PERPLEXED

The benchmark indices opened on a very flat note and within the first 10 minutes of trade the markets entered the negative zone and continued to trade in the negative zone throughout the entire trading session with occasional pullbacks, but ultimately both the indices closed very near to their day’s low. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 3 and 12 points respectively. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, but still the FMCG sector was the biggest loser for the day, while the rest of the sectoral indices closed marginally in the positive or negative zone. On the individual stocks front, PNB, DLF, ACC, Gail & BPCL were the top five Nifty gainers, while HCL Tech, IDFC, TCS, ITC & LT were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 826 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 201 crores in the cash markets.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 250 crores and net buyers in Index Options to the tune of 835 crores, and they were net sellers in both Stock futures and Options to the tune of 246 & 37 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5951, with 46 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR stood at 1.07 along with a massive increase in the India VIX by 9.68%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while on the Put Options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5700, 5800 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was purely stock specific, while in the F&O space the market participants continued to add on to their long positions along with put writing at higher levels in the market.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to hang on to the 5900 level and continued to trade in the narrow range mentioned yesterday. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5929, 5942 on the upside and 5895, 5885 & 5873 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell once again today, mainly due to oil related dollar demand, and weighed down by a wide current account gap, the slow pace of financial reforms and economic uncertainties at home and abroad. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.99, while the near month USD-INR future closed at 55.19 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a mixed note, while the U.S. markets are trading with modest gains amidst speculation that Congress will reach a deal to head off more than $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 0.04 & 0.48% at 110.67 & 91.25 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 3.07% at 3.36 $/MMBtu. 

WAIT AND WATCH

The markets opened on a flat note but continued to trade with a positive bias throughout the entire trading session, but with just half an hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets made a almost vertical ascent and closed near their day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 38 & 121 points respectively. The market breadth was evenly poised with 786 advances to 706 declines. On the sectoral front, the Energy sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the IT & FMCG sectors. On the individual stocks front, Reliance, ONGC, BPCL, WIPRO and Infosys were the top five Nifty gainers, while Sun Pharma, M&M, Tata steel,  State Bank of India & HDFC Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 833 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 530 crores in the cash markets.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index Futures and Options to the tune of 219 and 1825 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 152 crores and net buyers in Stock options to the tune of 108 crores. Nifty future settled at 5954 with  49 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.16, along with a marginal decrease in India VIX by 0.80%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5900 & 5700 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5700 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the Cash market was sector specific, while in the F&O side FIIs continued to add on to their long positions in the call options side, along with corresponding put writing at the lower levels of the market.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close marginally above the 5900 mark, but it has been consolidating in the range of 5823 to 5965 for close to two weeks, and markets are eagerly waiting for a trigger to breakout of this range either on the upside or downside, depending on the various macro and microeconomic events about to unfold in the coming weeks. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5923 & 5942 on the upside and 5886, 5858 and 5827 on the downside. There are four major events about to unfold in the weeks to come (i) India will release current account data for July-September on Monday amid expectations of a record high deficit. (ii) Global risk factors will be key for Indian debt and FX markets as U.S. lawmakers continue negotiations over  the “fiscal cliff”. (iii) Hopes for interest rate cut will gather steam in the new year. (iv) RBI will issue the T-bill issuance calendar for the Jan-March quarter which will be closely watched to see whether RBI will  fund its extra borrowing with short term paper. On the currency front the partially convertible Rupee closed marginally up at 54.75, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.11 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a modest note, but the European and the U.S. markets have close deep in the red as investors watches budget talks in Washington. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures, closed almost flat at 110.62 & 90.8 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future closed up by 1.67% at 3.47 $/MMBtu.

ANXIOUS

The markets opened on a very flat note, and traded almost flat for the entire first half of the trading session, but just at the start of the second half of the trading session the markets entered the negative zone and with just half an hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets fell almost vertically and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 35 and 94 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 525 advances to 970 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser followed by the IT sector, while the rest of the sectoral indices closed marginally in the negative. On the individual stocks front, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, State bank of India, Dr. Reddy & ONGC were the top five Nifty gainers while BHEL, GAIL, Asian Paint, Jindal Steel & Power Grid were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side there was hardly any activity, with FIIs turning net sellers to the tune of mere 132.68 crores and DIIs turning net buyers to the tune of 132.77 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in Index futures and Options to the tune of 427 & 59 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 887 crores and net buyers in Stock options to the tune of 135 crores. Nifty future settled at 5930, with a premium of 60 points to the spot. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.83, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.55%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5500 calls. On the Put option side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5800, 5900 & 6000 puts. The entire activity in the cash markets was stock specific, while in the F&O space the huge premium on Nifty future indicates that a lot of bullish positions have been carried forward to the new series and accordingly the build up is also visible on the options side.

