CAUTION

The markets opened on a flat note, and continued to trade in the same range, till the start of second half of the trading session, from that point onwards the markets moved in a zig-zag way, briefly entering the positive and negative zones and ultimately both the indices, closed almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 7 and 23 points respectively. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 758 advances to 704 declines. On the sectoral front, except the FMCG sector, which was the biggest gainer for the day, there was hardly any activity in any sector and most of them closed marginally down or almost flat. On the individual stocks front, JP Associates, Tata Steel, ACC, ITC & Tata Power were among the few which managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of a whooping 1113 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 772 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any activity, with FIIs turning net buyers in the Index and Stock futures to the tune of mere 31 and 46 crores respectively. Nifty July future, closed at 5156 with just 7 points premium to the spot, along with a massive addition of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR increased to 1.33, along with a rise in the India VIX by 1.23%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 & 5400 calls. On the Put options side, the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4700 & 4800 puts. The activity in the F&O space is clearly reflective of the rollovers to the new series, but the point to be noted is that, cumulative open interest in the Put option side is greater than the call options side and the premium on the Nifty July future, has considerably reduced, since yesterday.

On the technical side, Nifty has closed above the 5100 mark for yet another session, but the FII sell figures in the cash market and literally no activity in the futures side is quite perplexing. It is quite clear that Nifty has not been able to break the upper limit of 5170, for close to three weeks and the only option left, seems to be a break on the downside. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5163, 5178 & 5197 on the upside, and 5099, 5084 & 5069 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee gained the most in two weeks after comments from the Prime Minister, regarding steps to be taken for the revival of the Indian economy. The rupee gained 0.6% and finally settled at 56.80, while the USD-INR future settled at 57.06 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian markets have closed on a firm note, while the European markets have ended on a negative note and the U.S. markets are trading with deep cuts on the back of mainly two factors (i) A report showed that lender JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s trading losses from credit derivatives may total as much as 9 billion dollars. (ii) The number of applications for unemployment benefits, hovered around the highest level of the year, showing little signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market.

On the energy futures side, both Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with deep cuts at 91.88 & 78.35 $/bbl respectively ,and the Natural gas future is also trading down by 4.13% at 2.68 $/MMBtu

ANXIOUS

The markets opened on a strongly positive, tracking their Asian peers and continued to trade in the same way till the start of the second half of the trading session, when the markets touched their intraday highs, but from this point onwards, the markets started loosing all their gains and touched their intraday low and with just one hour left to the end of the day's trading session, the markets recovered part of their gains and ultimately both the indices ended almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 21 and 61 points respectively. The market breadth was positive throughout the day and ended in the positive zone, with 810 advances to 629 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer followed by the IT, Banking and Metal sectors. On the individual stocks front, Sesa Goa, IDFC, Tata Steel, Tata Power & HCL Tech were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side there was hardly any activity, with the FIIs turning net buyers to the tune of mere 86 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 15 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs turned net buyers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 636 and 37 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5140, with just 2 points discount to the spot, along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR increased to 1.20, along with a marginal increase in India VIX by 0.69%. On the Call and Put Options side, the story was almost same, with 4600 to 5500 calls and puts shedding open interest, which is quite usual on the day before the expiry and the focus ultimately shifted to the next series, where the maximum open interest build up on the Call option side, is happening at the 5200 call, followed by the 5300 & 5100 calls, while on the Put options side , the 5000 put has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 4800 puts. The activity in the F&O space indicates suggests a lot of long positions are being rolled over, on the expectations of positive news flow from the domestic and international front.

On the technical side, Nifty closed above the 5100 level, once gain with slight increase in volumes, but still it is stuck in the congestion zone, around 5150. Nifty has been trading sideways for the third week in a row, and a breakout must happen, in order to come out of  this indecision period, and much of it will depend on the news flow the macro as well as the micro level. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5158, 5176 & 5189 on the upside and 5112 & 5096 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee continued its downward journey and closed at 57.15 for the day, while the USD-INR future closed at 57.20 for the day. 

On the International market front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note, and the U.S. markets are also trading on a firm note on the back of better than estimated data on housing and durable goods orders. 

On the energy futures front, both the Brent and the WTI crude futures are trading on a strongly positive note at 93.62 & 80.42 $/bbl, after the data showed fall in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories and the Natural gas future is also trading up by 1.69% at 2.85 $/MMBtu.

