INDECISIVE

The markets witnessed huge intraday volatility and both the indices touched their intraday lows and particularly Nifty came very close to its strong support of 5150, but somehow managed to recover the  losses by the end of the session and both the indices managed to close flat on friday, but Saturday being a special trading day was quite and both Nifty and Sensex closed up by 18 and 53 points respectively. Although the market was negative on Friday with 573 advances to 908 declines, it was a different picture on Saturday with 770 advances to 502 declines. Well not much is to be read into Saturday's session because there was hardly any participation from the institutional activities with FIIs buying merely 6 crores  and DIIs merely selling 11 crores in the cash market. The star performers of the day were Sterlite Industries, Axis Bank, Ranbaxy, Sesa Goa.

The story was same, even on the derivatives side, where FIIs brought Index Futures and Stock futures worth 14 crores and 4 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5232, with 23 points premium to the spot, and loosing open interest close to 2.4 lakhs in the last two consecutive sessions. On the options side PCR increased to 1.02 on Friday, but subsequently decreased to 0.71 on Saturday, along-with a fall in the India VIX by 1.57%. On the Call option side, 5400 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 and 5600 calls, while on the Put options side, 5500 put shed the maximum open interest followed by the 5600 and 5200 puts. 

On the technical side Nifty has consolidated long enough in a particular range, for the last five consecutive sessions, a breakout may happen any moment based on the volume, open interest and volatility levels. It all depends on the domestic news flow and international economic scenario, which side the breakout happens. On the domestic side, most of the bigwigs have declared their corporate results and the markets have already priced in or one should say discounted the earnings and will find the justified levels in the weeks to come. Goings forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5238, 5255 and 5293 on the upside and 5142, 5120 and 5086 on the downside. The rupee ended almost flat, with USD-INR futures closing at 52.88.

The international markets ended in the green for the week, with a exception of Asia. There will be a lot of buzz from the European and U.S. markets from tomorrow morning, in the form of economic data from the Eurozone and U.S.

QUIET SESSION

The markets opened on a flat note and traded in the positive zone for the first one hour of the trade, but ultimately entered the negative zone and traded in a very narrow range, till the end of the session, and ultimately both Nifty and Sensex closed down by 13 and 21 points respectively. The market breadth was negative with 555 advances to 905 declines. The star performers of the day were Kotak Bank, TCS, ACC & Coal India. On the institutional side there was extremely low participation with FIIs turning net sellers to the tune of -348 crores and DIIs were net buyers, merely to the tune of 63 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side FIIs sold Index futures worth 348 crores and brought Stock futures worth 61 crores. Nifty May Futures closed at 5214, with 25 points premium to the spot, along-with a considerable addition of open interest. Overall there was 62.87% rollover of Nifty futures, which shows the market participants were unwilling to carry large positions to the next series, due to the extreme uncertainty surrounding the market. On the options side PCR fell to 0.9, along-with a moderate fall in the India VIX by 1.06%. On the Call options side, the May series has opened with the highest open interest at 5600 call, followed by the 5400 & 5500 calls, while on the Put options side the highest open interest is at 5000 put followed by the 5100 & 5200 puts.

On the technical side, Nifty has consolidated near the 5150 level, for the fourth consecutive day, on very low volumes. It remains to be seen, that how the market participants are going to participate at these levels, to ensure this as a valid support. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5209, 5234 & 5245 on the upside and 5173,5155 & 5137 on the downside. The USD-INR depreciated further and USD-INR futures closed at 52.90.

On the international market front the European markets have closed flat on the back of poor economic data, while the U.S. markets are trading on a flattish note on the back of mixed data such as more than expected jobless claims data and better than expected housing data. The Brent and WTI crude are trading at 119.70 and 104.45 $/bbl.

CONSOLIDATION ??

