CAUTION

The markets opened on a positive note, and continued their positive momentum till the start of the second half of the trading session, from where the markets lost almost their entire gains and with two hours left for the end of the trading session, the markets entered the negative zone and touched their lowest point of the day, but surprisingly made a V shaped recovery and touched their intraday highs, and ultimately closed almost flat, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, up by 10 and 41 points respectively. The market breadth also turned negative till the end of the session with 698 advances to 767 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, while the rest of the sectors closed almost flat or marginally in the negative. On the individual stocks front, the top five Nifty gainers for the day were HindUnilver, Ranbaxy, Sterlite Maruti & Power Grid. On the institutional side, for a change FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 253 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of a mere 39 crores.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 255 crores and net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 110 crores. Nifty future settled at 5135, with just 7 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR increased to 0.90, along with a considerable fall in the India VIX by 9.06%. On the Call option side, the near month call of 5300 lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5500 calls. On the put option side, the 5300 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 & 4900 puts, on the other hand the 5100 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 put. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O space is a routine activity, just before the future expiry, when most of the positions are rolled over to the next series, but the modest gains in the markets along with a fall in the volatility levels was a much needed relief for the markets.

On the technical side, once again Nifty closed below the 5150 mark, with increase in volumes and also, below most of its short and long term exponential moving averages, for the second consecutive session and as suggested yesterday, I would still maintain that any fresh position must be taken only after a trend reversal sets in. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5147, 5166 & 5182 on the upside, and 5106, 5098 and 5084 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its lowest level of the month, as worries about the Eurozone crisis, continues to hit the global risk assets such as the euro, while investors are still getting wary after waiting for government’s word on the policy reforms. The rupee finally settled at 56.12, while the near month USD-INR future finally settled at 56.24 for the day.

On the international markets front, Asian markets have closed flat, while the European markets have closed in the red, and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses after a series of disappointing economic data from retail to manufacturing. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading almost flat at 103.11 & 88.30 $/bbl, while the Natural gas future is trading up by close to a percent at 3.13 $/MMBtu.

DESPAIR

The markets opened with a gap down and drifted downwards throughout the session and ultimately closed near their lowest point of the day. It was the biggest percentage fall, since Mid-May, as investors booked profits in the recently outperforming sectors, after global risk aversion hammered Asian shares and growing concerns among domestic investors that the government may not be able to deliver substantial policy reforms after last week’s presidential elections. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 87 and 281 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 360 advances to 1132 declines. On the sectoral front, there was across the sector selling, but the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the FMCG, Midcap, Metals & Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, only Dr. Reddy's, Cipla & ONGC managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of mere 109 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 354 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers, both in the Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 488 and 312 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5120, with just 2 points premium to the spot, along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR fell to 0.85, along with a huge jump in the India VIX by 10.48%. On the Call option side, the 5200 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 call. On the other hand the 5400 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5500 calls. On the Put option side, the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 put. On the other hand the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800 & 4900 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O space indicates massive unwinding of longs along with opportunistic call and put writing, just ahead of the expiry, but the massive jump in the volatility levels, doesn’t augur well for this nervous market.

On the technical side, Nifty has breached the crucial support of 5150, but on falling volumes. Nifty has closed below most of its long and short term moving averages, and much of the direction will depend on the news flow from the domestic and international front. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5149 & 5178 on the upside, and 5096, 5074 & 5040 on the downside and with all the major technical indicators on the daily as well as the weekly charts in sell mode. It would be safe, to take positions only if the markets show reversal signs over the next three or four sessions. On the currency front, the Rupee fell the most in a month, as risk assets got plumelled, sending the euro sharply lower against most currencies, but the Rupee found major support from large dollar sales by a petrochemical company. The rupee finally settled at 55.96, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 56.05 for the day.

On the international market front, the story was the same with the Asian and the European markets hammered down mercilessly, and the U.S. markets are also trading the same way. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading down by 2.5 % at 104.39 & 89.58 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading almost flat at 3.07 $/MMBtu.

WAIT AND WATCH

The markets opened on a flat note and continued to trade in the same range for the first 45 minutes of the trading session, but fell almost vertically from that point and touched their intraday lows, within the next few minutes. The markets traded in the same range till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed, down by 38 and 120 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 514 advances to 943 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest looser, followed by the Pharma sector, while the rest of the sectors closed almost flat or marginally in the negative zone. On the individual stocks front, Bajaj Auto, Maruti, Asian Paint, TCS & JP Associate managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 178 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 64 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net buyers in both the Index and Stock Futures to the tune of 656 and 112 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5217 for the week, with 12 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Option side the PCR fell to 0.99 along with an increase in the India VIX by 3.11%. On the Call option side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 and 5400 calls, on the other the 5000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 call. On the Put option side, the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100, 5300 & 4900 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, liquidation of long positions on the futures side, along with some call writing at higher levels to take advantage of the sudden fall ahead of the future’s expiry week. Since there has been no addition of shorts ahead of the expiry, any major downside is very unlikely.

