UPSWING

The new F&O series began with a bang as the markets opened with a gap up, and touched their intraday highs within the first one and a half hours of the trading session and maintained the positive momentum till the end of the session. The market breadth was also extremely positive with 925 advances to 595 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, Pharma, Auto and Media sectors. On the individual stocks front, Hindalco, Power Grid, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma & Bank of Baroda were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while RelInfra, DLF, IDFC, HCL Tech & Infosys were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers, to the tune of 1230 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 679 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures, to the tune of 999 crores, and net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 579 crores. Nifty future settled at 5729, with 26 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.03, along with a fall in the India VIX by 4.44%. On the Call Options side, except the 5900 call, which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4900 to 5800 calls, while on the Put Options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700, 5600, 5500 & 5800 puts. The entire activity in the cash and F&O markets indicates addition of fresh longs on the Index futures side, along with profit booking on the call options side, and Put writing at lower levels, which indicates the overall bullish sentiment of the market.

On the technical side, as expected, after consolidating before the expiry, Nifty finally settled at 5703, its 16 month high, with increasing volumes, coupled with strong FII inflows and positive data from the F&O side, there seems to be a real possibility of Nifty making new highs in the coming week, if the international market news remains supportive. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5731, 5759 & 5781 on the upside and 5679, 5655 & 5627 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee rose to its five-month high as global risk sentiment improved and the government stuck to its original borrowing plan, showing further signs of fiscal discipline. The Rupee finally settled at 52.85 for the week, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.07 for the week.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets settled in the red, for the week, and the U.S. markets also settled with losses, after data showed the U.S. business activity unexpectedly contracted in September. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent  & WTI crude oil futures closed marginally positive at 112.39 & 92.19 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future closed up by 0.70% at 3.32 $/MMBtu.

MUTED

The markets opened on a very weak note, tracking their Asian peers, and traded range-bound for the entire session and ultimately both the benchmark indices closed down with minor losses. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 10 & 62 points respectively. The market breadth was negative throughout the day, but managed to close evenly balanced with 732 advances to 751 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer for the day, while the rest of the sectors closed marginally in the positive or with minor losses. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja Cement, ACC, Cipla, Axis Bank and HeromotoCorp were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while Bharti Airtel, Coal India, IDFC, Hindalco, & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 688 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 696 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures, to the tune of 400 crores, and net sellers in Stock futures, to the tune of 769 crores. Nifty September Future settled at 5670, while the October series Nifty future settled at 5697 with 34 points premium to the spot, along with a massive addition of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.01, along with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 0.86%. On the Call options side the maximum open interest build up in the October series, has happened at the 5800 call, followed  by the 5700 & 5900 calls, while on the Put options side, the maximum open interest buildup has happened at the 5500 put, followed by the 5400, 5300 & 5200 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates that the action has shifted towards the futures expiry and the rollovers, mostly long are at their peak.

On the technical side, Nifty is still holding, fairly above the 5600 mark, for the fourth consecutive session, and as suggested a few days back, it will stay range-bound till expiry, before making any further moves. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5677, 5692 & 5711 on the upside and 5643, 5624 & 5609 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell today on the back of dollar demand from the oil refiners and dealers awaiting the government’s borrowing plans for the second-half of the year. The Rupee finally closed at 53.51, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.75 for the day.

On the international markets front, it was a sea of red as the Asian and the European markets have closed with deep cuts and the U.S. markets are also trading with loses on the back of unexpected fall in U.S. home sales figures and concerns about the worsening Eurozone debt crisis. On the Energy futures front, surprisingly the Brent Crude oil future is trading down by 0.81%at 109.56 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future is trading down by 2.06% at 89.50 $/bbl, even after a fall in the U.S. weekly crude oil inventories, on the other hand the Natural Gas future is trading up by 2.79% at  3.19 $/MMBtu.