DILEMMA

As expected the markets opened on a flat note, tracking its Asian peers, and continued to trade range-bound till the start of the second half of the trading session and with the just 45 minutes left for the end of the day's session, the markets briefly touched their intraday low, but smartly recovered to close near the day's high and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 6 and 24 points respectively. The market breadth was negative with 698 advances to 746 declines. On the sectoral front, the Pharma sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking and Midcap sectors, on the other hand the FMCG sector was the biggest looser of the day. On the individual stocks front, GAIL, Grasim, Tata Power, Power Grid and Siemens were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side, strangely the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a mere 13 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of a massive 355 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures worth, a whooping 800 crores and sold Stock futures worth 162 crores. Nifty future closed at 5126, with 5 points premium to the spot, along with massive loss in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR fell to 0.98, along with a fall in the India VIX by 6.21%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 4900 calls on the other hand the 5200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 call. On the Put option side, the 5100 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 4800 puts, while the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4700 put. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates rollover of positions to the next series, along with call and put writing in the out of money call and put options, just before the expiry. So far the rollover of positions is quite good and the Nifty July series is opening with considerable open interest and 21 points premium to the spot. On the currency front, the Rupee touched the intraday low of 57.20, but finally closed at 57.01, for the day, while the USD-INR future closed almost flat at 57.03 for the day.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to close above the 5100 level, but with decreasing volumes. Since Nifty has been stuck in this range for more than two weeks and it is trading on falling volumes, indicates, that a intermediate top formation might have taken place and market participants will be taking their profits off the table very soon. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5138, 5155 & 5178 on the upside and 5097, 5093 & 5061 on the downside.

On the international market front, the Asian and the European markets have closed almost flat, while the U.S.markets are trading in the positive zone, even after after the data showed fall in the consumer confidence and manufacturing activity. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude future is trading up by 1.12% at 92.03 $/bbl while the WTI crude future is trading down by 0.39% at 78.85 $/bbl and the Natural gas future is trading up by 1.70% at 2.78 $/MMBtu.

CLIFFHANGER

The markets opened on a very positive note, on the back of expectations of of some big ticket announcements, from the Finance minister as well as the RBI, and touched their intraday highs within the first two and half hours of the trading session. The markets continued to trade in the same range till the second half of the trading session, and with just one hour left for the end of the trading session, the big announcement came and it turned out to be a non event, to which the markets reacted aptly and pared all the gains to close near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 31 and 90 points respectively.The market breadth, deteriorated considerably but finally managed to close marginally positive with 775 advances to 693 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest looser, followed by the IT and the Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, Cairn, GAIL & Reliance Industries were among the few stocks, which managed to buck the trend. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 153 and 26 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers both in Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 72 and 267 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5109, with six points discount to the spot, along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side, the PCR fell to 1.07, along with a jump in the India VIX by 4.81%. On the Call options side, the 5200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 & 5300 call, on the other hand the 5000 call, lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 5400 calls. On the Put options side, the 4900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 & 5000 puts, while the 5200 put was the only exception, which added the maximum open interest. The activity in the F&O space, indicates fresh short buildup on the futures side, accompanied by call writing at higher levels which clearly reflects the extreme pessimism in the market.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to hold on to the 5100 level for the fifth consecutive session on falling volumes. Nifty managed to come very close to the overhead resistance of 5199, but could not overcome it and fell from those levels and finally found its intraday support around the 5106 level. Since  there was no positive breakout today, the market participants will be keenly watching the critical levels, in the next few sessions, to take any directional calls. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5177, 5225 on the upside and 5070, 5057 and 5006 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee appreciated considerably after the RBI's announcement, and rose to a intraday high of 56.37, but finally ended 57.01, and the USD-INR future closed at 57.06 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading with deep losses on concern's that the European summit will fail to tame the region's debt crisis. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with marginal losses at 90.86 & 79.18 $/bbl, while the Natural gas future is trading up 2.36% at 2.73 $/MMBtu

INDECISIVE

The markets opened with a gap down , tracking its Asian peers and continued to trade in the same range and touched their intraday lows, at the end of the first half of the trading session, strangely from this point onwards the markets made a smart recovery and recovered most of their losses and ultimately both the indices almost closed flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 19 and 60 points respectively. The market breadth also recovered considerably, but ultimately closed in the negative with 681 advances to 778 declines. On the sectoral front, the Metals sector was the biggest looser, followed by the FMCG, while the rest of the sectors closed almost flat or slightly in the negative zone. On the individual stocks front, ONGC, Kotak Bank, Bank of Baroda, Cipla & Maruti were among the few, which managed to buck the trend. On the institutional side the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 174 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of a mere 1.27 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs brought Index futures worth 150 crores  and sold Stock futures worth 343 crores. Nifty future closed at 5151, with 5 points premium, to the spot, along with a considerable, loss of open interest. On the Option side, the PCR marginally fell to 1.18, along with a rise in the India VIX by 3.21%. On the call options side, the 5200 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 4900 calls. On the Put options side, the 4900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 & 5100 puts. The activity in the F&O space indicates slight liquidation of longs, as well as put writing at the lower levels also, on the back of expectation of positive news flow from the government, which may lead to a smart pullback.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to close, above the 5100 mark on healthy volumes, and most of the technical indicators are also supporting the markets, but the point to be noted is that Nifty has been stuck in the 100 points range of 5070 - 5170 for the last 11 trading sessions. A breakout is about to happen, but which way, will be largely dependent on the news flow and the futures expiry, that lies ahead. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5176, 5199 & 5238 on the upside and 5106, 5068 & 5053 on the downside. On the currency front the once again the rupee touched its lifetime low, and the USD-INR future finally closed at 57.29 for the week.