On the technical side, the Nifty could not breach the elusive mark of 5250, and somehow managed to close above the 5200 mark, after touching the intraday low of 5198 on falling volumes. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5230, 5255 and 5272 on the upside and 5192, 5179 & 5152 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell on Friday, snapping three successive weeks of gains as risk aversion, plumelled global risk assets such as the euro, and this sentiment will be the key for the rupee next week, although investors are also eyeing the possible policy reforms from the government, after the presidential elections, results are out on Sunday. The partially convertible rupee settled at 55.32 for the week, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.38 for the week.

On the international markets front the Asian, European and U.S. markets fell on Friday after Spain’s heavily indebted Valencia asked for financial aid, which raised fears that the Spanish government may ask for a full-blown bailout and the European Central Banks said it would stop accepting Greek bonds as collateral, adding to concerns about the Euro zone debt crisis. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and the WTI crude oil futures, cooled off a bit and finally settled at 106.83 & 91.83 $/bbl respectively for the week, while the Natural Gas future has closed, up by 2.73% at 3.08 $/MMBtu for the week.

ELATED

The markets opened with a gap up, tracking their Asian peers but strangely the markets could not capitalize on their gains and stayed range-bound for the entire trading session and ultimately both the indices closed near their day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 26 and 94 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy and Metal sectors. On the individual stocks front, Cairn India, BPCL, Infosys, IDFC & BHEL were the star performers of the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 126 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 229 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, surprisingly the FIIs were net buyers in both the Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 656 and 112 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5257, along with a moderate loss in open interest. On the options side, the PCR increased to 1.15, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 6.08%. On the Call options side, the 5200 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300, 5600 & 5000 calls, while the 5400 call added the maximum open interest. On the Put option side, the 5000 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900 & 5100 puts, on the other hand the 5200 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 put. The activity in the cash as well F&O space, indicates massive short covering along with addition of fresh long positions, particularly by the FIIs in the cash markets and the fall in the volatility levels augur well for the markets in the short term and any positive news flow within the next few sessions may spark a short term rally for the markets.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above the 5200 level and came within a striking distance of closing above the elusive 5250 mark, along with increase in volumes. Its premature to say that the trend has changed, but the data suggests things are changing for the better. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5256, 5269 & 5281 on the upside and 5231 & 5217 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee gained after a sharp recovery in the euro prompted the foreign banks to sell dollars, while the rise in the domestic shares, spurred the domestic banks to sell dollars however the good dollar demand from defence and oil companies, limited what could have been a sharp rise in the rupee. The rupee finally settled at 55.12, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.19 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a firm note but strangely the U.S. markets are also trading on a positive note even after a series of disappointing economic data, amidst better than estimated corporate earnings and speculation that dismal economic data will prompt the Federal Reserve to add stimulus. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with considerable gains at 107.78 & 93.04 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading almost flat at 2.97 $/MMBtu.

ANXIOUS

The markets opened on a very flat note and touched their intraday lows within the first two hours of the trading session, but recovered their entire losses till the start of the second half of the trading session and continued to trade within a range for the next two hours and with just one and a half hours left for the end of the day’s session the markets made a almost vertical ascent and touched their intraday highs and ultimately closed near their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 23 and 80 points respectively. The market breadth was evenly balanced with 745 advances to 731 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the IT, Auto & Midcap sectors. On the individual stocks front, Bajaj Auto, was the biggest gainer followed by Tata Power, Sesa Goa, Jindal Steel, & Maruti. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 276 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 166 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 273 and 270 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5224, with 8 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the options side, the PCR increased to 0.94, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.91%. On the Call option side, the 5200 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500, 5100 & 5300 calls, on the other hand the 5400 call added the maximum open interest. On the Put options side, 5000 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 4800 puts, on the other hand 5100 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 put. The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O space, indicates the marginal gains in the markets were mainly a result of short covering.