ANTICIPATION

Once again the markets opened on a very flat note, and gave away all their gains within the next 45 minutes and traded in the negative zone for the next two hours, but surprisingly recovered all their losses and traded range-bound till the end of the session, and ultimately both the indices ended on a flat note. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 4 and 22 points respectively. The market breadth managed to stay marginally positive, with 777 advances to 706 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer for the day, while the Metal and Auto sectors were the biggest losers for the day. On the individual stocks front, Kotak Bank, Bhel, Cipla, Hind Unilever & ITC were the top five Nifty gainers for the day while Jindal Steel, Cairn, Axis Bank, JP Associate and Sterlite Industries were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side surprisingly, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a massive 5845 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1374 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net buyers in Index futures, to the tune of 645 crores and net sellers in Stock futures, to the tune of 610 crores. Nifty future settled at 5683 with just 9 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the options side PCR stood at 1.03, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 9.13 %. On the Call options side, except the 5800 call, which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from 4900 to 5900 calls and the story was same on the Put options side, where except the 5700 put, there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 4900 to 5900 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space is the same every month, just before the expiry, when positions are rolled over and the action shifts to the new series, but in the spot market the massive buy figures on the FII side adds credence to the fact, that the under current is still very strong.

On the technical side, Nifty was in a indecision period today and managed to stay above the 5600 mark, for the third consecutive session with increasing volumes, and the way things are shaping up on the F&O and cash markets side, the conditions are apt for the next up-move, once the new series begins. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5700, 5727 &  5751 on the upside and 5650, 5625 & 5598 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose today as foreign fund flows in stocks remained strong after the government fast tracked the fiscal and economic reforms. The Rupee finally settled at 53.36, while the   near month USD-INR future, which expires tomorrow also settled at 53.36 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed with decent gains and the U.S. markets after trading in the green on the back of better than estimated consumer confidence data and housing data have erased their gains after the comments by the President of Federal Reserve bank of Philadelphia said the “central bank’s new bond-buying program probably won’t boost growth”. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading almost flat at 109.81 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future is trading down by close to a percent at 91.29 $/bbl on the other hand the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.22% at 3.07 $/MMBtu.

LACKLUSTRE

The markets opened on a flat note, and touched their intraday highs within the first five minutes of the trade, but the excitement was short-lived and the markets gave away all their gains and traded in the negative zone for the next two hours, but again the markets recovered their losses and traded near the day’s high for the next two hours, but after the initial one and a half hours of trading in the second half, both the indices finally broke and ultimately closed near their day’s low. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 21 and 79 points respectively. The market breadth was marginally positive with 904 advances to 593 declines. On the sectoral front, FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Energy and IT sectors, while the rest of sectors closed with marginal gains or losses. On the individual stocks front, BHEL, Jindal Steel, M&M, Maruti & Rel Infra were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while HDFC, ONGC, Hind Unilever, ITC & HCL Tech were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1600 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1156 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 130 & 388 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5681, with just 11 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR fell to 0.98, along with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 0.53. on the Call options side, with a exception of the 5800 call which added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 and 5700 calls, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4900 to 5600 calls. On the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 5600 puts, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4900 to 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O space indicates, there was lack of participation from the market participants along with call and put writing at  higher levels, in order to define some trading range, just before the expiry as the action shifts to the new series.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to close above the 5600 mark, with slight fall in volumes, but still traded strongly for the entire session and with the expiry just ahead, it should trade range-bound, for the next three sessions before the next move happens in the new series. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be, 5699, 5728 & 5747 on the upside and 5651, 5620 & 5603 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell from its 4 month high and ended up almost flat, because of sustained dollar demand from oil importers. The Rupee finally settled at 53.47, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 53.48 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have ended in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses as European leaders clashed on ways to stem the debt crisis and reports from China and Germany signaled that the slowdown is deepening. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by close to two percent at 109.36 & 91.31 $/bbl respectively and the Natural Gas future is also trading down by close to a percent at 3.04 $/MMBtu.

EUPHORIA

Once again the markets surprised everyone and just when everybody thought that the markets may be topping out, the markets surged through the roof, well that’s the way it is and once again shows the importance of sentiments in the markets. The benchmark indices opened on a strongly positive note, and gained strength as the session progressed and ultimately touched their intraday highs at the start of the second half of the trading session and from this point onwards the markets maintained their momentum and traded near their day’s high and closed for the week with phenomenal gains. The Nifty and Sensex closed, up by 137 & 404 points respectively for the week. The market breadth was extremely positive with 1057 advances to 467 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, FMCG and Metal sectors, while the IT sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, Rel Infra, SAIL, Axis Bank, BHEL & Jindal Steel were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while TCS, Dr. Reddy, Infosys & Sun Pharma were the top four Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, once again FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a massive 2328 crores, and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1127 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, strangely the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 409 and 345 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5707, with 16 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side PCR fell to 0.98, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 1.66%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4800 to 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5800 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as futures markets, indicate addition of fresh longs in the cash as well as futures, along with profit booking in the lower levels, on the options side.

