closed on a positive note and the U.S. markets closed have closed almost flat. On the Energy futures front , both the Brent and WTI crude have closed up by 0.98% & 0.27% at 109.55 & 86.28 $/bbl, while the Natural Gas future has closed down by 0.99% at 3.40 $/MMBtu.

CONSOLIDATION

The markets opened on a mildly positive note, and continued to trade range-bound for the initial one and a half hours of the trading session, but from this point onwards the markets made a almost vertical ascent and traded with a mildly positive bias till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed with modest gains near their day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 14 & 49 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 603 advances to 903 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, with most of the sectors closing either with modest gains or losses. On the individual stocks front, M&M, IDFC, Hero Motocorp, HDFC & Lupin were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while Dr. Reddy, Bank of Baroda, PNB, SBIN & Ranbaxy were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 551 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of mere 35 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures, to the tune of 904 crores, while they were net sellers in Stock futures, to the tune of 731 crores. Nifty November future settled at 5747, with a massive 42 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the Options side, PCR increased to 1.07, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.39%. On the November Call options side, the 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900, 5700 & 6000 calls, while on the November Put options side, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in cash market indicates that the buying was stock or sector specific, while in the F&O markets it was mainly rollover activity, but the huge premium in Nifty future seems to be unsustainable in relation to the PCR.

On the technical side, once again spot Nifty managed to sneak past the 5700 mark, on very low volumes and it is to be noted that Nifty has consolidated in this range of close to two weeks and is still trading above most of its short and long term moving averages, giving a notion that things might turn around, but the extremely low volumes, market breadth and F&O data suggest the other way around. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5720 & 5735 on the upside and 5687, 5666 & 5627 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose today, as a revival in global demand for risk prompted foreign banks to sell dollars but dollar demand from oil refiners limited bigger gains. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 53.56, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.64 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a very positive note, while the European markets have closed on a mixed note, and the U.S. markets were initially trading with losses on the back of data, which showed Americans signed fewer contracts than forecast in September to purchase previously owned homes, but rose later on the back of better than estimated jobless claims and corporate earnings data. On the Energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading almost flat at 108.28 & 85.79 $/bbl respectively, while Natural gas future is trading down by 0.57% at 3.43 $/MMBtu.

 

DILEMMA

The markets opened on very negative note, and the market breadth worsened as the session progressed because the markets witnessed across the sector selling and ultimately both the indices closed near their days’ low till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 26 & 83 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 603 advances to 884 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser followed by the IT, Energy, Auto & Banking sectors. On the individual stocks front, LT, BPCL, Siemens, IDFC & ICICI Bank were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while Jindal Steel, Kotak Bank, Hero Motocorp, Hindalco & ITC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 252 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 299 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of mere 88 crores, and net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 368 crores. Nifty future settled at 5695, along with a considerable loss of open interest, while the Nifty November future settled at 42 points premium to the spot. On the Options side, PCR fell to 0.98, along with a sharp rise in the India VIX by 5.14%. On the Nifty November series Call options side, the 6000 call has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5900 & 5700 calls, while on the Nifty November series put options side, the 5600 put added the has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500,5700 & 5300 puts. The activity in the cash as well as futures side is quite perplexing, because FIIs were net buyers in cash markets and net sellers in Stock futures. On the F&O side rollovers took place at a hectic pace, due to holiday shortened trading week, just before the expiry.

On the technical side, once again spot Nifty fell short of closing above the 5700 mark, on falling volumes and to make things difficult the corporate results declared today and the global headwinds also aided the fall. The movement of Nifty over the next session will be guided mainly by the F&O rollovers, but still the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5714 & 5731 on the upside and 5662, 5639 & 5621 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee weakened today as dollar demand from oil firms and gold importers looking to meet month-end commitments weighed along with losses in domestic share markets. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 53.74, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.78 for the day.

On the international markets front, the global stock markets are posting their worst three-day selloff since July and commodities erased their year’s gains as companies like Du Pont, 3M and Alfa Laval AB  reports earnings that spurred concern the economy is weakening. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude future is trading down by 1.51% at 107.78 $/bbl, and the WTI crude future is trading down by 2.76% at 86.19 $/bbl, while the Natural Gas future is trading up by 2.33% at 3.53 $/MMBtu.