The markets opened on a flat note and traded in the same range for the first two and half hours of the trade, until the news of downward revision of the Indian economic outlook by the S&P hit the markets and as a knee jerk reaction, the markets reacted sharply, with both the indices, touching the lowest point of the day within the next fifteen minutes and stayed at those levels for the next one hour, but ultimately tracking their Asian and European peers, the markets eventually started recovering from the lows, but were unable to recover the losses till the end of the session, eventually both Nifty and Sensex closed down by 21 and 56 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 465 advances to 1005 declines. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the worst performer followed by the Midcap and banking sector, while the FMCG sector was the only performer of the day. Sterlite, Heromotocorp and SesaGoa were the top three performers of the day. On the institutional side the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 341 crores while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of merely 41 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs sold Index futures worth 315 crores and brought Stock futures worth 218 crores.Nifty futures closed at 5198, 4 points discount to the spot along-with a considerable loss in open interest, which is quite obvious at the end of the series, when active rollovers happen. On the options side PCR increased slightly to 1.03, along with a slight fall in the India VIX by 1.61%. On the Call option side, with a exception of 5100 and 5300 calls, there was shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5600 calls, while on the Put option side with a exception of 5100 put, there was considerable loss of open interest from 5000 to 5600 puts. Today's activity in the F&O space indicates call and put writing in all the out-of money calls & puts, which is quite normal at the end of the series. The only solace from the entire data, comes from the fact that unlike the previous four month series,  the May series is not opening with a unusually high premium. 

On the technical side Nifty has consolidated, near the 5150 level, for three consecutive sessions, which indicates some sort of base formation and augurs well for a trend change. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5238, 5256 & 5275 on the upside and 5166,5123 & 5086 on the downside.The rupee ended with modest gains, with the USD-INR futures closing at 52.58.

On the international market front the European markets have closed comfortably in the green on the back of mixed economic data, while the U.S. markets are trading comfortably in the green on the back of robust corporate results and the Federal reserves statement, that growth will gradually accelerate and the benchmark rates have been kept unchanged at 0.25.

Meanwhile the Brent and WTI crude are trading flat at 118.64 and 103.97 $/bbl on the back of rise in U.S. crude oil inventories.

PAUSE

The markets opened on a negative note and both the indices touched their intraday lows, within first one and a half hours of the trading session, but just when everything seemed to be moving towards the worst, the markets consolidated and made a smart pullback within the next half an hour of the trade and continued the positive momentum for the rest of the day, with both Nifty and Sensex closing, up by 22 and 111 points respectively for the day. TCS was the star performer of the day, followed Wipro, SAIL and Tata Power. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 861 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 419 crores in the cash market. On the derivatives side FIIs sold Index futures worth 33 crores and brought stock futures worth 139 crores.

Nifty futures closed at 5224, with just 1 point premium to the spot, along-with a considerable loss of open interest. On the options side PCR decreased to 1.02, along-with a massive fall in the India VIX by 10.76%. On the Call options side, with a exception of the 5200 and 5300 calls , there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5600 calls. On the Put options side, with a exception of the 5000 put there was shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5600 puts. Today's activity in the F&O space indicates, rollover of positions to the May series, along with some long build up at the lower levels, which indicates some level of support at these levels. The smart recovery in the markets along with the fall in the volatility, augurs well for the market. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5250, 5266 & 5283 on the upside and 5176, 5150 on the downside. 

On the international market front the European markets have closed in the green and the U.S. markets are trading flat on the back mixed housing and manufacturing data. The rupee depreciated further and the USD-INR futures closed at 52.77.The Brent and the WTI crude are trading flat at 117.93 and 103.25 $/bbl respectively.

SURPRISE

The markets opened on a flat note, and continued to trade in a range for the first two and half hours of trade, but post 11.30 a.m. onwards the markets started slipping on a one way downward journey and to make matters worse, the European markets opened deep in the red, tracking its Asian peers and on the back of  worse than expected economic data from the Eurozone. From this point onwards it was a one-way journey and the markets could not recover and both Nifty and Sensex closed near the lowest point of the day, down by 90 and 277 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 342 advances to 1142 declines. On the sectoral front major cuts came from the Banking sector, followed by the IT, Midcap and FMCG sector. There was absolutely no respite , with across the sector selling. Sun Pharma and ACC were the only performers of the day. On the institutional side FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 407 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 452 crores in the cash market. 