On the technical side, Nifty closed above its July 2011 high and once again managed to close comfortably above the 5600 mark and with the strong support from the FIIs, coupled with strongly positive indicators from the F&O side, Nifty is trading above all its short and long term exponential moving averages, making a perfect scenario for another round of strong and sustained up-move, but as it becomes clear that this is a purely liquidity driven rally, it makes perfect sense to take stock or sector specific bets right now. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5749 and 5807 on the upside and 5604, 5550 & 5517 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee closed at the highest level of the week at 53.27, buoyed by the strong rally in the domestic markets, on the back of governments resolve to go ahead with the reforms and the near month USD-INR future finally settled at 53.45 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets closed with decent gains, while the U.S. markets closed almost flat after the data showed consumer spending almost stagnated. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future closed up by 1.26% at 111.42 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future closed up 0.51% at 92.89 $/bbl and the Natural Gas future closed up by 3.15% at 2.88 $/MMBtu.

DILEMMA

The benchmark indices opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers, and traded with a strong negative bias throughout the trading session and ultimately closed at their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 46 and 147 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 515 advances to 966 declines. On the sectoral front, once again the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Energy and Metal sectors, while the IT sector was the sole and biggest gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, TCS, ONGC & DLF were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, on the other hand BHEL, GAIL, Reliance Infra, Tata Steel & Coal India were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side both the FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of a mere 74 & 331 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side also the story was same, with FIIs turning net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of a mere 5 and 429 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5571 with a premium of 17 points to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR increased to 1.24, along with a increase in the India VIX by 4.43%. On the Call options side, with the exception of the 5600, 5700 & 5500 calls which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4800 to 5800 calls. On the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5000 & 4900 puts, while the 5600 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5700 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates massive profit booking in the cash as well as stock futures along with liquidation of longs on the options side and marginal increase in longs in the Index futures.

On the technical side, Nifty could not hold on to the 5600 level, and must cover the gaps which were created on the way up, in order to confirm the trend reversal and tomorrow’s session will be crucial to determine the Nifty’s trend just before the expiry week. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5578 & 5603 on the upside and 5531, 5509 & 5484 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its lowest level of the week, in the back drop of the serious political crisis which threatens to undo the big ticket reforms measures undertaken by the government. The Rupee finally settled at 53.38, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.36 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses as data from Japan, China & Europe coupled with disappointing data from the U.S. economy, increased concern that a global economic slowdown is worsening. On the Energy future’s front, the Brent crude oil future is trading up by 1.13%  at 109.41 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future is trading almost flat at 92.19 $/bbl and strangely the Natural gas future is trading up by 1.29% at 2.79 $/MMBtu, even after an unexpected rise in the weekly U.S. Natural gas inventories.

HESITANT

As expected, the markets opened on a very flat note in the backdrop of domestic political uncertainty and traded range-bound, with a negative bias throughout the day and ultimately both the indices closed with moderate losses for the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 10 and 46 points respectively. The market breadth was positive with 922 advances to 579 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Midcap and FMCG sectors on the other hand Energy sector was the biggest loser followed by the IT sector. On the individual stocks front, PNB, BHEL, State Bank of India, GAIL and Bank of Baroda were the top five Nifty gainers for the day while Wipro, Cairn, TCS, Hindalco & Reliance Industries were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1049 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 671 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 114 & 629 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5612, with just 12 points premium to the spot along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side, the PCR stood at 1.18, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.28%. On the Call options side, except the 5700 & 5800 calls which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4800 to 5600 calls. On the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5600 puts, on the other hand the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5000 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates some level of profit booking along with sector specific creation of longs in the cash as well as the F&O markets.