On the technical side, although Nifty corrected in the later half today due to squaring - off of some left over positions, but the fall was not significant at all since there were no major cuts or short positions on the stock as well as sectoral front. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5912 & 5944 on the upside and 5853 and 5822 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell after two sessions of gains tracking lower stocks and as oil refiners brought dollars. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.93, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.25 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a fairly positive note but the U.S. markets are trading with losses amidst an impasse on federal budget talks and as consumer confidence declined more than forecast. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by close to a percent at 110.12 & 90.15 $/bbl respectively and the Natural Gas future is trading 0.51% at 3.40 $/MMBtu.

ANTICIPATION

The markets opened on mildly positive note and continued to trade rangebound with a positive bias for the initial two hours of the trading session, but from this point onwards the markets made an almost vertical ascent and touched their intraday highs in the first hour of the second half of the trading session and continued to hold on to their intraday gains till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed very near to their day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 50 & 162 points respectively. The market breadth was also positive with 819 advances to 679 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer followed by the FMCG, Energy & Pharma sectors.On the individual stocks front Bharti Airtel, JP Associate, ICICI Bank, LT & Jindal Steel were the top five Nifty gainers, while HindUnilever, Heromotocorp, TCS, HCLTech and Infosys were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 744 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of  301 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any activity, where the FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and Options to the tune of 163 & 189 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 111 crores and net buyers in Stock options to the tune of mere 14 crores. Nifty January future settled at 5964 with 58 points premium to the spot along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.93, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.69%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5800 calls, while on the Put options side, 5900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 6000 puts. The entire activity in the Cash markets was sector specific while in the F&O space, it was mainly rollover activity which took centre stage and the rollovers point to a positive outcome in the January series.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to cross the 5900 level, with marginal increase in volumes, but since today’s rally was mainly led by short covering, it remains to be seen, whether Nifty breaches the overhead resistance of 5947, in order to resume another upmove. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5928, 5951 & 5986 on the upside and 5852 & 5818 on the downside. On the currency front , the Rupee rose to a near one week high, buoyed by hopes of continued strong capital inflows as shares posted a strong show. The partially convertible Rupee finally settled at 54.83, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.89 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a fairly positive note, while the European markets have closed on a almost flat note and the U.S. markets are trading with little change as a better than expected rise in home price data was overshadowed by U.S. budget negotiations. On the Energy futures front both the  Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 1.68 & 2.47% at 110.66 & 2.48 $/bbl respectively and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.08% at  3.41 $/MMBtu.

LISTLESS

The markets opened on a very quite note after Friday’s correction but continued to trade with a mildly positive bias throughout the entire trading session and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 8 & 13 points respectively. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 736 advances to 769 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, but still the IT sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Media, FMCG & Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, Tata Motors, DLF, Wipro, Axis Bank & Sun Pharma were the top five Nifty gainers, while Jindal Steel, ONGC, Maruti, Ultratech Cement & Grasim were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 460 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 238 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index Futures and Options to the tune of 178 & 234 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 319 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of mere 98 crores. Nifty futures settled at 5866, with just 10 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.98, along with a fall in the India VIX by 0.96%. On the Call as well the Put Options side, there was massive loss of open interest, indicating hectic rollover to the next series. Nifty January future settled at a hefty premium of 61 points premium to the spot, along with a massive addition of open interest, while on the Options side, January 6000 call has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5800 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5800 put has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700, 5600 & 5900 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was again stock specific, while in the F&O space healthy rollovers have taken place till now.

On the technical side, although it was a listless session, Nifty managed to hold on to the crucial level of 5845 and as mentioned yesterday much of the movement will depend on the F&O expiry and international economic news. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5870 & 5886 on the upside and 5843, 5812 & 5748 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee reversed its earlier losses to close stronger against the dollar today, aided by custodial flows and dollar sales by software exporters. The partially convertible Rupee, finally closed at 54.95, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.99 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while most of the European markets were closed today and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses amid concern that U.S. president and the Congress will fail to agree on a budget by the end of the year. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading with marginal losses at  108.72 & 88.52 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 2.84% 3.38 $/MMBtu.