WAIT AND WATCH

The markets opened on a very dull note and continued to trade in the negative zone for the initial two hours of the first half of the trading session, but slowly recovered from this point onwards and traded with a strong positive bias till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed on a fairly positive note. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 33 & 111 points respectively. The rise was mainly on the back of better than expected corporate results. The market breadth also recovered significantly and closed marginally negative with 705 advances to 793 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, Pharma & IT sectors, while the FMCG sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, LT, TCS, Bharti Airtel & Axis bank were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while Jindal Steel, Ambuja Cement, Bank of Baroda, Hero Motocorp & ITC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 242 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 138 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 236 & 295 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5725 with 8 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR increased to 1.18, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 10.32%. On the Call options side, with a exception of the 5800 call which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 and 5800 puts, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 puts. The entire activity in the Cash as well as the F&O markets, indicates sector specific buying continued for the second consecutive session in the cash market, along with hectic rollovers happening in the Index futures and options side, but a major fall in the India VIX will provide some temporary relief to the markets in the short term.

On the technical side, spot Nifty once again managed to conquer the 5700 mark, albeit on very thin volumes and managed to close above most of its short and long term moving averages for the 11^th consecutive session. Today’s move on very low volumes, will carry weightage, only if we see two or more consecutive moves like this , otherwise as of now, it should be considered on as a one off move just before the future expiry on Thursday. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5747 & 5763 on the upside, and 5660, 5635 & 5616 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its two session losing streak on the back of dollar sales, likely on behalf of foreign investors who were looking to bid at the auction of unused limits in government and corporate debt, that was taking place later in the day. The partially convertible rupee, closed at 53.47, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.51, for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian, markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses, as investors eagerly watch the third quarter results. On the Energy futures front the Brent crude oil future is trading down by 0.20% at 109.89$/bbl and the WTI crude oil future is trading down by 0.73% at 89.75 $/bbl, while the Natural Gas future is also trading down by 4.16% at 3.46 $/MMBtu.

DIRECTIONLESS

The markets continued their zig zag movement, with days of marginal positive and negative closes, and once again opened on a very flat note, and continued to trade range-bound till the end of the first-half of the trading session, but immediately at the start of the second half of the trading session, the markets started falling sharply and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets touched their intraday lows and ultimately both the indices closed near their day’s low, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 34 & 110 points respectively for the week. The market breadth was also negative with 1388 advances to 1798 declines. On the sectoral front, the Metals sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Capital goods, Banking and Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, ITC, Ambuja Cement, HCL Tech, Dr. Reddy’s & DLF were the top five gainers for the day, while Hindalco, Jindal Steel, BPCL, Gail & Grasim were the top five losers for the day. On the Institutional side, there was hardly any participation, with both FIIs and DIIs turning net buyers to the tune of mere 80 & 112 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the story was the same, with FIIs turning net sellers, both In Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 282 & 26 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5688, with just 4 points premium to the spot, along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.96, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.49%. On the Call options side, 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 5000 to 6000 calls, while on the Put Options side, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O markets indicates, that only sector specific buying is taking place in the cash markets, while in  the F&O markets, the activity is clearly shifting to the next series and the rollovers have started gathering pace.

On the technical side, spot Nifty settled below the elusive 5700 mark once again, with a big spike in volume and continued to trade in the range of 5630 to 5720 for the eighth consecutive session. The global headwinds are also making things difficult. It makes a perfect case for a breakdown and the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5710 & 5737 on the upside and 5654, 5633 & 5609 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee posted its biggest weekly decline in four months, on the back of huge dollar buying from state run oil and defence companies, along with demand from foreign banks. The partially convertible rupee, finally closed at 53.84, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.99 for the week.

On the international markets front, except the Asian markets, the European and the U.S. markets closed deep in the red for the week. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures closed, down by 2.03% & 2.23% at 110.14 & 90.05 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future closed, up by 0.84% at 3.61 $/MMBtu for the week.