On the technical side, Nifty breached the crucial level of 5178 on an intraday basis, but managed to close above the 5200 mark. This up-move is mainly in anticipation of a favorable outcome on the government’s policy front. The technical indicators are still in a sell mode and the next two sessions will determine the direction of the markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5236, 5256 & 5269 on the upside and 5182, 5151 & 5128 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee touched its lowest level of the week, tracking losses in the euro as well as dollar demand  from defence and oil firms. The rupee finally settled at 55.48, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.49 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed in the red, while the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading in the green on the back of  better than expected housing starts data & corporate results. On the energy futures front, the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading on a strongly positive note at 105.19 & 90.08 $/bbl respectively, on the back of fall in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories and the Natural gas future is trading with a massive gain of 6.03% at 2.96 $/MMBtu, after a unexpected fall in the weekly U.S. gasoline inventories.

DILEMMA

The markets opened on a mildly positive note, and continued to trade within the same range for the initial one hour of the trade, but gradually lost their momentum and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets entered the negative zone and both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty closed down by 4 points, while the Sensex closed up by 2 points for the day. The market breadth turned extremely negative with 429 advances to 1050 declines. On the sectoral front, the Auto sector was the biggest looser followed by the IT & Energy sectors, on the other hand the FMCG sector was the sole and the biggest gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front, there were quite a few like, Wipro, Dr. Reddy’s, ITC, Sun Pharma & Coal India, which managed to outperform the markets for the day. On the institutional side once again the FIIs were net buyers, to the tune of 475 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 266 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures worth 129 crores and sold Stock futures worth a massive 411 crores. Nifty future settled at 5199, with just 6 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR fell to 0.81, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 5.27%. On the Call option side, the 5500 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5600 & 5100 calls, on the other hand the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 call. On the Put options side, the 5300 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5100 puts, while the 5000 put added the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the F&O as well as the spot markets indicates, addition of shorts in the Index futures and options, along with addition of fresh longs by FIIs in the spot market. Although there has been considerable addition of shorts, the sharp fall in the India VIX, may provide relief to the markets in the short term.

On the technical side Nifty has broken the 5200 level, and closed below the 5250 level for the fourth consecutive session with slight fall in volume and most of the technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts are in a sell mode. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5225 & 5257 on the upside and 5177, 5149 & 5117 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose, as the dollar weakened ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman’s appearance before the U.S. congress, but the dollar demand from the oil companies kept a check on any sharp gains. The Rupee finally settled at 55.12, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.18 for the day.  The two major factors which will guide the markets going forward are (i) The presidential elections on Thursday, given widespread expectations the government will announce long-stalled economic reforms, in what could boost foreign investor sentiment and flows in Indian markets. (ii) On the economic front , weaker than expected rainfalls during the monsoon period have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and the potential impact on the rural consumption.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, and the European markets have closed almost flat, while the U.S. markets are trading with marginal gains. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with marginal gains at 104.09 & 89.20 $/bbl respectively and even the Natural gas future is trading up by 0.52% at 2.81 $/MMBtu.

HERE WE GO DOWN.

The benchmark indices opened on a flat note, but it was a start to a rollercoaster trading session, when the markets, after initially trading in the positive zone for the first hour of trade, entered the negative zone for the next one hour of trade, but recovered all their losses and  traded in the positive zone for the next two and a half hours, before sliding once again and closing near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 30 and 110 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative, with 542 advances to 938 declines. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest loser, followed by the FMCG, Auto and Banking sectors, on the other hand the Pharma sector was the sole and biggest gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front, there were quite a few, like Bharti Airtel, Maruti, Dr. Reddy, Axis Bank and Bank of Baroda, which managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 257 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of mere 41 crores in the cash market. 

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any activity, where FIIs brought Index futures worth 57 crores and sold Stock futures worth 96 crores. Nifty future settled at 5207, with 10 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side PCR fell marginally to 0.95, along with a increase in the India VIX by 2.79%. On the Call option side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 & 5400 calls, on the other hand the 5600 call lost the maximum open interest, followed, by the 5500 & 5100 calls. On the Put option side, the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5400 puts, on the other hand the 5000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4900, 4800 & 5100 puts. The entire activity in the F&O as well as the cash markets, shows the activity has become sector and stock specific, with the overall market sentiment turning negative with each passing session. There has been addition of fresh shorts, along with call writing at higher levels with corresponding put writing at lower levels, indicating the markets will become very range-bound in the day’s to come, unless there is any major event on the micro and macro-economic level.

