ANXIETY

The markets opened on a very weak note, ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy tomorrow and continued to loose ground since inception and ultimately both the indices closed at their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 55 & 155 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with 396 advances to 928 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Banking, Midcap & Energy sectors. On the individual stocks front, Jindal steel, Tata Motors, Asian Paint, Ultratech Cement & Grasim were the top five Nifty gainers, while Sun Pharma, JP Associate, IDFC, Sesa Goa & Hindalco were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were  net sellers to the tune of 232 & 101 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 24 & 203 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 119 crores and net buyers in Stock options to the tune of 33 crores. Nifty future settled at 5877, with a premium of 45 points to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.0, along with a massive jump in the India VIX 8.76%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000 & 5800 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5500 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, shorting in the Index futures along with call writing on the higher side of the market and long positions being built on the Put options side.

On the technical side, the downward journey resumed today and Nifty touched new lows and closed well below its support levels with falling volumes, as there was very little participation ahead of the policy announcement tomorrow. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5877, 5890 on the upside and 5808, 5786 & 5744 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee snapped its gaining streak in the last four days, on the back of dollar demand from oil importers and caution ahead of the Central bank policy review that may give cues about its stance after recent measures to defend the currency. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.41, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.66 for the day.

On the international markets front the Asian markets have closed on a relatively weak note and the European markets have closed almost flat, while the U.S. markets are also trading with losses as fewer Americans signed contracts in June to buy previously owned homes. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally up at 107.59 & 105.36 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading down by 2.62% at 3.47 $/MMBtu.

DOWNTREND

The markets opened on a positive note on the first day of the new F&O series, and continued to trade in the positive for the entire first half of the trading session, but just at the start of the second half of the trading session the market breadth started turning negative and both the indices touched their intraday lows within the next two hours. The markets could not recover much from that point and ultimately both the indices closed very near to their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 21 & 56 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 400 advances to 901 declines. On the sectoral front, once again the banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Midcap and metal sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja Cement, ITC, Hero Motocorp, Sun Pharma and M&M were the top five Nifty gainers, while Hindalco, Sesa Goa, PNB, Coal India and Hind Unilever were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 278 crores and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 489 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 194 crores and net buyers in Index options to the tune of 1736 crores, while they were net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 20 and 53 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5925, with a hefty premium of 39 points to the spot along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.18, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX. On the Call Options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 & 5900 calls. On the Put options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5700 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates continued shorting in the Index futures and Call options, along with long positions on the Put options side.

On the technical side, once again Nifty has broken the major supports and the indicators on the daily and weekly charts indicate an extremely negative trend, which is likely to continue in the wake of adverse newsflow on the domestic front. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5930, 5974 on the upside and 5855, 5824 & 5780 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee hit a five week high on Friday, as the central bank’s measure to drain liquidity shore up the currency, but it gave up most gains as sustained dollar demand from oil importers to meet month end import requirements weighed. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.04, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.07, for the day.

On the international markets front, both the Asian and the European markets closed on a mixed note while the U.S. markets have closed on a positive note. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed down by 0.45 & 0.75% at 107.17 & 104.7 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future closed down by 2.44% at 3.56 $/MMBtu.

RECOVERY

The markets opened on a mildly positive note, under the shadow of the Banking  sector which was still reeling under the after effects of the RBI’s announcements, but still the markets continued to trade with a positive bias, for greater part of the trading session, but with less than a hour left for the end of the session, the market’s got the much needed fillip in the form of better than expected results from Axis bank and resulted in a sudden rally in Bank Nifty, which ultimately pulled up the entire market and both the benchmark indices closed at their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 65 & 180 points respectively. The market breadth also closed on a positive note with 701 advances to 578 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the FMCG, Energy and Midcap sectors. On the individual stocks front, ONGC, Reliance Infra, Asian Paint, Axis Bank & BHEL were the top five Nifty gainers, while M&M, HCL Tech, TCS,  Sesa Goa & Ultratech Cement were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 178 and 239 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and Options, to the tune of 30 and 465 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 324 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 91 crores. Nifty future settled at 6052, with 14 points premium to the spot along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.31, along with a decrease in the India VIX by 5.63%. On the Call options side, the 6200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 6000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 & 5900 puts, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5800 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates some fresh longs on the call options side along with liquidation of long positions in the Index futures, while there was some put writing on the higher side of the market.

On the technical side, after a brief lull, it seems that Nifty has resumed its upward journey once again, but any further move will be decided by the corporate results and the currency movement. Nifty is still trading above its major support levels on the weekly and daily charts and all the technical indicators indicate a further upmove. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 6068, 6086 on the upside and 5991, 5942 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee fell for a second session today, on dollar demand from companies and importers and is now close to losing all the gains it notched up since the Central bank’s measures to shore up the currency. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.67, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.71 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note and the U.S. markets are trading on a positive note amidst better than expected corporate earnings and jobless claims data. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up 0.06 & 1.57% up ,at 108.64 & 107.99 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up by 5.36% at 3.82 $/MMBtu, due to an unexpected fall in the weekly U.S. Natural Gas inventories.