DECEPTIVE

The markets opened on a fairly positive note, tracking their Asian peers, but lost their momentum after the initial one and a half hours of trade and continued to trade range-bound throughout the day and with just half an hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets made a smart pullback and ultimately both the indices ended up almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 12 & 33 points respectively. The market breadth was negative with 659 advances to 827 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer for the day, followed by the Pharma and Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, Lupin, Tata Power, Cairn, Ranbaxy & LT were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while DLF, Ambuja Cement, GAIL, ACC & TCS were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, in a stark contrast, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a mere 36 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 248 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net buyers, in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of mere 197 & 37 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5669, with just 9 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate loss of open interest, for the 8^th consecutive session. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.90, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.57%. On the Call options side, with the exception of the 5800 & 5400 calls, which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5600 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O markets indicates, complete lack of participation from the market participants, in the absence of which the markets are directionless right now and at the same time continuous fall in the India VIX, indicates markets are not expecting any major activity in the days to come and may trade range-bound for few more sessions.

On the technical side, spot Nifty settled at 5660, with a sharp fall in volume and broke yesterday’s low, indicating that although it may look like a lackluster market, the undercurrent is getting weaker day by day and we will see new lows in the day’s to come. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5684 & 5700 on the upside and 5620, 5596 & 5584 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee remained unchanged today, as the positive impact from the gains in the Euro after Moody’s affirmed Spain’s investment grade rating was offset by dollar demand from oil and defence related companies. The partially convertible rupee finally settled at 52.87, while the USD-INR future settled at 52.96 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a fairly positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading with modest gains as jump in housing starts overshadowed disappointing results from IBM & Intel Corp. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with losses at 113.31 & 92.38 $/bbl respectively, on the back of unexpected jump in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories, while Natural Gas future is trading up by 0.48% at 3.45 $/MMBtu.

DOWNTREND

To everyone’s surprise, the markets opened on a fairly positive note and continued to trade with a positive bias till the first hour of the second half of the trading session, but from this point onwards the markets started falling, but the ferocity of the fall, caught everyone by surprise and with just half an hour left for the end of the session, the markets touched their intraday lows and ultimately both the indices closed near the lowest point of the day. The market breadth also turned negative till the end of the session with 537 advances to 986 declines. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 39 and 136 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Midcap, Energy, Pharma & Infra sectors. On the individual stocks front, Axis Bank, Maruti, Hero Motocorp, Bharti Airtel & Cairn were the top five Nifty gainers of the day, while DLF, M&M, ACC, Tata Motors & Rel Infra were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 204 crores, while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 595 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 133 & 151 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5652, with just 4 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR fell to 0.86, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.08%. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 call, while the 5900 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000 call. On the Put options side, the 5700 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5400 & 5300 puts, while the 5500 put added the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the Cash as well as the F&O space, indicates little participation of FIIs in the cash as well as the F&O markets, along with unwinding of longs in Index futures and call writing on the higher side of the market range.

On the technical side, Nifty continued its struggle to cross the 5700 mark, but closed at the lowest level in the last seven sessions, with a big spike in volume and as suggested, in the last article, it touched its major support level of 5640 today. The downtrend is clearly established now and Nifty will continue make new lows, with intermittent spikes due to favorable news from the international markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be, 5696 and 5704 on the upside and 5617, 5592 & 5565 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its two day losing streak as demand for global risk assets was bolstered by better than expected U.S and German economic indicators and speculation that Spain may soon ask for a bailout. The Rupee finally closed at 52.87, while the USD-INR future settled at 52.98 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a fairly positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading on a very strong note, on the back of a more than forecasted rise in industrial production and corporate earnings which topped the estimates. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading down by, 0.37 & 0.10% at 113.97 & 92.19 $/bbl respectively and the Natural Gas future is also trading down by 1.65% at 3.42 $/MMBtu.

LACKLUSTRE

As expected, the markets opened on flat note and continued to trade range-bound till the start of the second half of the trading session, but from this point onwards the markets made an almost vertical ascent and touched their intraday highs within the first hour of the second half of the trading session and traded in the positive zone till the end of the session. The market breadth also improved considerably and ended up marginally positive with 764 advances to 730 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking and Pharma sectors, on the other hand the IT sector was the biggest looser for the day. On the individual stocks front, Hindalco, Siemens, Cipla, BHEL & Airtel were the top five Nifty gainers , while Maruti, Infosys, Sesa Goa, Power Grid, & Lupin were the top five Nifty loosers for the day. On the institutional side, there was hardly any participation with FIIs turning net buyers to the tune of mere 20 crores and DIIs turning net sellers to the tune of mere 86 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 284 & 28 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5703, with 16 points premium to the spot, along with moderate loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.99, along with a fall in the India VIX by 3.58%. On the Call options side, with an exception of the 5400 & 5800 calls which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 put, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 puts. The entire activity in the Cash as well as F&O markets, indicates lack of participation from the market participants, in the absence of which profit booking continued in the Index futures and options side.

