BREAKOUT

The markets opened with a gap up on Tuesday, surprising everyone, and the  exceptionally high deficit figures were negated after Moodys announced that it would retain India’s investment grade rating and the markets reacted with unexpected optimism . The markets gained strength with every passing hour and ultimately closed near their day’s high till the end of the session, marking the end of a short term consolidation period. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 92 & 305 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely positive with 1002 advances to 512 declines. On the sectoral front, there was across the sector buying, but the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking, IT, Energy, Pharma & Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, Bharti Airtel, JP Associate, BPCL, HDFC & Rel Infra were the top five Nifty gainers, while Power Grid, NTPC & ONGC were the top three Nifty losers for the day. On the Institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of a massive 1083 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 209 crores.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 1342 & 392 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 140 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of mere 68 crores. Nifty December future settled at 5769, with a massive 42 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable addition of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.11 along with a fall in the India VIX by 4.84%. On the December Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5800 calls, while the 5700 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5600 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5600 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the cash market indicates across the sector buying, with special focus on a few sectors, while in the F&O space the data suggests creation of massive long positions in the December Index as well as Stocks futures and options.

On the technical side, Nifty conquered the 5700 milestone after eleven trading sessions with marginal increase in volumes. The technical indicators on the daily as well as weekly charts are also supportive of the current upsurge. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5760 & 5781 on the upside and 5650, 5634 & 5618 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee snapped its five day losing streak on Tuesday, as custodian banks sols dollars on the back of sharp gains in the domestic market, but persistent dollar demand from the oil refiners to meet the month end requirements capped the gains. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 55.45 on Tuesday, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.72 for the day.

On the International markets front the Asian markets have closed in the red, while the European markets have closed almost flat and the U.S. markets after erasing earlier losses are trading almost flat after Speaker of the house said he is optimistic that lawmakers engaged in budget talks can avert the crisis sooner than later. On the Energy future’s front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by 0.91  1.07% at 108.88 & 86.25 $/bbl after a less the expected fall in the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories, while the Natural Gas future is also trading down by 3.35% at 3.76 $MMBtu, after the data showed a more than expected rise in the weekly Natural Gas inventories.

DILEMMA

The benchmark indices opened on a positive note and touched their intraday highs within the first twenty minutes of the trade, and just when everything seemed fine, the markets started giving up all their gains and ultimately entered the negative zone for a brief period, at the end of the first half of the trading session but surprisingly the market recovered from this point onwards and came striking close to breaching the intraday highs, but once again could not hold on to  their gains and ended up almost flat till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 9 and 30 points respectively. The market breadth was surprisingly positive with 869 advances to 622 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the IT and Infra sectors, while the Banking sector was the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, IDFC, Wipro, Tata Steel, Hindalco & Infosys were the top five Nifty gainers, while M&M, BPCL, BHEL, Ultratech Cement & Sun Pharma were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 163 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 196 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of 162 crores and net sellers in Index options to the tune of 580 crores. The FIIs were net sellers in Stock futures and Options to the tune of 27 & 12 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5643 with just 7 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.03, along with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 0.07%. On the Call and Put Options side, the entire action has shifted to the new series, as the position are being rolled over to the new series. The entire activity in the Cash market was again sector specific and as usual DIIs continued booking profits.

On the technical side, once again Nifty has managed to close above the 5600 level, but further upmove will largely depend on the story unfolding in the domestic as well as the international arena. The political logjam showing no signs of resolution and the global headwinds may deter the market participants to take fresh positions in the market. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5648 & 5661 on the upside and 5622 ,5605 & 5596 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee slid for the fifth day and hit its lowest level in more than two and a half months weighed down by heavy dollar buying by the oil refiners. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 55.73, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 56.69 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on a negative note and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses as the lawmakers prepare to debate the so called fiscal cliff and euro area finance ministers discussed Greek aid. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by 0.37 & 0.52% at 110.97 & 87.81 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading down by 4.15% at 3.86 $/MMBtu