On the derivatives side FIIs were net sellers in the Index and Stock Futures to the tune of 508 and 177 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5198, with a discount of 2 points to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. Nifty futures closed at a discount for the first time, in the last three months.On the options side, the PCR increased to 1.11, along with a massive jump in the India VIX by 7.36%.On the Call options side, there was massive addition of open interest from the 5100 to 5400 calls, while the 5500,5600 and 5000 calls shed open interest. On the Put option side there was considerable loss of open interest from the 5200 to 5600 puts, while the 5000 & 5100 puts added the maximum open interest.

The entire activity in the F&O space suggests unwinding of longs, on the futures side along with addition of  longs at lower levels on the options side, which indicates some support coming at the lower levels. The sharp fall in the markets along with a sharp rise in the volatility levels is quite normal and may lead to further sell off, before the markets find some stability for themselves.

The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5232 and 5277 on the upside and 5176, 5154 & 5109 on the downside.

On the international markets front, the U.S. markets are trading deep in the red, while its European and Asian peers have also closed in the red. The rupee depreciated further today and USD-INR futures closed at 52.60. The Brent and WTI crude are trading at 107.86 and 102.47 $/bbl respectively.

Stock Picks

AXIS BANK - BUY 1090 - 1110 SL 1070. TGT 1142,1159, 1170

LT - BUY 1220 -1230 SL 1190. TGT 1269, 1288.

TREND CHANGE ??

The markets opened on a negative note, and continued to trade range-bound till the second half of the entire trading session, but suddenly a freak trade in the Nifty futures at 5000 level , around 2.30 pm, spooked the market and both Nifty and Sensex, fell sharply by 100 and 283 points respectively from the high point of the day and again made a sharp recovery from those levels, but could not recover the entire loss and eventually both Nifty and Sensex ended down by 44 and 130 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 522 advances to 975 declines. On the sectoral front, major cuts came from the Banking, Energy and Midcap shares. M&M was the only performer of the day. On the institutional side both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 314 and 135 crores respectively in the cash market. On the derivatives side the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock Futures to the tune of 103 and 499 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5302, with 11 points premium to the spot and a considerable loss in open interest. On the option side PCR increased to 1.10, along with a increase in the India VIX by 3.82%. On the Call options side, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5600 call. The 5500 call shed the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 call and 5400 calls. On the Put option side, with a exception of 5100 put, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5600 puts. The 5300 put shed the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 and 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates profit booking ahead of the expiry week, and nervousness among the market participants, looking at the slightest sign of nervousness to exit the market. On the technical side, the weekly charts are still positive, but the failure to sustain the 5300 level on the daily charts, indicates a failure of the trend which could lead to some further selling. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5305, 5335 & 5368 on the upper side and 5275, 5262 & 5214 on the lower side. On the international market front, the U.S. and the European markets ended in the green on the back of good corporate data from the U.S. and better than expected consumer confidence data from Germany and retail sales data from U.K. The USD-INR futures ended at 52.16 while the WTI and Brent crude were trading at 103.88 and 118.76 $/bbl respectively.

STOCK PICKS

LT - SELL 1313-1320, SL 1335. TGT 1272, 1258.

AXIS BANK - SELL 1200- 1220. SL 1240. TGT - 1158, 1137. 

CAUTION

The markets opened on a flat note and momentary entered the negative zone, within the first one and a half hours of the trading session and recovered thereafter, to stay range-bound for the entire day and both Nifty and Sensex closed, up by 32 and 111 points respectively. On the sectoral front the FMCG shares were the major gainers followed by the Banking and the IT shares. The star performers of the day were Coal India, Maruti, Kotak Bank & Tata Motors. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 745 advances to 735 declines. On the institutional side, the FIIs were sellers to the tune of merely 102 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 101 crores in the cash market. On  the derivatives side the FIIs brought Index futures worth 653 crores and sold stock futures worth 372 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5356, with 24 points premium to the spot and addition of considerable open interest. On the options side PCR decreased to 1.05,  with a fall in India VIX by 3.39%. On the Call options side, with a exception of 5500 call, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5600 calls, while on the Put options side 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 and 5100 calls. The activity in the F&O space indicates unwinding of shorts and addition of long positions for the fourth consecutive session. This entire activity is happening, on the back of low volumes and lack of institutional participation in the spot market, which makes us skeptical, of the gains in the last four sessions. On the technical side, the positive momentum must continue for a few more sessions to confirm the  trend reversal. The levels to watch for Nifty will be 5352, 5372 & 5403 on the upside and 5292,5278 & 5260 on the downside.On the international market side the European markets have closed in the red, while the U.S. markets are trading in the red, on the back of poor corporate results and worst than expected jobless claims and existing home sales data.The USDINR futures closed at 52.22 and the WTI and Brent crude futures are trading flat.