On the technical side, once again Nifty closed below the 5700 mark, with marginal increase in volumes in a complete lackluster session. Nifty has been stuck in the 100 point range from 5650 to 5750 for the last six sessions and the worse than expected corporate results are adding to the misery, resulting in complete loss of interest from the market participants, which may lead to a breakdown from these levels, very soon. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5703 & 5720 on the upside and 5660, 5640 & 5617 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee, the fell for a second consecutive session, after a stronger than expected inflation data, pushed back hopes for a rate cut, that investors had hoped. The rupee finally closed at 53.01, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.03 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed with modest gains and the U.S. markets are also trading in the green, on the back of better than estimated retail sales data and corporate earnings, which overshadowed a slump in commodity prices. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude future is trading down by 0.08% at 113.50 $/bbl while the WTI crude futures is trading down by 1.12% at 91.26 $/bbl and the Natural Gas future is trading down by 3.42% at 3.48 $/MMBtu.

UNCERTAIN

The markets continued their downward journey, after a pause on Thursday and once again opened on a somber note, but regained their lost ground in the first two hours and remained in the green for close to an hour, but started falling once again and the market breadth turned worse, as the session progressed and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The market breadth was also very negative with 655 advances to 843 declines. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 32 and 130 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest loser of the day, followed by the Banking and Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, ACC, Lupin, Ambuja Cement, JP Associate and Grasim were the top five Nifty gainers, while Infosys, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, IDFC & Wipro were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs & DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 201 & 188 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 288 & 280 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5686, with just 10 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Option side, PCR stood at 0.86, while the India VIX stayed the same. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 5900 calls, and on the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5400 puts, while the 5800 put lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5900 put. The entire activity in the Cash as well as the F&O markets, indicates sector specific selling as well unwinding of longs with corresponding build up of shorts in the F&O markets.

On the technical side, Nifty is finding it hard to hold on to the elusive 5700 mark, for the sixth straight session and the constant downward slide with falling volumes and unwinding of longs, along with negative signals from the technical indicators, indicates that the bears are tightening their grip on the markets and its is only a matter of time, after which we will see all the major supports being taken out. To make things worse the economic indicators are getting worse on a y-o-y and m-o-m basis , indicating the slowdown is getting deeper and the effects of which, will be clearly visible in the corporate earnings season. Only one thing can help the markets stay afloat and that is liquidity and with several downgrades on the individual stocks front in the offing, value buying will emerge and liquidity will chase those stocks at much lower levels, so from a traders point of view, one should take selective calls with strict stop losses and from a investor point of view, buy on dips should be the strategy.  The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5714 & 5752 on the upside and 5636, 5622 and 5581 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee edged lower on Friday, to post its biggest weekly loss in three and a half months, weighed down by the dollar demand from oil importers and also tracking losses in the domestic share market. The Rupee finally closed at 52.80, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 52.89 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a mixed note, while the European markets ended deep in the red, and the U.S. markets also closed with their biggest weekly loss since June as the IMF reduced its global growth forecasts and the projections from the AMD and Alcoa disappointed investors. On the Energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude futures closed down by 0.94 & 0.23 % at 114.62 & 91.86 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future, closed up by 0.19% at 3.61 $/MMBtu.

CAUTIOUS

The markets opened on a very flat note, and continued to trade range-bound, with a negative bias till the first hour of the second half of the trading session, but at that very juncture, the news of withdrawal of fertilizer subsidy and assurance from the finance minister regarding more steps to achieve fiscal prudence, hit the markets, which gave the markets the much needed fillip, and post that event the markets made a almost vertical ascent and ultimately both the indices, closed near their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 56 & 174 points respectively. The market breadth also turned positive with 922 advances to 565 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the FMCG, Metal and IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, DLF, PNB, Bank of Baroda and BHEL were the top five Nifty gainers, while Lupin, Cipla, Wipro, Maruti & Ultratech Cement were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1043 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 573 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 126 & 312 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5739, with a massive premium of 31 points to the spot, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR stood at 1.0, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.02%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5500 calls, while there was a uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 and 5800 puts, while the 5500 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5300 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates sector specific buying in the cash markets along with profit booking in the Index futures and options. There was also selective addition of longs on the higher side in the call options, and put writing on the higher side of the market.