On the technical side, Nifty has closed below the crucial level of 5250, for the third consecutive session with fall in volumes due to lack of participation, thus confirming the downtrend, which has been validated by the F&O data. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5232 & 5267 on the upside, and 5178, 5147 & 5120 on the downside. On the currency front, out of the last nine sessions the Rupee fell for the seventh session tracking decline in domestic shares, after data showing steady core inflation cast doubts, whether the RBI will lower interest rates this month. The rupee settled at 55.31 for the day, while the near month USD-INR future, settled at 55.36 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed almost flat while the U.S. markets are trading with losses after the IMF cut its global growth forecast and a report showed that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly dropped. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading up by 1.15% at 102.58 $/bbl while the WTI crude future is trading up by 0.35% at 87.81$/bbl, but the Natural gas future is trading down by 2.96% at 2.79 $/MMBtu.

LACKLUSTRE

The markets opened on a flat but positive note, after the shocking fall on Thursday and touched their intraday high within the first half an hour of the trading session, and continued to trade with a positive bias till the start of the second half of the trading session and with just one and a half hour left for the end of the trading session, the markets nosedived almost vertically and traded in the negative zone till the end of the session, and ultimately both the indices, closed almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 8 and 19 points respectively for the week. The market breadth also turned negative with 676 advances to 810 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity and most of the sectoral indices closed almost flat or marginally negative for the week. On the individual stocks front, HeroMotocorp, TCS & HDFC Bank somehow managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, once again the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 281 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 370 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 39 and 292 crores respectively. Nifty future finally settled at 5240, with 13 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the option side, the PCR marginally increased to 0.98, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.41%. On the Call option side, the 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 call, on the other hand the 5500 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5100 & 5200 calls. On the Put options side, the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800, 5300 & 5000 puts, while the 4900 put added the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the F&O as well as the cash market indicates liquidation of longs in cash as well the options side, along with a corresponding addition of shorts both in the Index future and options side.

On the technical side, Nifty has closed below, the crucial level of 5250 for the second consecutive session, which has led to addition of shorts on the derivatives side, and the technical indicators on the daily as well as the weekly charts have also turned negative, making it difficult for the markets to stage a comeback. The direction of the market in the next week will be mainly guided by the corporate results of the big wigs along with policy decisions to be taken by the government, post the presidential elections. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5257 & 5287 on the upside, and 5206, 5183 & 5155 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rallied on Friday, to notch its third consecutive weekly gain after a narrowing trade deficit, helped ease concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook, while signs of foreign flows also helped. The rupee finally settled at 55.14, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.40 for the week.

On the international market front, the Asian markets have closed almost flat for the week, while the European and the U.S. markets have closed on a very firm note. On the energy futures side, both the Brent and WTI crude futures have closed up, on a very strong note at 102.40 & 87.10 $/bbl respectively for the week, while the Natural gas future has closed almost flat at 2.87 $/MMBtu for the week.

GLOOMY

Once again the benchmark indices opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers as well as worst than expected results from the IT bellwether Infosys, made a perfect setting for a bad start for the markets and to make things worse the IIP data didn’t help either and the markets corrected severely, and touched their intraday lows at the start of the second half of the trading session, from that point, the markets tried to recover some of their losses, but in vain and ultimately both the Indices closed near their day’s low. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 71 and 257 points respectively for the day. The market breadth was extremely negative with 460 advances to 1001 declines. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Banking and Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, ONGC, HeroMotocorp, Gail & BPCL managed to outperform the markets for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 269 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of a massive 538 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the scenario was worst, with FIIs turning net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of 416 and 480 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5251, with 16 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the options side, the PCR fell to 0.97, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 1.75%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200, 5400 & 5100 calls, on the other hand the 5600 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5100 call. On the Put option side, the 5400 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200, 5300 & 4700 puts, while the 4900 put added the maximum open interest followed the 5000 put. The activity in the cash and the F&O space, indicates liquidation of cash positions, as well as addition of short positions on the options side, to take benefit of the sudden fall in the domestic markets along with the gloomy situation in the international markets.

On the technical side, the 5250 level, which was till yesterday thought of as a intermediate support, was taken out very easily and Nifty even tried to breach the 5200 level and finally closed below the 5250 mark with fall in volumes. Overnight the situation has turned from comfortable to cautious, well this is how the markets behave, expect the unexpected. Well the only ray of hope seems to be the sustained buying by the FIIs in the spot market. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5270, 5283 and 5304 on the upside and 5214, 5180 & 5146 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee fell once again as local stocks were plumelled, while risk currencies such as the euro were hit by intensifying worries about the global economy. The rupee finally settled at 55.93, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 56.03 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a very negative note, and the U.S. markets are also trading on negative note, even after fall in the jobless claims was overshadowed by increasing concerns about global economic growth and corporate earnings. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with marginal gains at 101.02 & 85.87 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up by 1.26% at 2.88 $/MMBtu after a fall in the U.S. natural gas inventories.