STOCK PICKS

AXIS BANK -  SELL 1210-1220, SL 1234. TGT - 1182, 1171

LT -                  SELL 1320- 1330 SL 1353. TGT - 1308, 1293

INDECISIVE

The markets opened on a firm note, and continued to trade in the same range, till the second half of the trading session, but after the European markets opened, the markets slowly pared all their gains and both Nifty and Sensex closed for the day, up by 10 and 34 points respectively. On the sectoral front, there were hardly any gains and much of the gains were contributed by individual stocks. The star performers for the day, were ACC, Tata power, Cairn and HCL Tech. The market breadth was somehow positive, with 858 advances to 636 declines. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of merely 222 and 38 crores respectively in the cash market. On the derivatives side FIIs brought Index Futures worth 589 crores and sold Stock futures worth 297 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5322, with 22 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side PCR increased to 1.06, with a moderate fall in the India VIX (-1.37%). On the Call option side there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5300 calls, with a corresponding increase in open interest from 5400 to 5600 calls, while on the Put options side, with a exception of 5100 and 5600 puts, there was considerable addition of open interest from 5000 to 5500 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, more unwinding of shorts along with long positions created at the upper end of the market. In fact the options data for the last seven consecutive sessions indicate Nifty may be able to cross the 5400 barrier. On the technical side the positive momentum has created some reversal signs, but it remains to be seen how long will this up-move be sustained in the absence of full fledged institutional participation. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5330, 5365 & 5377 on the upside, and 5275, 5258 & 5222 on the downside. On the international market side the European markets have closed in the red, and the U.S. markets are also trading in the red , on the back of poor corporate data. On the commodities front both Brent and WTI Crude are trading down by 1- 1.5% on the back of rise in U.S. crude oil inventories.

STOCK PICKS

AXIS BANK - SELL 1220-1240, SL 1255. TGT - 1170, 1160

POSITIVE EFFECT

The markets opened on a flat note, and maintained the same trend, till the monetary policy was announced, which came as an unexpected positive surprise and the market gave a thumbs up, by instantly reaching the highest point of the day, but in the next one and a half hours gave away all its gains. As the picture became clearer, the markets made a almost V shaped recovery and both Nifty and Sensex ended close to the highest point of the day, up by 63 and 207 points respectively. The rally was mainly led by the FMCG sector, followed by the banking and midcap shares. The star performers of the day were Relinfra, Rcom, ONGC, JP Associate and Heromotocorp. The market breadth was positive with 889 advances to 582 declines. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 441 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 203 crores in the cash market. On the derivatives side, FIIs brought index futures worth 503 crores and sold stock futures worth 44 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5319, with 30 points premium to the spot, and considerable increase in open interest. On the options side PCR increased to 1.03, along with a big fall in the India VIX (-8.63%). On the Call options side, with a exception of 5500 call, there was considerable shedding of open interest 5000 to 5600 calls, on the put option side, except the 5100, 5500 & 5600 calls, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates that today's rally was a result of massive unwinding of shorts, along with creation of some fresh longs. However it remains to be seen that, with the monetary policy behind us, from this point onward, the focus will shift to corporate results, which will guide the markets. Going forward Nifty must sustain the 5300 level, on a closing basis for few sessions with good volumes, to ensure that today's move was not a false move. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5322, 5355 & 5367 on the upside and 5222, 5208 and 5175 on the downside. On the international market front the European markets have closed in the green on the back of good economic data, while the U.S markets are trading in the green on the back of a very optimistic forecast from IMF regarding the growth of the U.S. economy and slowing down of the Eurozone crisis.