On the international market front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a negative note, while the U.S.markets managed to close on a very firm note. On the energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude futures closed up by close to 2% , at 90.98 & 79.76 $/bbl , and the Natural Gas futures also closed up by 1.67%, at 2.62 $/MMBtu for the week.

TREND CHANGE ???

The markets opened on a very weak note and continued to trade in the same range, till the second half of the trading session, but with just one and half hour left for the end of the trading session, the news of JP Morgan upgrading Indian equities from "overweight" to "neutral" on a number of factors including historic valuations, expectations for monetary stimulus, lower oil prices and a weak rupee, lent a helping hand, and the markets made a almost vertical rise from these levels and ultimately both the Indices closed at the highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 44 and 136 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely positive with 935 advances to 512 declines. On the sectoral front the, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the FMCG, Midcap and Infrastructure sectors. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, Rel Infra, DLF, Bhel & PNB were the star performers of the day. On the institutional side, surprisingly the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 257 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of a mere 69 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures worth 122 crores and sold Stock futures worth a mere 96 crores. Nifty future closed at 5174, with just 9 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side the PCR fell to 1.18, along with a fall in the India VIX by 5.18%. On the Call options side, the 5100 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 and 4900 calls, on the other hand the 5200 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 call. On the Put options side, the 5200 put option added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 put, while the 4800 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4600 & 4700 puts. The activity in the F&O space, indicates fresh longs on the futures side along with massive put writing at higher levels, but the FII sell figures in the spot market, indicates that the entire focus will be shifting to the futures side.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to conquer the psychological 5150 mark, on huge volumes and most importantly, it is trading above all its short term exponential moving averages, which adds credence to the fact that this up-move might be sustained for some more time, if there is no major negative news-flow from the domestic and international markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty,will be 5192, 5219 & 5249 on the upside and 5115, 5095 & 5066 on the downside.

On the currency front, the Rupee fell to a record against the dollar as the Euro and the other  risk assets were hit by disappointment, about the size of bond purchases announced by the Federal reserve and by weak global economic data.The rupee fell at one point to a record low of 56.55 to the dollar, surpassing its previous 56.52 low.However, the local currency recovered losses on the back of rallying domestic equities to settle at 56.30/31 versus its 56.15/16 close on Wednesday, while the USD-INR future closed at 56.43 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed almost flat,and the European markets have closed in the red after weak factory data from China and a contraction in the euro zone's private sector contributed to the falls. The U.S. markets are trading deep in the red,after a gauge of Philadelphia-area manufacturing unexpectedly fell, while housing and jobless claims reports also disappointed. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading down by 3.5% at 89.70 & 78.67 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading  up, by close to 2%, at 2.56 $/MMBtu, on the back of unexpected fall in U.S. natural gas inventories.

LACKLUSTRE

The markets opened on a affirmative note and continued to trade like this throughout the trading session, except at the start of the second half of the trading session, when the markets lost all their gains and briefly entered the negative zone, but from that point onwards the markets almost made a V shaped recovery and touched their intraday high, but again, within the last half an hour, the markets lost almost all their gains, and ultimately both the indices ended in the positive after recovering part of their losses.To sum it up the entire trading session was a roller-coaster ride. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 17 & 37 points respectively. The market breadth remained positive till the end of the session, with 915 advances to 538 declines. On the sectoral front, the Midcap sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Pharma and the Energy sectors. On the individual stocks front, ACC, Sterlite, HCL Tech, Tata Motors & Jindal Steel were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side, there was hardly any activity with the  FIIs and DIIs turning net buyers to the tune of merely 120 & 44 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the scenario was almost same, where FIIs brought Index futures worth 186 crores and sold Stock futures worth 8 crores. Nifty future closed at 5122, with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side the PCR increased to 1.25, along with a slight fall in the India VIX by 1.57%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 call, on the other hand the 5000 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 4900 & 4800 calls. On the Put options side, the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 & 5200 puts, while the 4700 put lost the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates addition of fresh longs in the futures and options front, in anticipation of positive news flow from the international markets. 

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to close above the 5100 mark, with increase in volume, which augurs well for the markets in the short term. On the candlestick charts, Nifty was in a indecision period today, which was validated by the relatively low participation from the institutional side. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5154, 5163 & 5174 on the upside and 5094, 5062 & 5039 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee depreciated considerably and the USD- INR future closed at 56.21 for the day. 

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note, but the U.S. markets are trading in the red, on the back of investors weighing the European discussions to fight the debt crisis and the impact of Federal Reserve's  extension of the "Operation Twist" till year end. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading deep in the red, at 93.09 & 81.94 $/bbl respectively, after the unexpected rise in the U.S. crude oil inventories.Meanwhile the Natural gas future is  trading almost flat at 2.54 $/MMBtu.

FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS.

The markets opened on a shaky note, and touched their intraday lows within the first hour of the trading session, but recovered their losses within the next one hour, and traded on a strong note for the rest of the session with occasional swings between the positive and negative territories, but ultimately both the indices closed at their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 40 and 154 points respectively for the day. The market breadth, surprisingly turned, marginally negative by the end of the session with 709 advances to 733 declines. On the sectoral front, FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, Pharma and Banking sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja cement, Gail, Siemens, Reliance Industries and ITC were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side, surprisingly both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 93 and 279 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives front, the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 254 and 11 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5111, with just 7 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate fall in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR marginally fell to 1.12, along with a fall in the India VIX by 5.18%. On the Call options side, the 5000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 4800 calls, on the other hand the 5300 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5100 & 5200 calls. On the Put options side, the 5100 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 4900 & 5000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates profit booking on the futures side, along with call writing at higher levels. This indicates that every rise is being used as an opportunity to short the market, which is validated by the buy and sell figures on the institutional side.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above yet another important level of 5100, but on the other hand  failed to conquer yesterday's high of 5190. On a short term basis, Nifty must close above the 5059 level, to sustain the uptrend. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5129, 5154 & 5166 on the upside and 5063, 5026 & 4995 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee closed almost flat and the USD-INR future closed at 56.05 for the day.

On the international markets front, with a exception of the Asian markets, which have closed in the red, the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note on the expectations of Greek voters being rewarded for supporting the pro- euro parties, with European creditors set to ease bailout terms on the debt swamped country. The U.S. markets are also trading on a very firm note on the back of speculation, that signs of slowing growth amid European debt turmoil, might force the Fed to announce new steps to boost the economy. On the energy futures front , the Brent crude future is trading marginally higher at 96.36 $/bbl, and the WTI crude future is trading up by 1.11% at 84.53 $/bbl, while the Natural gas future is trading down by 3.76% at 2.53 $/MMBtu.

PERPLEXING

The markets opened with a strong gap up, on the back of positive international news flow and expectation of  favorable news from the RBI, and continued to trade in the same range for the next two hours, till the quarterly monetary policy review was announced, which came as a shocker for the overjoyed market and took the wind out of the markets sail. The markets vertically nosedived from this level and could not recover till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 75 and 244 points respectively for the day. The market breadth turned extremely negative till the end of the session with 420 advances to 1052 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest looser, followed by the FMCG, Midcap and energy sectors. On the individual stocks front, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto & Cairn somehow managed to buck the trend. On the institutional side, surprisingly the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 412 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of merely 63 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures,worth 189 crores and sold Stock futures worth 360 crores. Nifty future closed at 5059, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR marginally increased to 1.13, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 11.51%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5000 & 5200 calls, on the other hand the 4900 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5400 call. On the Put options side, the 4600 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 & 5200 puts, on the other hand the 4700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 put. The entire activity in the F&O space suggests, build up of fresh shorts in the index futures, along with massive call writing at higher levels, but the FII buy figures in the cash market is quite confusing and leads us to believe that some value buying might be emerging in the markets, after the sudden fall, and at the same time the participants are hedging their portfolios by taking the reverse position in the futures market.

On the technical side, Nifty somehow managed to cling to the level of 5050 and managed to close above the psychological mark. On the candlestick charts, the "evening star" formation on Thursday, along with the "engulfing bear" formation today, once again confirms the bearish reversal. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5092 & 5126 on the upside, and 5027, 4980 & 4920 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee depreciated considerably and the USD-INR future closed at 56.01 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian markets have closed on a firm note, while the European markets have closed on a mixed note, and the U.S. markets are trading almost on a flat note. On the energy futures side, the Brent and the WTI crude futures are also trading deep in the red at 96.05 and 83.68 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading up by 5.5% at 2.60 $/MMBtu.

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED.

The markets opened on a strong note, and gained strength, with every passing hour of the trading session and touched their intraday highs, with just one hour left for the end of the trading session and ultimately closed near the highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 84 and 272 points respectively. The market breadth was positive throughout the day with 823 advances to 611 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer followed by the FMCG, Auto and the IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Grasim, Tata Motors, Ambuja Cement, Rel Infra, ACC & PNB were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 339 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 121 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures worth 197 crores and sold Stock futures worth 193 crores. Nifty future closed at 5148, with 9 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR marginally fell to 1.01, along with a slight fall in the India VIX by 0.66%. On the Call options side, the 5100 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 call, on the other hand the 5500 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 4900 calls. On the Put options side, the 4600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the  5100, 5000 & 4800 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates fresh longs in the index futures along with liquidation of shorts on the options side, manly on the expectations of a favorable outcome of the Greece elections and affirmative action by the RBI on Monday.