CONSOLIDATION

The markets opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers and continued to trade with a strong negative bias and gradually weakened with the progressing session, but the situation turned worse, at the start of second half of the trading session, when the markets started falling almost vertically and touched their intraday lows within the next one hour of the trade, from that point onwards the markets tried to recover some of their losses, but ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 39 and 129 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative, with 546 advances to 942 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Energy, Auto & Banking sectors. On the individual stocks front, only LT & Kotak Bank managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a mere 84 crores while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 357 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in both the Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 151 and 422 crores respectively. The Nifty future finally settled at 5323, with 17 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate fall in open interest. On the options side, the PCR marginally increased to 1.17, along with a increase in the India VIX by 3.14%. On the Call options side, the 5500 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5200 calls, while the 5400 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 call. On the Put options side, the 4900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5200 puts, while the 5100 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000 and 4800 puts. The activity in the cash as well as the F&O space indicates liquidation of longs in the Index futures as well as the cash positions ahead of the IIP figures to be declared tomorrow.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to hold on to the critical level of 5300 and closed, with decreasing volumes. The Nifty is trying to consolidate around the 5250 level since the phenomenal rise on the 29^th of the last month, and it has maintained this level since the last seven trading sessions. It seems to be a prelude for the next higher move, provided there are no major setbacks at the micro and macro levels of the economy. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5328, 5350 and 5364 on the upside, and 5292, 5278 & 5260 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell on the back of tracking weaker global assets such as the Euro, but large dollar sales by custodian banks helped, support the domestic currency. The rupee finally settled at 55.91, while the near month USD-INR future finally settled at 55.65 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed almost flat, while the U.S. markets are trading on a mixed note, amid concerns on the earnings front and anticipation of further stimulus measures ahead of the minutes of last month’s Federal Reserve meet on the other hand there has been a marginal improvement in the trade data. On the energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude futures are trading with considerable gains at 99.95 and 85.97 $/bbl respectively after the data showed a unexpected fall in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories, while the Natural gas future is also trading on a firm note at 2.79 $/MMBtu.

ECSTATIC

The markets opened on a positive note, and continued to trade the same way, but after the initial two hours of the trading session the markets gained strength, and the real shot in the arm came after the European markets opened and from this point onwards, it was a almost vertical rise. Ultimately both the indices closed near the highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed near their four month highs, up by 70 & 226 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely positive with 974 advances to 503 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking, Midcap and Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, there were quite a few, like Axis Bank, JP Associate, Rel Infra, PNB & Bank of Baroda, which managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 607 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 488 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs sold Index futures worth 207 crores, and brought Stock futures worth 91 crores. Nifty future settled at 5358, with 13 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR increased to 1.15, along with a fall in the India VIX by 4.75%. On the Call options side, the 5600 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 & 5400 calls, on the other hand the 5300 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5200 call. On the Put options side, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5200 & 5000 puts. The activity in the F&O as well as the cash market indicates fresh buying along with addition of fresh longs, further strengthening the uptrend, which had taken a pause for the last two sessions.

On the technical side, Nifty reached very close to yet another milestone of 5350, and once again managed to close above the 5300 mark, with increase in volumes, indicating strength of the uptrend. With the resumption of the uptrend once again, the levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5367, 5389 & 5410 on the upside and 5303, 5261 & 5245 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its four-day losing streak buoyed by strong gains in local stocks and dollar sales by exporters. The rupee closed up, nearly by 1 percent at 55.39 for the day, while the USD-INR future finally settled at 55.57 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed in the red, while the European markets have closed in the green, while the U.S. market are trading in the red as concerns over technology earnings overshadowed the optimism over the steps taken by the European officials to protect the Spanish banks. On the energy futures front, both Brent and WTI crude futures are trading down by 1.27 and 0.83% at 99.03 & 85.28 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading down by 2.98 % at 2.79 $/MMBtu.