LACKLUSTURE

The markets opened on a dull note,and remained sluggish throughout the day and moved from the positive to the negative territory many a times and ultimately both Nifty and the Sensex closed marginally up by 19 and 56 points respectively. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 841 advances to 634 declines. As expected, before tomorrow's monetary policy review, with a exception of Bank Nifty, there was hardly any movement in any sector. The top three performers of the day were Tata Motors, Axis Bank and JP Associates. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 509 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 218 crores in the cash market. On the derivatives side, FIIs sold Index futures worth 333 crores and brought stock futures worth 102 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5248, with 22 points premium to the spot and a moderate fall in open interest. On the options side the PCR decreased to 0.92, along with a moderate fall in the India VIX. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 & 5400 calls, on the Put option side, the 5300 put option added the maximum open interest, while the 5400 put shed the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 put. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates some unwinding of shorts, as well as moderate increase in long positions just ahead of tomorrow's big event. On the technical side, not much has changed since yesterday and all the indicators are still in sell mode. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5257, 5269 & 5312 on the upside and 5195, 5164 & 5148 on the downside. The European markets managed to close in the green, on the back of better than expected trade balance figures, while the U.S. markets are trading flat on the back of mixed economic and corporate data.

ANXIETY

The markets opened on a flat note, and the tone was positive until Nifty made a peak of 5306,. The positive momentum continued till late in the afternoon, but by the time, the European markets opened, both the Nifty and the Sensex had pared all the gains. After a wide intraday movement, both the Nifty and Sensex ended  down by 64 and 238 points respectively. There was across the sector selling, but the major cut came from the banking and the midcap shares. The market breadth turned negative, with 529 advances to 954 declines. The only performers of the day were Dr. Reddy's, Kotak Bank and Sun Pharma. On the institutional side, again there was again, lack of participation from the FIIs, who were net buyers to the tune of mere 137 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 480 crores in the cash market. On the derivatives side FIIs brought Index futures worth 214 crores and sold Stock futures worth 105 crores. Nifty future closed at 5221,with a premium of 14 points to the spot, and moderate addition of open interest for the second consecutive day. On the options side the PCR increased to 1.09, along with a jump in the India VIX by 4.53%. On the Call option side, with a exception of 5500 & 5000 calls, there was  considerable addition of open interest from 5100 to 5600 calls, while on the Put options side, with a exception of  5000 & 5400 puts, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5600 puts. The activity in the F&O space shows considerable call writing along with increase in the implied volatility, which is adding downward pressure to the market, weakened by lack of participation. On the technical side, both the daily and weekly charts are showing a clear downtrend, which will reverse, only if Nifty starts closing above 5322 level, on a daily basis for a few sessions. In the current scenario, once again, i would like to reiterate that, every bounce-back should be used a selling opportunity. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5256, 5273 & 5323 on the upside, and 5151, 5090 & 5038 on the downside. The forthcoming week will be action packed with corporate results and RBI's monetary policy review.

As expected, the markets opened on a negative note, and continued the same trend throughout the day, except at one point the markets recovered all the losses, taking cue from the strong opening of the European markets and support from the banking shares, but the gains were short-lived and the markets pared all the gains,with both the Nifty and Sensex closing down by loosing, 17 and 44 points respectively.  The only performers of the day were Kotak Bank and Sun Pharma.The market breadth was negative, with 568 advances to 902 declines. The lack of institutional activity was again visible, with FIIs & DIIs turning net sellers, merely to the tune of  446 and 82 crores respectively in the cash market. On the derivatives side, the FIIs sold Index futures worth 311 crores and brought stock futures worth 144 crores. Nifty futures ended at 5251, with 25 points premium to the spot and minuscule loss of open interest. On the options side PCR increased to 1.01. On the Call option side, the 5200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5300 calls, while on the Put option side, the 5100 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 & 5200 puts. The India VIX was marginally up by 1.68%. Today's activity in the F&O space suggests, call writing at higher levels and at the same time addition of puts is adding pressure to the weak markets. On the technical side, all the indicators are in sell mode and the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5256, 5283 & 5300 on the upside, and 5189, 5153 & 5144 on the downside. A short term bounce-back cannot be ruled out based on trends from international market, but the overall market trend still remains down and every rise will be used as a selling opportunity.