On the technical side, surprisingly Nifty conquered the 5100 level and managed to close comfortably above it , with huge volumes. Its clearly visible that the smart pullback has happened on the speculation of positive news flow, while fundamentally nothing has changed on the ground, within a single day. Well as we say, flow with the tide, there is no point fighting with the logic when the emotional aspect of the markets overpowers the logical side. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5167, 5195 and 5216 on the upside and 5094, 5057 & 5025 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee, the rupee appreciated considerably and the USD-INR future closed at 55.60 for the week.

On the international markets side, the Asian and the European markets closed on a strongly positive note, and even the U.S. markets managed to close on a firm note, even as economic data disappointed mainly on three fronts (i) Unexpected fall in industrial production in May, for the second time in three months. (ii) Decline in consumer confidence, to the lowest level in June, this year. (iii) Manufacturing in New York expanded in June, at the slowest pace in the last seven months. Once again its is clear that the U.S. markets, also rallied amid speculation that global central banks will take steps to boost economies as investors await Greek elections this weekend.

Even on the commodities side, all the major commodities including Crude, bullion and industrial metals managed to close on a strongly positive note in anticipation of good news flow.

CAUTION

The markets opened on a negative note and continued to trade in the same range for the next two hours of the trading session, except for 20 minutes, when the markets, briefly entered the positive territory, before starting their one way downward journey and finally touching their intraday lows at the fag end of the trading session. The Nifty and the Sensex, closed down by 67 and 203 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative, with 429 advances to 1029 declines. On the sectoral front, Banking sector was the biggest looser followed by the Midcap and Auto sectors, on the other hand the IT sector was the only gainer for the day. On the individual stock front, Infosys, ACC & Cipla, somehow managed to buck the trend. On the Institutional side, FIIs were net buyers, to the tune of 106 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 283 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 92 and 245 crores respectively.Nifty future closed at 5054, with just 1 point discount to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side PCR marginally increased to 1.13, along with a jump in the India VIX by 5.54%. On the Call option side, the 5100 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5300 calls, on the other hand the 5000 call lost the maximum open interest. On the Put option side, 5100 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 and 5200 puts, on the other hand the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 put. The activity in the F&O space, clearly indicates, fresh shorts building up in the system.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above the crucial mark of 5050, once again, but it remains doubtful, how long it will be able to hold on to this level. On the candlestick charts, an evening star formation has taken place, along with confirmation from the other technical indicators, on the daily charts. This is a confirmed bearish reversal pattern. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5114 & 5155 on the upside and 5017, 5006 and 4990 on the downside. On the currency front, the rupee depreciated once again and the USD-INR future closed at 55.83 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian and the European markets have closed either flat or in the red, but the U.S.markets are trading on a firm note on the back of inflation and jobless data, fueling speculation that the Federal reserve will act to spur growth. On the energy futures front both Brent and WTI crude futures are trading on a firm note at 96.78 & 83.42 $/bbl. 

TREND CHANGE ???

The markets opened on a negative note on the expectation of lower than expected IIP numbers, and continued to trade in the the same zone for the first two hours of the trading session, but soon after the IIP numbers were declared, the government and the RBI sprung into action, by assuring that some concrete steps will be taken in the days to come. This assured the participants and the markets reacted favourably from this point onwards and closed near the highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 62 and 195 points respectively for the day. The market breadth also improved considerably and closed marginally positive with 772 advances to 672 declines. On the sectoral front, Banking sector was the biggest gainer followed by the FMCG, Auto & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja Cement, PNB, ACC, TATA MOTORS & DLF were the star performers of the day. On the institutional side, there was hardly any activity, with both the FIIs and DIIs turning net sellers to the tune of a mere 57 and 54 crores, respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the scenario was same, with FIIs turning net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of mere 4 & 250 crores respectively.  Nifty future closed at 5126, with 10 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest, On the Options side the PCR, marginally fell to 1.17, along with a moderate fall in the India VIX by 3.28%. On the Call option side, the 5000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 and 4900 calls, on the other hand the 5200 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5500 and 5400 calls. On the put option side, there was considerable addition of open interest from the 4500 to 5500 puts, but the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100,5200 & 4900 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates some moderation in the selling pressure, along with liquidation of shorts and put writing at higher levels.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to conquer, yet another milestone, with relative ease and as suggested yesterday, managed to close above the crucial mark of 5068. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5147, 5177 & 5230 on the upside and 5074, 5050 & 5008 on the downside. On the currency front , the Rupee closed almost flat, and the USD-INR  future, finally closed at 55.93 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed deep in the red, while the European markets have managed to close on a firm note and the U.S. markets  are also trading in the green on the back of speculation that policy makers will stimulate the economy, overshadowed by Europe's debt crisis after Fitch ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude is trading down by close to a percent at 97.07 $/bbl, while the WTI crude is trading up by 0.69% at 83,27 $/bbl, but Natural Gas is trading up by 1.58% at 2.25 $/MMbtu.