On the technical side, somehow Nifty managed to close at the 5600 mark for the second consecutive session with slight fall in volumes, because of lack of participation from the market participants owing to the political uncertainty, but still Nifty is trading near it seven month high and has managed to close above all its short and long term exponential moving averages, coupled with strong open interest buildup on the futures side, there are more chances of Nifty touching new highs in the days to come, provided the government sticks to its path of fiscal prudence and does not succumb to political and populist compulsions. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5636 & 5659 on the upside and 5584, 5568 & 5550 on the downside.On the currency front, the Rupee closed unchanged yesterday, after two sessions of gains, although investors remained bullish on the back of the governments new reforms push. The Rupee finally settled at 54.01, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.04 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets had closed yesterday on a positive note, but the European and U.S. markets had closed with moderate losses, but today the scenario is quite different, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading with a positive bias on the back of better than expected  U.S. home sales data and Bank of Japan’s increased asset purchase target, seeking to avoid a further slowdown in the world’s third largest economy.

On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by close to 4 percent after an unexpected rise in weekly U.S. crude oil inventories at 107.78 & 91.88 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading almost flat at 2.77 $/MMBtu. 

WAIT AND WATCH

Once again the markets opened with a strong gap up and touched their intraday highs within the first two hours of the trading session, but from that point onwards the markets started losing all their gains and touched their intraday lows at the start of the second half of the trading session and to everyone’s surprise the markets bounced back from this level once again and recovered most of their gains and ultimately ended the day on a decent note. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 32 and 78 points respectively. The market breadth was positive with 896 advances to 616 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, Infra and Auto sectors, on the other hand the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the IT and Pharma sectors. On the individual stocks front, Rel Infra, DLF, Bank of Baroda, IDFC & JP Associate were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while ITC, TCS, Dr. Reddy, BPCL & HindUnilever were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of, a whooping 2252 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 838 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net buyers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 1122 and 428 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5617, with just 7 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Option side, PCR fell to 0.98 along with a massive jump in the India VIX by 15.60%. On the Call options side, the 5600 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 & 5400 calls, on the other hand the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 call. On the Put options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 and 5700 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates, addition of fresh longs in the cash as well as index futures along with put writing at higher levels, which validates this strong up-move and suggests that this uptrend can be sustained if the FIIs keep on getting positive vibes from the government regarding steps taken for fiscal consolidation.

On the technical side, Nifty closed at its seven month high mark with increase in volumes and managed to close on a positive note even after Friday’s gap up closing, indicating strength in the uptrend, but the sharp spike in the volatility levels and over-brought position on the daily and weekly charts may spoil the party and the most important factor, the political developments on the domestic front will be closely watched by the participants to take further calls on the Indian markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5646, 5682 & 5713 on the upside and 5579, 5548 & 5512 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose today, but retreated from its four month high after the RBI kept interest rates unchanged, thereby negating some of the positive impact from the government’s major reforms. The Rupee finally settled at 54.01 while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a strongly positive note, but the European markets have closed on negative and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses mainly on the back of two factors, 1) European union finance ministers failed to agree on the terms of bailout and the role of ECB. 2) Federal reserve Bank of New York’s index general economic index dropped to minus 10.41, indicating contraction.

On the Energy futures front, the Brent Crude oil future is trading down by 1.19% at 115.30 $/bbl, and the WTI crude oil future is trading almost flat at 98.92 $/bbl , while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 2.57% at 2.86 $/MMBtu.

ASCENT

The benchmark indices opened on a flattish note, but touched their intraday highs within the first two hours of the trading session, but from that point onwards, the markets gradually lost all their gains and touched their intraday low within the next one and half hours, and continued to trade range-bound till the end of the session and ultimately closed almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 4 and 21 points respectively. The market breadth turned negative till the end of the session with 597 advances to 895 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the IT, Banking and Energy sectors, while the Pharma sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, BPCL, Hero Motocorp, BHEL, RelInfra & Bajaj Auto were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, on the other hand Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Ranbaxy, Siemens & Sesa Goa were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 361 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 156 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any activity, where FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of mere 98 crores and net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 161 crores. Nifty future settled at 5451, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.16, along with a increase in the India VIX by 4.19%. On the Call options side, 5600 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5500 & 5400 calls and there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4600 to 5300 calls. On the Put option side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5500 puts, on the other hand the 5100 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 & 4900 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates marginal addition of long positions in the cash as well as the Index futures side, along with put writing at higher levels to take advantage of the  current up-move.