On the technical side, after a day’s gap once again Nifty managed to close above the 5700 mark with marginal increase in volumes. Nifty made a top of 5815 on 5^th October 2012, and since then, it has been stuck between 5650 and 5700 levels for the last four sessions, on very thin volumes and the reduced activity in the F&O markets suggest Nifty is in a indecision period and it may take longer than expected to take out the 5800 mark. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5740 and 5773 on the upside and 5655, 5631 & 5575 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped it four day losing streak, boosted by dollar sales from exporters and a late rebound in the domestic stock markets, which brought some foreign fund inflows. The Rupee finally closed at 52.68, while the near month USD-INR futures settled at 52.74 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a very strong note and the U.S. markets are trading almost flat with a positive bias as American jobless claims fell to a four year low and Italy’s bond yields fell after a debt sale. On the Energy futures front, the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up, by close to a percent at 115.31 & 91.97 $/bbl respectively , even after a more than expected weekly increase in the U.S. crude oil inventories while the Natural gas future is trading up 3.22% at 3.58 $/MMBtu, after a unexpected fall in the weekly U.S. natural gas inventories.

DESCENT

Once again the benchmark indices opened on a bad note, tracking their Asian peers and continued to drift downwards throughout the trading session and closed at their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 52 & 162 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with 395 advances to 1130 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Midcap, Energy, IT and Pharma sectors. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, HCL Tech, PNB, Hero Motocorp & ITC were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while DLF, Siemens, IDFC, Rel Infra and State Bank of India were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 408 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 396 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives front, FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of a massive 1012 crores and 424 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5672, with 20 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side the PCR stood at 1.0 with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.18%. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900, 5600, 5800 & 6000 calls, while on the Put options side, except the 5400 & 5500 puts, which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 puts. The entire activity in the Cash as well as the F&O markets, saw massive unwinding of long positions along with Call writing at higher levels, indicating for the first time in the last four sessions that the bears are making a comeback.

On the technical side, Nifty broke the 5700 mark on very thin volumes and found support at the crucial level of 5650 and although Nifty is still trading above most of its short and long term moving averages, the fall in volumes along with unwinding of longs indicates lack of confidence, and to make things worse the global headwinds are aggravating the bad situation. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5676 & 5698 on the upside and 5637, 5624 and 5598 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its lowest level in two weeks after rating agency said downgrade risks remain even after the recent spate of reforms. The Rupee finally closed at 53.04, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.17 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red, and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses amid concerns over earnings and global economic growth. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading up by 0.37% at 114.86 $/bbl, on the other hand the WTI crude oil future is trading down by 0.53% at 91.90 $/bbl. The Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.11% at  3.50  $/MMBtu.

INDECISIVE

The markets opened on a fairly positive note, and touched their intraday highs within the first two and a half hours of the trading session, but with  just one hour left for the start of the second half of the trading session, the markets started falling sharply and touched their intraday lows at the start of the second half of the trading session, but to everyone's surprise, once again the markets made a smart recovery and recovered most of their losses till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 29 & 84 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking, Pharma & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ultratech Cement, LT, Sun Pharma, Infosys & Ranbaxy were the top five Nifty gainers, while GAIL, Bharti Airtel, BHEl, Hindalco & Siemens were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 614 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 431 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any participation, with FIIs turning net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of a mere 7 & 87 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5724, with the premium narrowing down to just 19 points, along with a marginal fall in open interest. On the Options side, PCR increased to 1.09, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.15%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 and 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O markets, indicates little participation from the market participants for the second consecutive day, along with marginal addition of long positions on the options side.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to close above the 5700 mark, with sharp increase in volumes, indicating strong support, coming around yesterday’s closing level. Although not much has changed on the daily technical indicators side, it might take a few more session for the markets to find a direction, but with global headwinds, the markets may see a few more dull sessions. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5729 & 5754 on the upside and 5678, 5652 & 5625 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee touched its lowest level of the week, today after falling for three consecutive sessions as dollar demand from large oil importers, and broad dollar short covering, offset inflows tied to the gains in domestic shares. The Rupee finally settled at 52.72 for the day, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 52.79.