EDGY

The benchmark indices opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers and the market breadth gradually worsened as the session progressed and ultimately both the Indices closed at their lowest point of the week. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 69 & 212 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 358 advances to 1166 declines. On the sectoral front, there was across the sector selling, but the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Energy, Pharma & FMCG sectors. On the individual stocks front, there were hardly any gainers with TCS and Axis Bank barely managing to close in the green, while JP Associate, IDFC, Jindal Steel, Bharti Airtel & DLF were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, although there was hardly any participation, but surprisingly both, FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 115 & 258 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 123 crores and net buyers in Index Options to the tune of 1014 crores, while they were net sellers in Stock futures and Options to the tune of mere 56 & 2 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5853 with just 5 points premium to the spot along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.91, along with a rise in the India VIX by 2.16%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 6000 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, while the 5900 put lost the maximum open interest followed by the 6000 & 5800 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was restricted to specific stocks, while on the F&O side, the sudden fall in the markets caused massive call writing at higher levels along with profit booking on the higher side of the market in the Put option side and the major action is shifting to the next series because the holiday shortened trading week has pushed the participants to start rolling over their positions, well in advance.

On the technical side, Nifty could not hold on to the 5900 level and succumbed to the selling pressure, but still there is no reason to worry, as  the rollovers  are healthy and still there are no major shorts in the system to create a severe market crash. The market direction over the next week will mainly be decided by the F&O rollovers and economic news from the international markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5876 & 5905 on the upside and 5829, 5810 and 5782 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee hit a three week low in Friday as uncertainty over the U.S. fiscal cliff resolution dented demand for risk assets including domestic equities. The partially convertible rupee, finally closed at 55.06, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.19 for the week.

On the international markets front the Asian, European and the U.S. market have all ended deep in the red as uncertainty over resolution of the U.S. cliff still remains a  major factor, the effects of which were visible in the Energy futures market also where both Brent & WTI crude oil futures closed down  by 1.12 & 1.63% at 108.97 & 88.66 $/bbl respectively and the Natural gas future managed to close up by mere 0.32% at 3.45 $/MMBtu.

INDECISION

The markets opened on a mildly positive note, tracking their Asian peers and after the initial one hour of trade the markets fell almost vertically and touched their intraday lows within the next half an hour,  and from this point onwards the markets traded sideways for the next two hours, but recovered almost all their losses to close almost flat, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 13 & 22 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 600 advances to 897 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, with most of the sectors closing either marginally in the positive or negative. On the individual stocks front, Hindalco, Jindal Steel, Hind Unilever, Tata Steel & TCS were the top five Nifty gainers, while Ambuja Cement, Sun Pharma,  BPCL, JP Associate and M&M were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 467 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 444 crores.

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any activity, with the FIIs turning net buyers in Index futures and Options to the tune of mere 56 &154 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures and Options to the tune of 114 & 22 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5931 with just 15 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.99 along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.04%. On the Call Options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 5000 to 5800 calls. On the Put Options side, the 6000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 put, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5900 puts. The entire activity in the Cash as well as the Futures markets indicates complete indecision in the markets.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to hold on to the 5900 level despite the uncertainty, but the massive loss of open interest on the Index futures side, indicates liquidation of long positions and gradual shift of interest to the new F&O series. Most of the focus will now shift to the new series and Nifty may consolidate in a tight range till expiry unless there are any major global headwinds. The level to watch out for Nifty will be 5941 & 5967 on the upside, and 5897 & 5845 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell once again today, as heavy dollar buying by oil refiners and gold importers continued to hurt the domestic currency amid another bout of risk aversion globally. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.84, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.92 for the day.

On the international markets front the Asian markets except Nikkei have closed on a flat note, while there was hardly any movement in the European markets and the U.S. market are trading with very little change , on the back of good Home sales and manufacturing data as investors remain focused on the budget negotiations. On the Energy futures front, the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading with marginal losses at 110.17 & 89.97 $/bbl respectively, while Natural Gas future is trading up by 3.39% at 3.43 $/MMBtu, on the back of data showing more than expected fall in the U.S. Natural Gas storage levels.