On the technical side, although it was a listless session, Nifty closed comfortably above the 5400 mark for the second consecutive session with marginal increase in volumes and with positive news flow from Europe  & U.S since yesterday, most of the global indices are geared up for a short term rally. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5459, 5465 & 5472 on the upper side and 5422, 5409 and 5397 on the downside. On the currency front, the Ruppe fell from its three week high, ahead of the Federal reserve meet and on account of oil firms and government, stepping up their dollar purchases. The Rupee finally settled at 55.42, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.43 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed, almost flat, but the U.S, markets are rallying after the Federal Reserve announced that it will buy mortgage-backed securities, to boost economic growth and reduce unemployment. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading up by 0.48% at 115.89 $/bbl and the WTI crude oil future is trading up by 1.24% at 98.21 $/bbl, while the Natural gas future is trading down by 0.77% at 3.03 $/MMBtu.

CAUTIOUS

The markets opened on a very flat note, and entered the negative zone within the first fifteen minutes of the trade, and continued this zig-zag movement of frequently entering the negative and positive territory for the entire trading session and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat for the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 5 and 17 points respectively for the day. The market breadth managed to stay positive with 802 advances to 680 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser for the day, and the Pharma sector was the biggest gainer for the day, while most of the sectors ended up marginally in the positive or negative zone. On the individual stocks front, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, Coal India, Tata Steel & Bajaj Auto were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while  Axis Bank, Jindal Steel, BHEL, State Bank of India & Tata Power were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 693 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 318 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side the FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 471 crores and net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of mere 23 crores. Nifty future settled at 5372, with just 9 points premium to the spot along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Option side, PCR stood at 1.15, along with a increase in the India VIX by 3.46%. On the Call options side, 5500 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5300 calls, while the 5200 call lost the maximum open interest. On the Put Option side, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 & 5200 puts, on the other hand the 4900 put lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5100 & 4800 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates profit booking in the cash as well as the Index futures ahead of some major news for the international markets.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to close comfortably above the 5300 mark, but the session was a very range-bound session, hence not much is to be read into today’s close as much of the momentum from this point onwards will be guided, by international and domestic news flow. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5375, 5388 & 5401 on the upside and 5349, 5336 & 5310 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee weakened today, on account of dollar demand from oil refiners, but further weakening was averted on hopes of monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve, following the weak non-farm payroll data on Friday. The rupee finally closed at 55.44, while the near month USD-INR future closed at 55.54 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a dull note, and the U.S. markets are also trading the same way after the Greek prime minister failed to secure agreement form coalition partners on spending cuts, which raised doubts over Greece’s debt crisis management and overshadowed speculation that central banks will take action to spur the economy. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures, are trading almost flat at 113.94 & 96.08 4/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.90% at 2.73 $/MMBtu.

COMEBACK

As expected, the benchmark indices opened with a gap up and continued to trade with the same momentum throughout the trading session and ultimately closed near their highest point of the day. The market breadth was extremely strong with 1037 advances to 450 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, IT & FMCG sectors. On the Individual stocks front, DLF, Tata Steel, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors & JP Associate were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while BPCL was the sole Nifty loser for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 502 & 218 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side also, the story was same, where FIIs were net buyers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of a massive 652 and 675 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5359, with just 17 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side PCR increased to 1.15, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 10.13%. On the Options side, except the 5600 call, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 4600 to 5500 calls. On the Put options side, the 4900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 & 5000 puts, while the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5200 & 5100 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets, clearly indicates addition of longs in the cash as well as the Index futures, along with liquidation of shorts on the call options side and put writing at higher levels.

On the technical side, till Thursday Nifty was struggling to stay above the 5200 mark, but the next day it was a all together different scenario where Nifty settled comfortably above the 5300 mark, with marginal increase in volumes. The next two sessions are going to decide, whether this up-move is sustainable and with most of the international indices closing on a strong note for the week, there are chances that this momentum is likely to continue for some more time. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5256, 5370 & 5394 on the upside and 5318, 5298 & 5287 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose on Friday, in line with the other Asian currencies and shares, after ECB put forward a plan for buying bonds to help the ailing Eurozone economies, which in turn increased the risk appetite of the markets. The Rupee finally settled at 55.35, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.52 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a very strong note, while the European and U.S. markets closed almost flat, after the strong rally on Thursday. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future closed up by 0.67%, at 114.25 $/bbl, and the WTI crude oil future closed up by 0.93 %, at 96.42 $/bbl, while the Natural Gas future closed down by 3.39%, at 2.68 $/MMBtu for the week.