CAUTION

The markets opened on a subdued note after the last week’s meteoric rise, and continued to trade with a negative bias, but as the session progressed the markets started recovering their losses and ultimately managed to cover all their losses till the end of the first half of the trading session and from that point onwards, the markets made a smart recovery and ultimately managed to close near their day’s high, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 22 & 76 points respectively. The market breadth also managed to close on a positive note, with 790 advances to 537 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking sector, while the rest of the sectors closed on a marginally positive note. On the individual stocks front, PNB, JP Associates, Cairn, Hindalco & Bank of Baroda were the top five Nifty gainers, while NTPC, Coal India, Infosys, Tata Steel & Tata Motors, were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 227 crores, while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 454 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 214 and 245 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock options to the tune of 237 crores and net sellers in Stock options the tune of mere 31 crores. Nifty future settled at 6033, with just 2 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Option side, PCR stood at 1.37, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.54%. On the Call options side, except the 6200 call there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6100 calls, while on the Put options side, the 6000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6100 puts, on the other hand the 5600 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates more short covering on the Call options side, along with Put writing at higher levels of the market.

On the technical side, Nifty continued with its uptrend on increasing volumes, mainly on the back of sustained buying by the DIIs and continued short covering in the Future’s market. As suggested yesterday, Nifty is trading above all its major support levels and the uptrend seems to be intact, but the sudden increase in the Bank rate by RBI to stem the currency volatility may spoil the mood and lead to a sell off tomorrow. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 6054, 6072 on the upside and 5994, 5958 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell today, as recent economic data worsened concerns about an economy reeling under a record current account deficit. The partially convertible finally closed at 59.89, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 60.03 for the day.

On the international markets front, Asian markets have closed on a mildly positive note, while the European markets have closed on a relatively stronger note and the U.S. markets are fluctuating between gains and losses as better than estimated manufacturing data and earnings, offset a disappointing retail sales report. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally up at 108.02 & 105.73 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 1.55% at 3.587 $/MMBtu.

OPTIMISM

The markets opened with a gap up, for the second consecutive day on the better than expected corporate results and accomodative stance taken by the federal reserve. The markets maintained their extremely positive momentum throughout the day, but with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session the markets made an almost vertical ascent and ultimately both the indices closed at their highest point of the week. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 74 & 282 points respectively. The market breadth was however negative with 596 advances to 710 declines. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest gainer of the day, followed by the Pharma, Energy and Banking sectors, while the FMCG sector was the biggest loser of the day. On the individual stocks front, Infosys, IDFC, LT, TCS & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty gainers, while Maruti, JP Associate, ONGC, Ultratech Cement & IndusInd Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 645 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 145 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 71 & 73 crores respectively and they were also net buyers in Stock futures and Options to the tune 543 & 227 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 6007, with 2 points discount to the spot along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.32, along with a marginal decrease in India VIX by 1.06%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5900 & 5500 calls, while the 6100 call added the maximum open interest. On the Put Options side, the 5900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000, 5700 & 5800 puts, while the 5400 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 put. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates massive short covering on the call options side, along with put writing at higher levels, due to the sudden surge in the markets.

On the technical side, Nifty is trading above all its major support levels on the daily and weekly charts, and Friday’s surge with increase in volumes, indicates that the positive momentum will continue for some more time on the back of positive news flow from the domestic as well as international markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 6035, 6061 on the upside and 5967, 5925 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rebounded in late trade on Friday, boosted by dollar selling by state run banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which helped the Rupee snap a nine week losing streak.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a muted note, while the U.S. markets have closed on a relatively positive note. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures  closed up by 1.0 & 0.99% at 108.81 & 105.95 $/bbl respectively and the Natural Gas future closed up by 0.86% at 3.64 $/MMBtu.

MISERABLE

The markets opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers and to add to the misery, the Rupee touched its lifetime low, creating a sense of extreme panic which ultimately led to distress selling. The markets continued to trade with extreme negative bias and ultimately ended on an extremely negative note. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 56 and 171 points respectively. The market breadth was also negative with 515 advances to 781 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the auto sector, while the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer of the day. On the individual stocks front, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, Reliance Infra, BHEL & Ambuja Cement were the top five Nifty gainers, while BPCL, JP Associate, ONGC, HDFC & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 204 & 59 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 446 and 865 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 299 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 122 crores. Nifty future settled at 5829, with 18 points premium to the spot along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.0, along with a marginal fall in India VIX by 0.94%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while the 6100 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 6000 & 5600 calls. On the Put options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5700 puts, while the 5800 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates liquidation of some long positions in the Index futures along with some with some option writing happening on the Call options side and long positions being added on the Put options side.

On the technical side, all is not lost as Nifty has closed above most of its critical support levels and the weekly charts, are still showing signs of support. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5848, 5864 on the upside and 5779, 5748 & 5716 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to a record low, while bond yields surged today exacerbating fears about the funding of current account deficit. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 60.61, while the near month USD-INR future settled at  60.67 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a extremely negative note, while on the other hand the European markets have closed on an extremely positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading in the green, giving the S&P 500 index its third straight day of gains as investors wait for the earnings season to kick off. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally down at 107.44 & 103.09 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up by 3.41% at 3.74 $/MMBtu.