TREND CHANGE

The markets opened with a gap up, buoyed by the positive measures taken by the government and RBI’s view on the economy. The markets traded with a strong positive bias throughout the day and ultimately both the indices closed near their highest point of the day. The market breadth was extremely positive with 869 advances to 649 declines. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 33 and 111 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the Pharma sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy and IT sectors, while the FMCG sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Tata Motors, Asian Paint & WIPRO were the top five Nifty gainers, while HDFC, LT, Axis Bank, ITC & ICICI Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1245 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 369 crores.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in Index futures, to the tune of 166 crores and net buyers in Index Options to the tune of 445 crores and they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of mere 48 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 39 crores. Nifty future settled at 5947, with just 17 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.98, along with a marginal increase in India VIX by 0.21%. On the Call options side, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 6000 put. The entire activity in the Cash markets was broad based today, while in the F&O there was mainly profit booking in the Index futures as well as options side.

On the technical side, once again Nifty managed to break the 5900 barrier, with marginal increase in volumes and the strong FII inflows coupled with good news on the domestic front, will help sustain an upmove, although occasional hiccups like headwinds from the international markets may halt the upmove, the markets are much more resilient now than they were a few months back. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be, 5942, 5955 & 5971 on the upside and 5913, 5895 & 5884 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its five day losing streak as dollar sales by power sector financing firm helped offset the demand from oil and gold importers. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.55, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.72 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a strongly positive note, while the European markets have also closed on a positive note , but the U.S. markets are trading with loses on the back of decrease in housing stats. On the energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 1.30 & 1.91 % at 110.25 & 90.09 $/bbl respectively on the back of fall in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 2.18% at 3.34 $/MMBtu on the back of unexpected rise in U.S. weekly inventories.

INFLECTION POINT

The benchmark indices opened on absolutely flat note and continued to trade rangebound with negative bias for most of the first half of the trading session, but towards the end of the first half and the start of the second half of the trading session the markets made a almost vertical ascent on the back of better than expected inflation data and hopes of RBI’s action in the near term. The market breadth started improving with passing time and ultimately both the indices closed at their highest points of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 28 & 88 points respectively. The market breadth also improved considerably and ended up almost marginally negative with 720 advances to 777 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer followed by the Metals and IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Sesa Goa, Hindalco, Bank of Baroda, Jindal Steel & State bank of India were the top five Nifty gainers, while Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, JP Associate, BHEL & Dr. Reddy were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 574 crores while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 512 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index & Stock futures to the tune of 134 & 22 crores respectively while they were net buyers Index & stock options to the tune of mere 15 & 9 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5914 with 35 points premium to the spot along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.98, along with a fall in the India VIX by 3.26%. On the Call options side, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5600 puts. The activity in the cash market was again sector specific, while in the F&O space there was profit booking on the Call options side, along with a corresponding put writing at higher levels.

On the technical side, although Nifty has not been able to break the 5900 barrier for the last three sessions, there has been relatively no addition of short positions. The future course of markets will be decided by the major reform decisions to be taken by the government and RBI’s monetary policy meet. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5897, 5915 & 5939 on the upside and 5850, 5817 & 5778 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its lowest level in over a week on Friday after heavy dollar buying by a large state run bank wiped out all gains even as a below expected inflation reading raised hopes that the central bank could start cutting interest rates.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a mixed note, and the European markets closed on a flat note, while the U.S. markets have closed with marginal losses. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures have closed up by 1.62 & 0.98% at 108.18 and 86.73 $/bbl respectively, while Natural Gas future closed down by 0.99% at 3.31 $/MMBtu.

CAUTION

The markets opened on a very flat note and continued to trade with a negative bias till the second half of the trading session and with just one and a half hours left for the end of the day’s session the markets fell almost vertically and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 36 & 126 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 444 advances to 1097 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Pharma, Banking and IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Jindal Steel, Bajaj Auto & Power Grid were the top five Nifty gainers, while Sesa Goa, ITC, Hindalco, IDFC, & Rel Infra were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, surprisingly the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1256 crores and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 666 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures and Options to the tune of 350 & 206 crores respectively and they were also net sellers in the Stock futures and Options to the tune of 637 and 14 crores respectively. Nifty future finally settled at 5876, with 25 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.91, along with an increase in India VIX by 1.38%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000 & 5800 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 5900 puts. The activity in the cash market was completely sector specific, while the fall in the markets for the third consecutive session has led to some call writing at higher levels along with a corresponding addition of long positions on the Put options side.