RELIEF

The markets opened on a very sluggish note and continued to trade in the same range till the start of the second half of the trading session, but within half an hour of the start of the second half, the markets made a almost vertical rise and continued to rise for the next two hours and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session the markets started falling once again and gave almost all their gains till the end of the session and ended up almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 13 and 33 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking, Midcap & Auto sectors, on the other hand the FMCG sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja Cements, Wipro, Infosys, ACC & JP Associate were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while BHEL, ITC, Bharti Airtel, IDFC & Ranbaxy were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, there was very little participation, with FIIs turning net buyers to the tune of 167 crores and DIIs turning net sellers to the tune of a mere 34 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 296 crores and net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 139 cores. Nifty future settled at 5261, with 23 points premium to the spot along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the option side, the PCR increased to 0.93, with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 0.18%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5600 & 5200 calls, while on the Put options side, the 4900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000, 5200 & 5100 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets, indicates very little change since yesterday, but the call writing continued at higher levels along with addition of long positions on the put options side, due to the absence of sustained support from the cash markets and this is why the markets lost all their gains at the end of the day.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to hold on to the 5200 level, albeit on falling volumes but much of the relief from the sustained fall, came in anticipation of the positive news from the Eurozone and with the much expected outcome in place, the markets participants may cut their short positions and look forward to further news flow to take affirmative action. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5260, 5284 & 5293 on the upside and 5217 & 5196 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its three day losing streak, boosted by corporate dollar sales and gains in the Euro. The Rupee finally settled at 55.65, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.89 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a flat note, while the European markets have closed on a very strong note and the U.S. markets are also trading on a very firm note after the ECB announced specifics of its bond buying plan and the economic data boosted the optimism in the American labor market. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up, by more than a percent at 114.10 & 96.38 $/bbl respectively, on the back of more than expected fall in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.31% at 2.83 $/MMBtu on the back of fall in the weekly U.S. Gasoline inventories.

SOMBRE

The markets opened on a dismal note, once again for the ninth consecutive session and continued to trade range-bound in the first half of the trading session, but at the start of the second half of the trading session, things became worse and the markets touched their intraday lows, within the next half an hour. The markets  continued to trade in the same range, till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed near their day’s low. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 48 and 128 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with 594 advances to 883 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Pharma, Metals & Energy sectors, on the other hand the FMCG sector was the sole gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front, Bharti Airtel, Hind Unilver, TCS, ONGC & ITC were the top five Nifty gainers for the day,on the other hand BHEL, Axis Bank, Jindal Steel, Tata Steel & ICICI Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs & DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 189 and 166 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side also, the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 387 & 514 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5253, with 27 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate loss of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR stood at 0.85, along with an increase in the India VIX by 2.53%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500, 5200 and 5400 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 and 4900 puts, on the other hand the 5300 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 and 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets, indicates that while there was little participation in the cash markets, the selling in the Index and stock futures clears sums up the negative mood. On the options side, while there has been substantial call writing at higher levels, there has been no meaningful addition of shorts on put options side and there has been liquidation of longs on the Index futures side , in four out of the last five sessions, which suggests that although the markets are correcting, but there are no considerable short positions in the market and the selling has been mainly sector specific, which has led to a sustained fall in Nifty.

On the technical side, Nifty somehow managed to stick its neck above the 5200 mark, but the continuous selling in the key contributors to Nifty may lead some more panic reaction and take the Nifty to unreasonable levels. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5242 & 5277 on the upside and 5202, 5189 & 5162 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee, fell to its lowest level in three weeks, weighed down by the losses in the domestic stocks and skepticism about the ECB’s ability to formulate a concrete plan to help the debt-laden euro zone economies. The Rupee finally settled at 55.90, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 56.12 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed deep in the red, and the European markets have closed on a mixed note, while the U.S. markets are fluctuating between gains and losses on speculation that the ECB will act to tame the region’s debt crisis. On the Energy future’s side, the Brent crude oil future is trading down by 0.81% at 113.25 $/bbl, while the WTI crude futures is trading almost flat at 95.29 $/bbl and the Natural gas future is trading down by 2.30% at 2.78 $/MMBtu.