ALARMING

The markets opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers and continued to trade with a strong negative bias, throughout the session and ultimately touched their lowest point of the day at the start of the second half of the trading session, the markets could hardly recover, any of their losses and ultimately both the indices closed on a very negative note. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 42 and 129 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 442 advances to 1047 declines. On the sectoral front, the Midcap sector was the biggest looser, followed by the Banking and the Pharma sectors. On the individual stocks front, only DLF & TCS manage to outperform the markets for the day. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 253 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 288 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs brought Index futures, worth 65 crores and sold Stock futures worth 308 crores. Nifty future closed at 5279, with just 4 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest, for the second consecutive session. On the Options side the PCR marginally fell to 0.98, along with a rise in the India VIX by 3.77%. On the Call options side, the 5300 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5200 calls, while the 5600 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 call. On the Put options side, the 4900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4700, 4800, 5500 & 5400 puts, while the 5200 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5100 put. The entire activity in the cash and F&O space indicates unwinding of longs particularly on DII side, while the FIIs are still long in the cash as well as futures side.

On the technical side, Nifty finally broke the 5300 level after three consecutive sessions, with slight decrease in volumes, but still managed to close above its intraday support of 5255. Although two consecutive falls do not suggest a downtrend, but sustained unwinding of longs for one more session may change the market trend very fast. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5298 & 5321 on the upside, and 5254, 5233 & 5210 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell for the fourth straight session and finally settled at a 1 week low of 55.92, while the USD-INR future settled at 56.13 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red, while the U.S. markets are also trading with losses, after a rally in Spanish bond yields above 7%, intensified concern about Europe’s crisis. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and the WTI crude futures are trading with considerable gains at 100.41 & 86.07 $/bbl respectively, and the Natural gas future is also trading up by 3.08 % at 2.86 $/MMBtu.

SHAKY

The markets opened on a flat note and continued to trade with a strong negative bias throughout the day and ultimately both the Indices closed in the negative zone. The Nifty and the Sensex, closed down by 10 and 18 points respectively, for the week. The overall market breadth was extremely negative with 597 advances to 913 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, but still the FMCG sector managed to close with the biggest gain, while the Midcap and the IT sector suffered the maximum losses. On the individual stocks front, Icici Bank, M&M, and Hinduilver, managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, still the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 429 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 203 crores.

On the Derivatives side the FIIs were net sellers, both in the Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 330 and 187 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at closed at 5327, with just 10 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate fall in open interest. On the option side, the PCR fell to 1.00, along with a increase in the India VIX by 1.69%. On the Call options side, the 5500 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5300 calls, while the 5400 & 5200 calls lost the maximum open interest. On the Put option side, the 5100 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200, 4900 & 5000 puts, while the 4700 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4600 put. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates some level of profit booking after five consecutive sessions of gains.

On, the technical side, Nifty managed to close in the sweet spot, above the 5300 level for the third consecutive session with a mild decrease in volumes. Nifty has managed to close above most of its short and long term exponential moving averages and the indicators on the daily and weekly charts are still in the buy mode, indicating further strength in the market. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5333, 5349 & 5388 on the upside, and 5294, 5271 & 5255 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell for a third straight session, and closed at the lowest level for the week at 55.42, while the USD-INR future settled at 55.72 for the week. The rupee has been mainly falling after the monetary easing by central banks of Eurozone, Britain and China sparked worries about global economic growth.

On the international markets front, the Asian, European and the U.S. markets closed deep in the red, for the week and the dollar climbed to the highest level since September, against the Euro as investors sought refuge after U.S. job growth fell short of forecasts and the European Central Bank said the region’s economy still faces risks. The effect was clearly visible on the commodities side with both the precious metals and energy futures closing deep in the red, for the week. On the precious metals side Gold closed down by 1.90% at 1578.90 $/t.oz, while Silver closed down by 2.72% at 26.92 $/t.oz. On the energy futures side, both the Brent and the WTI crude futures closed 2.49 & 3.18% at 98.19 & 84.45 $/bbl for the week, while the Natural gas future closed down by 5.74% at 2.77 $/MMBtu for the week.

LISTLESS

The markets opened on a negative note, and continued to trade in the same zone for the next two and half hours of the trading session, but slowly recovered and continued to trade sideways till the start of the second half of the trading session and with just half an hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets touched their intraday highs and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat near the day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 25 and 76 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely positive, with 1102 advances to 416 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking & Midcap sectors. On the individual stocks front, IDFC, Cipla, ICICI bank and Maruti were the few stocks which managed to outperform the market. On the institutional front, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 429 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 203 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs brought Index futures worth 124 crores and sold Stock futures worth 355 crores. Nifty future closed at 5344, with 17 points premium to the spot along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the options side the PCR increased to 1.12, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.44%. On the Call options side, the 5500 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5400 calls, while the 5300 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 4700 & 5200 calls. On the Put options side, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200, 4900 & 4800 puts, while the 4800 put lost the maximum open interest. The activity in the F&O space, indicates addition of fresh longs, along with the put writing at higher levels for the fifth consecutive session.