On the technical side, Nifty has convincingly broken the 5900 level and has traded below it for three consecutive sessions and to make matters worse, there seems to be no breakthrough happening on the domestic policy front and the global headwinds are also taking their toll, but inspite of all these factors, the FII flows are continuing. It may too early to suggest a trend change, but strict stop losses should be maintained in case the scenario worsens from this point onwards. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5891& 5932 on the upside and 5825, 5809 & 5770 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell today, dragged by a late slide in the domestic stock market and a fall in Euro. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 54.46, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.64 for the day.On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed in the red and the U.S. stock markets are also trading with losses, after a better than estimated jobless claim report was offset by remarks from the U.S. house speaker, that “White house is not serious about cutting spending”. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by 0.87 & 0.36% at 107.07 & 86.47 $/bbl respectively and the Natural gas future is trading down by 1.88% at 3.31 $/MMBtu.

CONSOLIDATION

The markets opened on a positive note and touched their intraday highs at the end of the first hour of the trading session, but from this point onwards, the markets started losing their gains and gradually the market breadth worsened as the session progressed and ultimately, with just two hours left for the end of the day’s session, the markets entered the negative zone and ultimately both the benchmark indices closed almost flat for the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 10 & 22 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 476 advances to 1073 declines. On the sectoral front, the energy sector was the biggest loser followed by the IT and Banking sectors, while the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front, Jindal Steel, Bajaj Auto, Ambuja Cement, Hind Unilever & Ultratech Cement were the top five Nifty gainers, while Hindalco, Bhel, Cairn, DLF & NTPC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, surprisingly FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1310 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1028 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and options to the tune of 487 and 255 crores respectively and net sellers in Stock futures and Options to the tune of 349 and 16 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5928, with 29 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.92, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 1.10%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5800 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6000 puts, while the 5500 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the Cash market was again stock specific, while in the F&O space the markets participants continued to add to their long positions, along with some profit booking in the call and put options side.

On the technical side, after four consecutive sessions of trading above the 5900 mark , Nifty finally broke the level but managed to close very near to it. Nifty is still trading above all its short and long term moving averages and the momentum indicators on the weekly charts indicate, there is still more upside left. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5948 & 6009 on the upside and 5833, 5809 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose today on the back of inflows from Bharti Infratel IPO and expected dollar sales, from a share sale by NMDC but data showing a high trade deficit weighed on investor sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.26, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.47 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a positive note and the U.S. markets are trading on a strong note after German confidence climbed up and amid speculation that progress was being made in federal budget talks in Washington. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading almost flat at 106.38 & 85.59 $/bbl respectively while the Natural Gas future is trading marginally down at 3.44 $/MMBtu.

PAUSE

The markets opened on a positive note and touched their intraday highs within the first 10 minutes of the session and traded with a positive bias till the start of the second half of the trading session, but ultimately gave all their gains and touched their intraday lows till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 23 and 68 points respectively. The market breadth also turned negative with 678 advances to 855 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser followed by the IT, Energy & FMCG sectors. On the individual stocks front, Maruti, M&M, Tata Power, Bank of Baroda, & Hindalco were the top five Nifty gainers, while DLF, Axis Bank, Sesa Goa, HCL Tech & Tata Steel were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 648 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 798 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and Options, to the tune of 369 & 100 crores respectively; on the other hand they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 304 crores and net buyers in Stock options the tune of mere 6 crores. Nifty future settled at 5945 with 38 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal loss of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.91, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.84%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5800 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5500 & 5800 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was again sector specific, while on the F&O side there was some profit booking in both call and put options, but the overall situation still remains positive.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above the 5900 level for the third consecutive session, and the technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts indicate there is still more upside. Nifty needs to consolidate above this level for a few sessions in order to make a sustained upmove. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5942 & 5977 on the upside and 5880, 5853 & 5818 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell, snapping three sessions of gains, dragged by the euro’s weakness but according to dealers the Rupee may gain if the government can push through more reforms in the parliament next week. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 54.47, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.71 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian  and the European markets have closed on a flat note, while the U.S. markets rose for a third day as faster than forecast growth in jobs overshadowed concerns about budget negotiations. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed almost flat at 107.02 & 85.93 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future closed down by 3.14% at 3.55 $/MMBtu.