EDGY

The markets opened on a positive note, and touched their intraday high, within the first half an hour of the trade. The markets continued, to trade strongly till the first hour of the second half of the trading session, but the news of the possible downgrade by S&P spooked the markets, and the markets gave away all their gains, till the end of the session and finally closed in the negative zone. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 14 and 51 points respectively, for the day. The market breadth stayed marginally positive till the end of the session, with 769 advances to 693 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the only sector which closed in the green, while all the other sectors, almost closed almost flat or ended in the negative zone. On the individual stocks front, Tata Power, Bajaj Auto & Grasim, were the few stocks which managed to buck the trend. On the institutional side, surprisingly the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 130 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 215 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures, worth 527 crores, and sold Stock futures worth a mere 42 crores. Nifty future closed at 5052, with just 2 points discount to the spot, along with a considerable fall in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR increased to 1.19, along with a big jump in the volatility index by 6.60%. On the Call options side, the 4800 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 and 4700 calls, on the other hand, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 & 5400 calls. On the Put options side, the 5100 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4600 & 4800 puts.The entire activity in the F&O space indicates liquidation of shorts in the futures, with corresponding call writing at higher levels, which once again indicates the panic among the participants, waiting to sell at the slightest signs of nervousness.So clearly the market participants are using every opportunity to build shorts in the system.

On the technical side, once again the Nifty managed to close above the 5050 level, but it remains to be seen, whether this level can be protected for the next few sessions. Nifty has to maintain the level of 5068, on a closing basis, in order to make a meaningful upmove, otherwise the short upmove will  fizzle out the same way, it has formed in  the last few sessions. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5098, 5151 & 5189 on the upside and 5000, 4975 & 4957 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee depreciated once again and finally the USD-INR future closed at 55.92 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian markets have closed on a strongly positive note, while the European markets pared all their gains and finally closed in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading in the red, after optimism over Spain's bailout plan, gave way to skepticism, whether it will succeed in halting the debt crisis.On the energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude futures are trading down at 98.72 & 83.43 $/bbl respectively.

CAUTION

The markets opened on a negative note, after two consecutive days of back to back rallies, and were clearly in a profit booking mode, ahead of the weekend and continued to trade with a negative bias throughout the trading session, but touched their intraday lows in the second half of the trading session, before making a almost V shaped recovery from this point onwards, to finally close in the positive zone. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 19 and 70 points respectively. The market breadth also improved considerably by the end of the session, but finally closed on a negative note, with 690 advances to 750 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the banking sector, on the other hand the IT sector was the biggest looser for the day. On the individual stock front, Rel Infra, Sterlite, Gail, LT and IDFC were the stocks which managed to buck the trend. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 202 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers, to the tune of a mere 81 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs sold Index futures worth 163 crores, and brought stock futures worth 275 crores. Nifty future closed at 5059, with the discount narrowing down to, just 9 points to the spot, along with a moderate fall in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR fell to 1.10, along with a slight fall in the India VIX by 0.72%. On the Call options side, the 4900 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 4800 calls, on the other hand the 5200 call added the maximum open interest. On the Put options side, the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed  by the 5100, 4500 & 4700 puts. The activity in the F&O space, indicate that the  recovery at the end was mainly due to short covering in the Index as well as the stock futures, but the better part was that, the FIIs were net buyers in the Index and stock futures. In the medium  term, the open interest position shows, Nifty will face considerable resistance in the 5100 - 5200 range.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above, yet another psychological mark of 5050 and at the same time it has managed to close above most of its short term moving averages on a daily basis ,but very shortly the markets are about to enter the overbrought zone. On the weekly charts, a lot needs to be done , before this up-move really becomes a trend. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5103, 5138 & 5150 on the upside, and 5000, 4967 & 4946 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee depreciated once again and the USD-INR future closed at 55.66 for the week.

On the international market front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a negative note, while the U.S.markets closed on a firm note for the week, but the real problem that has cropped up is Spain, which has become the biggest euro economy, so far to seek international aid of 125 billion USD , to rescue its banking system and the markets will react favourably tomorrow if suitable policy action is taken. On the energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude futures have closed at 99.47 & 84.10 $/bbl for the week, while Natural gas futures managed to recover some of their losses and closed at 2.29 $/Mmbtu. On the precious metal front, Gold managed to close almost flat at 1591.40 $/t.oz, while Silver closed marginally down at 28.47 $/t.oz for the week.

EXUBERANCE

The markets opened on a strongly positive note, buoyed by the positive vibes from the government on the policy front. The markets gained momentum with the progressing session, but just like yesterday, the markets rose at a franctic pace, at the start of the second half of the trading session and ultimately closed at the highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 53 and 195 points respectively for the day. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 848 advances to 589 declines. On the sectoral front, once gain Banking sector was biggest gainer, followed closely by the FMCG, Energy and Midcap sectors.  On the individual stocks front there were quite a few star performers for the day, led by JP Associates and followed by Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Sterlite Industries & Sesa Goa. On the institutional side, surprisingly FIIs turned net buyers, to the tune of a massive 675 crores for the second consecutive session, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of a mere 34 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in the Index and Stock futures, to the tune of a whooping, 1132 and 641 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5029, with the discount, once again increasing to, 21 points to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side, the PCR increased to 1.12, along with a sizeable fall in the India VIX by 5.06%. On the Call options front, the 5000 call, lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 & 4900 calls, on the other hand the 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 & 5500 calls. On the Put options side, the 4900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 & 4700 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, short covering along with creation of fresh longs, which is validated by the FII data from the cash and futures market.

