TREND CHANGE ??

The markets opened on a negative note, and continued to trade range-bound till the second half of the entire trading session, but suddenly a freak trade in the Nifty futures at 5000 level , around 2.30 pm, spooked the market and both Nifty and Sensex, fell sharply by 100 and 283 points respectively from the high point of the day and again made a sharp recovery from those levels, but could not recover the entire loss and eventually both Nifty and Sensex ended down by 44 and 130 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 522 advances to 975 declines. On the sectoral front, major cuts came from the Banking, Energy and Midcap shares. M&M was the only performer of the day. On the institutional side both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 314 and 135 crores respectively in the cash market. On the derivatives side the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock Futures to the tune of 103 and 499 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5302, with 11 points premium to the spot and a considerable loss in open interest. On the option side PCR increased to 1.10, along with a increase in the India VIX by 3.82%. On the Call options side, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5600 call. The 5500 call shed the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 call and 5400 calls. On the Put option side, with a exception of 5100 put, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5000 to 5600 puts. The 5300 put shed the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 and 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates profit booking ahead of the expiry week, and nervousness among the market participants, looking at the slightest sign of nervousness to exit the market. On the technical side, the weekly charts are still positive, but the failure to sustain the 5300 level on the daily charts, indicates a failure of the trend which could lead to some further selling. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5305, 5335 & 5368 on the upper side and 5275, 5262 & 5214 on the lower side. On the international market front, the U.S. and the European markets ended in the green on the back of good corporate data from the U.S. and better than expected consumer confidence data from Germany and retail sales data from U.K. The USD-INR futures ended at 52.16 while the WTI and Brent crude were trading at 103.88 and 118.76 $/bbl respectively.

STOCK PICKS

LT - SELL 1313-1320, SL 1335. TGT 1272, 1258.

AXIS BANK - SELL 1200- 1220. SL 1240. TGT - 1158, 1137.