On the international markets front the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red, and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses, as investors await the start of the earnings season and IMF cut growth forecast for the global economy. On the Energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 2.45 & 3.72% at 114.56 & 92.63 $/bbl respectively. The Natural Gas future is also trading up by 2.22 % at 3.47 $/MMBtu.

DOWNTREND ??

The markets opened on a somber note, tracking their Asian peers, and continued to trade with a negative bias till the start of the second half of the trading session, but from this point onwards the rate of descent became very sharp and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 71 & 229 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative, with 664 advances to 841 declines. On the sectoral front, the Energy sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Banking, IT, Auto & Infra sectors, while the Pharma sector was the sole gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front Sun Pharma, Asian Paint, Bharti Airtel, Ultratech cement & Cairn India were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, on the other hand DLF, Reliance Industries, RelInfra, BHEL & Hindalco were the top five Nifty Losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 564 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 779 crores, in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of 229 crores and net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 434 crores. Nifty future settled at 5701, with the premium narrowing down to 25 points, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, PCR fell to 0.99, along with an increase in the India VIX by 2.32%. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900, 5800 & 6000 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5500 puts on the other hand the 5300 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5800 puts. The entire activity in the Cash as well as the F&O markets, indicates little participation by the market participants in both the segments along with some profit booking and opportunistic call writing at higher levels, in the face of uncertainty surrounding the international markets.

On the technical side, spot Nifty broke the 5700 mark on decreasing volumes and finally settled at 5676 for the day. Although it may be too early to suggest a downtrend, but the way the markets have fallen over the past two sessions, as a mark of caution ,one should book partial profits and trade with strict stop losses. The daily and weekly technical indicators, have also turned negative over the last few sessions. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5730 & 5766 on the upside and 5644, 5612 and 5577  on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its one week low today, as custodian banks brought dollars on the back of sharp losses in shares, while global risk assets weakened on global economy concerns. The Rupee finally settled at 52.64, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 52.75 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed deep in the red, and the U.S. markets also trading with losses after Apple Inc. paced a slump in the technology companies and as European finance ministers  meet to discuss  the regions government debt crisis. On the energy futures side, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by close to half a percent, at 111.86 & 89.51 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading almost flat at 3.40 $/MMBtu.

GRITTY

The benchmark indices opened on a flat note, but were in for a rude shock, when a freak trade happened and Nifty plunged 927 points within a minute and investors lost crores of rupees within a few seconds, while the exact cause is yet to be known but it was a very bad end to a jubilant week for the markets, but after the initial shock, the markets recovered the next moment and traded range-bound till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down, by 40 and 120 points respectively for the week. The market breadth also turned extremely negative, with 450 advances to 1078 declines. On the individual stocks front, Tata Motors, Hind Unilever, M&M, ONGC & LT were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while HDFC, HCL- Tech, Rel Infra, JP Associate & Wipro were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, the picture was quite different, where FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a massive 4352 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of a mere 189 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, surprisingly the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 616 and 433 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5776, with 29 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.13, along with a 2.07% increase in the India VIX. On the Call Options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900, 6000 & 5700 calls, while on the Put Options side, the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5600 puts and on the other hand the 5500 put added the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates massive build up of long positions in the cash as well as the options side, indicating the strong under-current of this market rally.

On the technical side, spot Nifty closed comfortably above the 5700 mark for the fifth consecutive session, with slight fall in volumes. The breakout above the 5450 mark is two weeks old now and Nifty is still trading above all its short and long term moving averages. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5788 & 5830 on the upside and 5730, 5714 & 5682 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell on Friday, following large outflows from a private equity firm’s stake sale. The Rupee finally settled at 51.85, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 52.08 for the week.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a very strong note, and the U.S. markets also rose, sending the S&P 500 above the highest closing level, since 2007, as an unexpected drop in the American unemployment rate bolstered confidence in the world’s largest economy. On the energy future’s front, the Brent crude oil future closed down by 0.50% at 112.02 $/bbl, and the WTI crude oil future closed down by 2.0% at 89.88 $/bbl, while the Natural Gas future also closed down by 0.29% at 3.39 $/MMBtu.