On the technical side, Nifty conquered, yet another level of 5050 and managed to close above the psychological mark of 5000. In order to validate the upmove, Nifty has to close above the 5000 mark. for a few more sessions and the technical indicators, indicate there is still some more steam left, before the markets become overbrought. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5069, 5094 & 5121 on the upside and 5017, 4986 & 4965 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee appreciated considerably and the USD-INR future closed at 55.07 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian and European markets have closed on a  strongly positive note, while the U.S. markets opened on a firm note, after China cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, to bolster growth in the world's second largest economy, but the equities pared gains after the Fed chairman, said the central bank will assess the economy, before deciding if more stimulus is needed. On the commodities front, both Gold and Silver are trading deep in the red, after a few sessions of smart gains, while both Brent and WTI crude are trading almost flat at 100.70 and 85.30 $/bbl respectively, and Natural gas is trading deep in the red, after a unexpected rise in the Natural gas inventories.

ECSTATIC

What a day ? its was. Just opposite to everybody's expectations, the markets shot over the roof, bringing some relief to the battered investor's, just like the monsoon's are about to bring to the, whole of India, from the scorching heat. The markets opened on a positive note and gradually gained momentum, as the session progressed, but the momentum gathered more pace at the start of the second half of the trading session and the markets touched their intraday high in the last half an hour of the trading session, before cooling off a bit to close near the day's high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 134 and 434 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely positive, with 1168 advances to 319 declines. On the sectoral front, it was the day of the interest rate sensitives, with the Banking sector leading the way, followed by the Auto, Energy and the Midcap sector. On the individual stock front, there were a string of star performers for the day, with Tata Motors leading the way, followed by HeroMotocorp, Jindal Steel, Rel Infra and Ambuja Cement. On the institutional side, surprisingly both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 269 and 489 crores respectively, in the cash market.

On the derivatives side FIIs sold Index futures, worth a mere 40 crores and brought Stock futures, worth a massive 578 crores. Nifty future closed at 4978, with the discount increasing to 19 points, to the spot, along with a moderate loss of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR increased to 1.03, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.36%. On the Call options side, the 4900 call, lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800, 4700 & 5000 calls, on the other hand the 5200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5100 calls. On the Put Option side, the 4800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 5000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates there was massive short covering, which led to today's rally. However the silver lining amidst the clouds, was that the FIIs were net buyers in the spot as well as stock futures. 

On the technical side, Nifty has managed to conquer the crucial levels of 4888 and 4950, for the day, on the back of a purely technical pullback, from the oversold levels. The strong pullback in the last three session, including today's pullback, has led to reversal signs in the indicators, both on the daily and the weekly charts, suggesting the momentum might continue for some more time. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5027, 5047 & 5088 on the upside, and 4948,4912 & 4840 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee appreciated once again and the USD-INR future closed 55.56 for the day.

On the international markets front the Asian and the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note after the ECB president Mario Draghi said " officials stand ready to act as the Euro regions growth outlook worsens". The U.S. markets are also trading on a firm note, before the Fed publishes its "Beige book survey of business conditions in 12 national districts today". On the energy futures front, both the Brent and the WTI crude futures are trading strongly in the green at 100.67 & 85.27 $/bbl respectively.

SURPRISE

Unexpectedly the markets opened on a mildly positive note, tracking their Asian peers and gained strength as the session progressed. The markets touched their intraday highs within the first half of the trading session, but slowly started loosing their momentum and subsequently touched their intraday low, in the second half of the trading session, but eventually recovered some of their losses at the fag end of the trading session, to close almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 15 and 32 points respectively. The market breadth stayed marginally positive, till the end of the session with 784 advances to 657 declines.On the sectoral front, the Banking sector turned out to be the biggest gainer, while the FMCG sector was the biggest looser. On the individual stock front, LT, Grasim, RelInfra, IDFC & Cairn were the star performers of the day. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 680 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 795 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, surprisingly the FIIs turned net buyers in both the Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 286 and 279 crores respectively.Nifty future closed at 4846, with the discount once again widening to 17 points to the spot, along with a slight fall in open interest. On the options side the PCR fell to 0.94, along with a rise in the India VIX by 2.58%. On the Call option side, the 5000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 5100 calls, while on the Put option side, the 4800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 and the 4700 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates, some amount of short covering on the futures side, along with massive call writing at higher levels. The FIIs are constantly reducing their positions in the cash markets along with a corresponding build up in the future positions, which once again validates the fact, that every rise is used as a opportunity to exit the market.