ANTICIPATION

The benchmark indices opened on a positive note, mainly on the back of optimism that the government will be able to pass the test of vote on the FDI issue and traded with a positive bias, throughout the entire trading session and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 11 and 44 points respectively. The market breadth was positive with 893 advances to 640 declines. On the sectoral front, the Bank Nifty was the biggest gainer, followed by the Metals & Energy sectors, while the IT sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, Sesa Goa, DLF, Hindalco, PNB & BPCL were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while Tata power, Infosys, Wipro, Bajaj Auto & HCL Tech were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, once again FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 878 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 648 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, Nifty future settled at 5940 with 40 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.77, with a rise in the India VIX, by 4.46%. On the Call options side, except the 5900 call which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 6000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5900 & 5700 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the futures market saw addition of long positions along with profit booking on the call options side.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close at the nineteen month high of 5900 with increase in volumes, and most of the technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts indicate a sustained uptrend along with that, the positive newsflow and F&O data suggests that we may see newer highs in the days to come. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5930, 5942 & 5986 on the upside and 5888, 5876 & 5865 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose for the a fifth session, as investors remained hopeful for a parliamentary approval to foreign direct investment in the multi brand retail sector. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.54, while the near month USD-INR future closed at 54.78 for the day.

On the international  markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a positive note, while the U.S. markets have risen after a two day drop in the S&P 500 index, as investors watch developments in budget negotiations in Washington amid better than forecast economic reports. On the Energy futures front both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by 0.50 & 0.41% at 109.19 & 88.11 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading up by 4.22% at 3.68 $/MMBtu.

BREATHER

The markets opened on a positive note, but could not sustain their positive momentum after the initial one hour of trade and from that point onwards, the markets started trading with a negative bias throughout the day and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat.  The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 9 & 35 points respectively. The market breadth was however positive with 938 advances to 588 declines. On the sectoral front there was hardly any activity, but the Banking sector was the biggest loser followed by the FMCG sector. On the individual stocks front, ACC, Ultratech Cement, SBIN, BHEL & Reliance Industries were the top five Nifty gainers, while HDFC Bank, IDFC, Bharti Airtel, GAIL & HCL Tech were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, there was subdued activity today, where the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 303 crores ad the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 336 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the story was the same  where FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 251 crores and net buyers in Index Options to the tune of 646 crores, while they were net sellers in both Stock futures and Options to the tune of 73 & 104 crores respectively.  Nifty future settled at 5911, with 40 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Index options side, PCR stood at 1.01, along with a rise in the India VIX by 3.10%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5800 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5700 & 5900 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O space indicates sector and stock specific profit booking along with addition of longs on the higher side of the market.

On the technical side,  spot Nifty came striking close to 5900 level and ultimately closed very near to it, although some profit booking is bound to happen at these levels, the undercurrent is still very strong and it may take a few more sessions to establish, whether an intermediate top formation has taken place or there is still more upside left. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5895 & 5919 on the upside and 5850, 5829 & 5807 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its three session winning streak as importers including oil and gold firms increased dollar purchases, while weak domestic markets failed to offer much respite. The partially convertible Rupee closed at 54.77, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.90 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed almost flat, and the U.S. markets which rose earlier today on the back of encouraging Chinese manufacturing data and Greece’s debt buyback offer, are trading unchanged right now as an unexpected drop in American factory index offset a gain in China manufacturing. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading down by 0.15% at 111.06 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future is trading up by 0.40% at 89.27$/bbl and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.31%  at 3.60 $/MMBtu. 

UPTREND

Once again the markets opened on a positive note, for the third consecutive session , but continued to trade almost flat for the initial two hours of the trading session but after the initial two hours, the markets started gaining strength with every passing hour and ultimately both the indices closed near their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 55 & 169 points respectively. The market breadth was also positive with 939 advances to 587 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy & Metals sectors. On the individual stocks front, Jindal Steel, BHEL, ONGC, IDFC & BPCL were the top five Nifty gainers, while Hind Unilever, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy, Maruti & Bajaj Auto were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs continued with their massive buying spree for the third consecutive day, where they were net buyers to the tune of 1611 crores while as expected the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 799 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and Options to the tune of 596 & 1544 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures and Options, to the tune of 13 & 46 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5909, with 29 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.97, with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 1.43%. On the Call options side, the 6000 Call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5400 to 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5400, 5700 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was sector specific, while in F&O space the market participants continued to add on to their long positions.

On the technical side, Nifty continued to make new highs, post the breakout on Tuesday, and the F&O data suggests that there may be still more upside left, before the markets become overbrought, in the short term. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5900, 5921 & 5958 on the upside, and 5842 & 5805 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose for the third straight session. helped by capital inflows on optimism that the government will be able to win a vote in parliament and push through key reforms. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.26, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.60 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a fairly positive note, while the European and the U.S. markets have closed almost flat. On the energy futures front both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures have closed up by 0.42 & 0.95% at 111.23 & 88.91 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future has closed down by 2.38% at 3.56 $/MMBtu.