The U.S. markets are trading in the green on the back of good economic and corporate data and the European markets have managed to close in the green for the day.

INDECISION

The markets opened on a shaky note, closely following its international peers and stayed very sluggish throughout the day, strangely inspite of deep cuts in the Asian and the European markets. Both the  Nifty and the Sensex stayed range-bound, and closed marginally, up by 9 and 22 points respectively.The star performers of the day were Tata Power, R-Com and Tata motors. The market breadth was also indecisive with 693 advances to 783 declines. There was very little participation from the institutional side, where both the FIIs and DIIs were net sellers, to the tune of merely 328 and 190 crores respectively in the cash market. On the derivatives side, the FIIs sold index futures worth 687 crores and brought stock futures worth 245 crores. Nifty future closed at 5266, with 23 points points premium to the spot and a moderate fall in open interest. On the options side the PCR increased marginally to 0.96. On the call options side, with a exception of the 5000 call, there was addition of open interest from 5100 tom 5600 calls, while on the Put options side the 5000 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 and 5100 puts.

The India VIX was marginally down by 1.83%, clearly reflecting the market sentiment. The entire activity in the spot and the futures markets indicate complete lack of confidence in the market participants, who are selling in the spot market as well as writing calls at higher levels. The root cause of this problem lies in the adhoc policy measures taken by the government on the taxation of FIIs and unnecessary populistic measures of intervening in the pricing of fuels and unfavorable FDI measures. On the technical side, the markets are in a weak zone and the adverse news flows are making matters worse. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5261,5286 & 5305 on the upside and 5203, 5192 and 5145 on the downside. The U.S. markets are trading deep in the red, while the European markets have closed in the red on the back of more worrying signs from Spain, where the possibility of a bailout has been ruled out.

HERE WE GO DOWN.

The markets opened after a long holiday, with a gap down, on the back of deep cuts in the Asian markets. The markets stayed deep in the red, throughout the day and ultimately both Nifty and Sensex closed in the red, down by 88 and 263 points respectively. The only star performers of the day, were Ranbaxy & Dr. Reddy. The market breadth was extremely negative with 493 advances to 1011 declines, which was a result of across the sector selling by the FIIs and DIIs. The FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 269 crores and 106 crores respectively, in the cash market. On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers both in Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 1092 and 261 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5253, with 19 points premium to the spot, and a moderate fall in open interest. On the options side the PCR fell to 0.91.On the Call options side, with a exception of 5000 call, there was considerable addition of open interest from 5100 to 5600 calls, on the Put options side with a exception of 5000 and 5100 puts, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5200 to 5600 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates massive call writing for the second consecutive session, along with profit booking in , in-the money puts. Meanwhile the India VIX shot up sharply by 8.24% confirming the extreme volatility and indicating there may be further downside. On the technical side , all the indicators are in a sell mode, while Nifty closed below its major support at 5260, the levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5291 & 5308 on the upside, and 5203,5190 & 5140 on the downside. On the international front U.S. markets are trading in the red, while the European markets closed almost flat. The major cause of market fall seems to be worse than expected inflation data from China , leaving little room for the central bank to cut rates and ultimately compromising on growth.