On the technical side, Nifty breached the intraday resistance of 4880, and made a high of 4898, but could not close above the crucial mark of 4888. The technical indicators on the daily as well as the weekly charts , do not show any signs of  reversal, which is validated by the data from the F&O space. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 4891, 4903 & 4942 on the upside and 4840, 4818 & 4799 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee depreciated marginally and the USD-INR future closed at 55.89 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a strongly positive note, while the European markets have closed in the red, but the U.S. markets are trading in the green as equities reversed early losses today as the Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, rose to 53.7 last month from April’s 53.5. On the energy futures front, the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading almost flat with a negative bias at 98.74 & 83.94 $/bbl respectively.

DECEPTIVE

Once again the markets opened with a gap down, and touched their intraday low within the first half an hour of the trading session. The markets continued to trade in the same range, till the end of the first half of the trading session, but suddenly started recovering, after a statement from the deputy governor of RBI, indicated that, falling oil prices as well as declining core inflation and growth in India, will give the Reserve Bank of India room to adjust interest rates. The markets recovered very sharply and ultimately entered the positive zone and closed at the highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex made a intraday recovery of 80 and 257 points respectively from the day's low and closed up by 6 and 23 points respectively. The market breadth also improved considerably, but still ended on a negative note, with 621 advances to 842 declines. On the sectoral front , the recovery was mainly led by the Banking sector, and almost all the sectors recovered from their day's low and closed in the positive zone, with a exception of the FMCG sector, which was the biggest looser of the day. On the individual stocks front, JP Associates, Siemens, Bank Of Baroda, LT & BPCL were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side, the picture was quite different, where FIIs turned net sellers to the tune of a massive 637 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 446 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs sold Index futures worth 348 crores and brought Stock futures worth 106 crores. Nifty future closed at 4840, with the discount narrowing down to just 8 points, along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side, the PCR increased to 1.08, along with a fall in the India VIX by 4.37%. On the Call options side, the 5200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 & 4700 calls. On the Put options side, the 4900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 put, on the other hand the 4700 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 4800 put. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates, some level of short covering owing to the sharp pullback, but not much has changed as it is evident from the FII sell figures, which indicate, every rise is used as a selling opportunity. On the currency front, the Rupee appreciated considerably and the USD-INR future closed at 55.73 for the day.

On the technical side, not much is to be read into today's up-move, and the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 4880, 4906 & 4968 on the upside and 4792, 4737 & 4704 on the downside.

On the international market front, the Asian and European markets have ended deep in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading in the negative zone, after data showed that factory orders dropped 0.6 percent in April, pointing to a deceleration in manufacturing and China’s non-manufacturing industries expanded at the slowest pace in more than a year.

On the energy futures front, the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading almost flat at 97.96 & 83.26 $/bbl respectively.

CARNAGE

As expected, the markets opened on a negative note in the aftermath of worst than expected domestic GDP figures, due to policy paralysis on the part of the government. After the initial two hours of the trading session, the situation turned worse, and the markets headed straight for a downward journey, and could not recover any of the losses, and both the indices closed at their lowest level, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 83 and 253 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 376 advances to 1092 declines. There was across the sector selling, but the biggest looser was the Banking sector, followed by the Energy, Midcap and IT sectors, on the other hand, FMCG was the only sector, which survived the onslaught. On the individual stocks front, only ITC & GAIL, managed to buck the trend. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 220 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 205 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures, to the tune of 496 crores and net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 123 crores. Nifty future closed at 4825, with 16 points discount to the spot, along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the options side PCR, marginally fell to 1.05, along with a rise in the India VIX by 1.52%. On the Call option side, the 5000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100, 4900 & 4800 calls. On the Put option side, the 5000 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 5100 puts, on the other hand the 4700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 put. The entire activity in the F&O space,  indicates shorting of Index futures as well as massive call writing at higher levels, which will act as major resistance levels, in case of a pullback.

On the technical side, Nifty has once again breached the crucial level of 4888, and somehow managed to close near the intraday support of 4852, but all the indicators on the daily and weekly charts are strongly in sell mode. Going forward, as suggested last month, the possibility of the markets testing the Dec. 2011 lows, seems to be a reality now. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 4910 & 4960 on the upside and 4810, 4771 & 4712 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee  appreciated slightly and the USD-INR future closed at 56.10, for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian, European and the U.S. markets have also ended, deep in the red, namely due to the following factors, (i) Decline in the monthly employment figures and data showing the U.S. economy grew more slowly in the first quarter than previously estimated. (ii) A gauge of manufacturing in the euro zone dropped to a three-year low. (iii) China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index showed the weakest production growth since December. 

(iv) Europe’s debt crisis intensified as investors focused on Spain’s finances and Greece’s ability to remain in the euro region.

On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures closed with a massive fall of 3.38 & 3.81 % at 98.43 and 83.23 $/bbl respectively for the week.