On the technical side, once again Nifty closed comfortably above the 5300 level, along with increase in volumes. On the daily charts, Nifty is about to enter the overbrought zone, but on the weekly charts there is a lot of scope for Nifty to increase, which has been validated by the buy figures of the FIIs, both in the cash and futures market. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5344, 5362 & 5389 on the upside and 5299, 5271 & 5254 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell for a second straight session, after traders expected a interest rate cut from the ECB, but the surprise interest rate cut announced by China, helped the rupee recover some of its losses and it finally settled at 54.94, while the USD-INR future settled at 55.17 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a mixed note, while the U.S. markets are trading on a dull note on the back of disappointment over the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame the debt crisis overshadowed improving American unemployment data. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude future is trading up by 1.30% at 101.09 $/bbl while the WTI crude future is trading down by 0.5% at 87.26 $/bbl after data showed a more than expected fall in the U.S. crude oil inventories and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 0.41% at 2.91 $/MMBtu.

LACKLUSTER

The markets opened on a firm note, but subsequently lost their momentum till the end of the first half of the trading session, and continued to trade in the negative zone for the next two hours, but ultimately recovered most of their losses, to close almost flat till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 15 and 37 points respectively. The market breadth was positive with 956 advances to 525 declines. On the sectoral front, the Metal sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking and the Midcap sectors. On the individual stocks front, Sterlite Industries, Sesa Goa, Jindal Steel, JP Associates & Bharti Airtel, managed to outperform the markets. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 239 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 162 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net buyers, both in the Index and Stock futures to the tune of 249 & 67 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5323, with 21 points premium to the spot along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR marginally increased to 1.07, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.56%. On the Call options side, the 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5500 calls, while on the Put option side, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5200 & 5000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates addition of fresh longs for the fourth consecutive session and the markets are slowly consolidating at these levels, before making the next up-move.

On the technical side, Nifty closed above yet another milestone of 5300, with increase in volumes, and as suggested yesterday, the markets consolidation is taking place, in the absence of any major domestic and international news and all the technical indicators are also supportive at these levels, indicating there may be further upside left in the market. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5322, 5341 & 5366 on the upside and 5278, 5253 & 5234 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its four day rally and settled at 54.48, while the USD-INR future settled at 54.79 for the day.

On the international market front, the Asian markets have closed almost flat, while the European markets have closed in the red. The major international news to watch out for this week,  will be the ECB meet on Thursday and the U.S. monthly job reports on Friday. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and the WTI crude futures are trading down by 0.93 and 0.68% at 99.75 and 87.06 $/bbl respectively, but the Natural gas future is trading up by 1.22% at 2.93 $/MMBtu

SILVER LINING

The markets opened on a strong note, and touched their intraday highs within the first fifteen minutes of the trade, but gradually lost their momentum over the next one hour and continued to trade range bound till the second half of the trading session and with just half an hour left for the end of the day's session, the markets entered the negative zone and touched their intraday lows, but recovered most of their losses till the end of the session and closed almost flat, for the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 9 and 27 points respectively. The market breadth was positive with 913 advances to 582 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest looser, followed by the IT sector, while the Banking and the Midcap sector ended with modest gains.On the individual stocks front, DLF, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, PNB and HDFC managed to outperform the markets today. On the institutional side, once again the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 590 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 544 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs brought Index futures worth 416 crores and sold Stock futures worth 152 crores. Nifty future closed at 5306, with 18 points premium to the spot, along with a moderate increase in open interest. On the Options side, the PCR marginally fell to 1.04, along with a moderate fall in the India VIX by 2.37%. On the Call options side, the 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 and 5300 calls. On the Put options side, the 4900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 and 5200 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates fresh longs being formed on the futures and options front, which has been validated by the strong buy figures by the FIIs in the last three sessions, while the open interest buildup on the call and put options side indicates the lower range for the markets between 4900 - 5000 and the upper range at 5400.

On the technical side, Nifty has managed to close above the 5200 mark comfortably, for the third consecutive session along with increase in volumes, which is a bullish indicator and the markets have a fair chance, to touch new highs  from these levels. Going forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5314, 5341 & 5366 on the upside and 5262, 5227 & 5210 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose for the fourth straight session, as foreign banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of their offshore clients looking to invest in the domestic share market and the rupee finally closed at 54.36, while the USD-INR future settled at 54.78 for the day.