TRADE WITH CAUTION

The markets opened on a negative note mainly due to profit booking, ahead of a shortened trading week. The sentiment was negative throughout the day, with both the Nifty and Sensex closing for the week, in the negative territory, down by 35 and 111 points respectively. The star performers of the day were BHEL and Ranbaxy. The market sentiment was absolutely indecisive, with 702 advances to 771 declines, which was clearly indicated from these figures, where FIIs were net buyers to the tune of only 46 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 127 crores in the cash market.On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in both the index and stock futures, to the tune of 168 and 151 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5344, with premium falling by 11 points, to 22 points and a considerable loss in open interest. On the options side PCR slightly fell to 1.18. On the Call options side, with a exception of 5000 & 5200 calls, all the calls from 5300 to 5600 added considerable open interest, with the maximum addition happening at the 5600 call, while on the put options side, with a exception of 5100 & 5200 puts there was considerable loss of open interest from 5000 to 5600 puts. The entire activity on the F&O side indicates short covering on the futures side, along with call writing at higher levels, which will act as tough resistance points to break, in the days to come. As suggested last week, the sudden fall in the India VIX led to a technical spike up in the markets, but on Wednesday, the  sudden rise in VIX, along with Nifty failing to break the resistance of 5382, is a cause of worry. On the technical side both the daily and weekly charts are in a sell mode, and Nifty has made a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows from 22nd of Feb to 4th of April, and nifty retracing close to 50% of the gains, is a clear indication that the uptrend may be loosing steam. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5352, 5367 & 5408 on the upside and 5297, 5260 on the downside. The next two weeks are going to be action packed ,with corporate results, RBI's monetary policy and government's policy on fuel pricing, setting the tone of the market for the rest of the month. On the international markets side, U.S. manufacturing and employment data will be closely watched.

LACKLUSTURE

The markets opened on a flattish note, but maintained a positive bias throughout the day, except for an hour when both Nifty and Sensex entered the negative zone, but regained the positive momentum and closed for the day on sluggish volumes, up by 22 points and 75 points respectively. The star performers for the day were JP associate, Reliance infra and Reliance power. The market was extremely positive with 1105 advances to 405 declines. The FIIs were net buyers to the the tune of 245 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 73 crores in the spot market. On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of 192 crores and net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 113 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5350, with 33 points premium, and considerable loss of open interest. On the options side PCR remained steady at 1.10. On the Call options side, there was shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5300 calls, along with a considerable addition of open interest from 5400 to 5600 calls, while on the Put options side there was sizeable buildup of open interest from 5100 to 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space suggests short covering, along with participants hedging the portfolios, by adding puts at lower levels. The fall in India VIX by 6.70% also suggests that, markets may move higher from these levels. As suggested yesterday, the level of 5372 on Nifty proved crucial, and Nifty futures touched the overhead resistance of 5372. On the technical side, most of the indicators on the daily charts are trending upwards on the back of two positive sessions, but on the weekly charts they are still in sell mode. In order to confirm the hanging man, that was formed on the candlestick charts on Friday, the markets must continue the positive momentum for a few more sessions. The levels to watch out for Nifty, tomorrow will be 5339, 5361, 5373 on the upside and 5287, 5253 on the downside. The European markets closed on a strong note on the back of better than expected manufacturing data, from Germany and U.K., while the U.S. markets are trading on a flattish note, on the back of mixed data which shows a unexpected fall in construction spending and better than expected PMI manufacturing data.

STOCK PICKS

LT - BUY 1295-1306, SL - 1275. TGT - 1346, 1361.

AXIS BANK - 1115 - 1125, SL - 1095. TGT - 1168, 1182.

The markets opened with a positive bias, on the expectation of a favorable outcome on the P- notes taxation aspect, and as expected responded aptly with both Nifty and Sensex closing for the week, up by 116 points and 345 points respectively. The star performers of the day were Kotak Bank, IDFC & SAIL.The market breadth was extremely positive with 1163 advances to 343 declines and the FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 962 and 116 crores respectively in the cash market, but on the derivatives side the FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 500 crores and net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 111 crores. Nifty futures closed at 5333, with premium down to 38 points, with a moderate loss in open interest. On the options side the PCR increased to 1.10. On the call side there was considerable addition of open interest from 5000 to 5600 calls, with a exception of the 5100 & 5200 calls, on  the put side the scenario was almost same, with a exception of 5000 and 5500 puts, all the puts from 5100 to 5600 added considerable open interest. The entire activity on the F&O side indicates that there was some short covering, which pulled the markets higher. Although the markets staged a smart recovery, they are still not out of the woods, until Nifty makes a close above 5372. On the technical side, a hammer formation has taken place on the weekly candlestick chart, indicating a trend reversal, but its too early to presume, until Nifty closes above the crucial level mentioned above. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5333, 5372 on the upside and 5229,5193 on the downside.

Stock Picks

Axis bank - BUY 1120-1133, SL 1105. TGT - 1161, 1173

LT -  BUY 1290 -1300, SL 1260. TGT - 1322, 1335