On the International market front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a firm note, while the U.S. markets have closed early today, on a firm note, ahead of the independence day holiday tomorrow. The U.S. markets have closed in the positive on the back of better than estimated factory orders data. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading up by 3.45 & 4.66% at 100.64 and 87.65 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up 1.67% at 2.87 $/MMBtu.

WAIT AND WATCH

The markets opened on a flat note, and continued to trade in the negative zone till the start of the second half of the trading session, when the markets tried to pullback and with just one hour left for the end of the day's session, the markets touched their intraday highs, but gave up all their gains and ended almost flat. The Nifty closed absolutely flat with 0.3 points down, while the Sensex closed down by just 31 points. The market breadth was positive with, 991 advances to  501 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest looser, while most of the sectors closed marginally in the positive or negative zone. On the individual stocks front, ACC, DLF, Grasim & HDFC bank were among the few stocks, which managed to outperform the market. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 591 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 447 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, there was hardly any activity, with FIIs turning net sellers in both Index and Stock futures to the tune of merely, 42 and 52 crores respectively. Nifty future closed at 5296, with 17 points premium to the spot, along with a modest increase in open interest. On the options side the PCR fell to 1.05, along with a marginal decline in the India VIX by 0.37%. On the Call options side, the 5500 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5400 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5200 put added the maximum open interest followed by the 5100 & 4800 puts.The entire activity in the F&O space, indicates addition of fresh longs and at the same time put writing at higher levels, but the high sell figures from the DIIs negated the strong buy figures of the FIIs, which was clearly reflected in the market breadth, which deteriorated considerably till the end of the season, indicating the nervousness among the domestic participants, using every opportunity to exit the market.

On the technical side, Nifty has managed to close in the comfort zone, above most of its short and long term moving averages, with slight increase in volumes. It remains to be seen, whether Nifty will hold on to this level tomorrow amid mixed news flow from the domestic as well as the international front. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5299, 5320 & 5338 on the upside and 5218 & 5170 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee once again appreciated considerably on the back of dollar sales by investors, following some clarity on certain taxation rules. The rupee finally settled at 55.43, and the USD-INR future settled at 55.71 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a firm note, but the U.S. markets are trading on a negative note on the back of manufacturing data which showed a unexpected fall for the first time in three years. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading down by 1.81 and 2.67% at 96.03 & 82.70 $/bbl respectively while the Natural gas future is also trading down by 1.68% at 2.77 $/MMBtu.

BLOW OUT

What a explosive start, to the new series. It was a dream comeback for the market, which nobody would have thought in their wildest dreams, after the gloom surrounding the markets for the last three months. It was like the eagerly awaited monsoon rains, for the scorched markets. The markets opened with a gap up, on the back of clarity and assurance from the government regarding the rethinking on the draconian provisions of GAAR and secondly the optimistic vision of European Union Summit, which brought the much needed confidence, back in the markets. The markets gained strength with every passing hour and ultimately both the indices closed near their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex, closed up 130 & 439 points respectively. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the FMCG, Midcap, Energy & Pharma sectors. On the individual stocks front, there were quite a few performers, but Jindal Steel, Tata power, Sterlite, Bhel, Maruti & Hindalco were the star performers for the day. On the institutional side, the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a whooping 3047 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 251 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs brought Index futures worth 1568 crores and sold Stock futures worth 841 crores. Nifty future closed at 5297, with 18 points premium to the spot, along with a massive addition of open interest. On the options side PCR fell to 1.12, along with fall in the India VIX by 7.47%. On the Call options side, the 5400 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 & 5600 calls, on the other hand, the 5200 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100 and 4900 calls. On the Put option side, the 5200 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 4800, 5300 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates addition of fresh longs in the index futures and call options along with put writing at higher levels, which has been validated by the massive buy figures  by the FIIs.

On the technical side, the massive rise in Nifty, has turned the market sentiment from a cautious mode to a strongly buoyant mode. Since Nifty has closed over most of its short and long term moving averages and a breakout seems to have happened on the daily and weekly charts along with the technical indicators  which are also supporting the markets, it remains to seen over the next two sessions, whether the markets will maintain the momentum or Friday's move will be  just a one off move. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 5313, 5348 & 5410 on the upside and 5216, 5154 & 5133 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee made a remarkable pullback and the USD-INR future finally settled at 56.05 for the week.

On the international market front, the Asian, European and the U.S. markets had the same story to tell, " winners all the way". On the energy futures front, the story was the same with both Brent and WTI crude futures closing up by 7.05% and 9.36% at 97.80 & 84.96 $/bbl respectively for the week, even Natural gas future closed up by 3.75% at 2.82 $/MMBtu for the week.