LACKLUSTRE

The markets opened on a flat note, and continued to trade with a negative bias till the end of the first half of the trading session, but from this point the markets started falling and with the more than an hour left for the end of the day’s session the markets touched their intraday lows but from this point onwards the markets made up an almost V shaped recovery but ultimately ended up almost flat for the week. The market breadth also ended up extremely weak with 647 advances to 841 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, with most of the sectors ending up marginally positive or negative. On the individual stocks front, Asian Paint, Bhel, HCL Tech, Hero Motocorp & Hind Unilever were the top five Nifty gainers, while Ranbaxy, NTPC, Gail, Grasim & Cipla were the top five Nifty losers of the day. On the institutional side FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 366 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 184 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of mere 14 crores and net sellers in Index Options to the tune of 187 crores, while they were net sellers in both Stock futures and Options to the tune of 99 and 42 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5633, with just 6 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.98, along with a fall in the India VIX by 1.54%. On the Call options side, except the 5700 call, which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 5000 to 6000 calls, on the Put options side, the story was the same, where there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was restricted to stock specific level, while in the F&O side, the entire action is shifting to the new series.

On the technical side, it was a listless session, but Nifty managed to close above the 5600 level for the third consecutive session on very low volumes. Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 5570 to 5640 for the last five sessions and as long as it trades above the 5600 level, it is safe to assume that the way the global markets are supportive, Nifty may well be on its way up. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5645 & 5664 on the upside and 5600, 5574 and 5555 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its two month lows on Friday, weighed down by persistent dollar buying by all companies. The partially convertible Rupee closed at 55.53, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.58 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian, European & U.S. markets have all closed on a very positive note. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures have closed up by 0.75 & 1.03% at 111.38 and 88.28 $/bbl respectively while the Natural Gas future closed down by 0.05% at 3.90 $/MMBtu.

ASCENT

The benchmark indices opened on a mildly positive note, but started losing their gains and ultimately touched their intraday lows at the start of the second half of the trading but to everyone’s surprise the markets made a almost V shaped recovery from this point onwards and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session both the indices made their intraday highs, but could not sustain their momentum and lost most of their gains and closed almost flat, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 13 & 57 points respectively. The market breadth however closed marginally positive with 786 advances to 704 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the IT & Banking sectors. On the individual stocks front, Grasim, State bank of India, Axis Bank, LT & HCL Tech were the top five Nifty gainers  while Tata Motors, Ultratech Cement, Siemens, ICICI Bank & Ranbaxy were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, once again there was very little participation, where FIIs were net buyers to the tune of mere 115 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 164 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the story was the same, where FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of mere 36 crores and net buyers in Index options to the tune of 78 crores on the other hand they were net sellers in Stock futures and options, to the tune of 61 & 18 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5640 with 12 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.0, along with a fall in the India VIX by 3.56%. On the Call option side, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5500 puts, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 puts. The entire activity in the Cash market was restricted to sector specific buying, while in the F&O side, profit booking continued in the Index future and Call options along with Put writing at higher levels, adding credence to the short upmove.

On the technical side, although movement was very rangebound today, Nifty has held on convincingly above the 5600 level, for the second consecutive session. The F&O data along with the positive global indicators, make a perfect case for a upmove from this level. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5645, 5661 & 5679 on the upside and 5609, 5591 & 5574 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell  for a third straight session as persistent dollar buying by oil refiners and absence of major dollar inflows due to a holiday in the United States, hurt the local currency. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 55.21, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.25 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a very strong note, while the European markets rallied for the fourth day and the Euro strengthened today as Greek bonds rose for the 10^th day as the region’s leaders prepared to hold budget talks. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading down by 0.4% at 110.41 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future is trading up by 0.48% at 87.17 $/bbl, and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 2.41% at 3.91 $/MMBtu.

AFFIRMATIVE

The markets opened on a very quite note and traded with a negative bias for the initial one hour of the trading session, but from that point onwards, the markets made a remarkable comeback and gained strength as the session progressed and ultimately both the indices touched their intraday highs till the end of the session and closed very near to their day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 43 & 131 points respectively. The market breadth was however evenly balanced with 769 advances to 729 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer followed by the Banking, Pharma & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Tata Power & ICICI Bank were the top five Nifty gainers while NTPC, Bhel, Power Grid, Cairn & Lupin were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side there was very little participation, with FIIs turning net buyers to the tune of 183 crores and DIIs turning net sellers to the tune of 133 crores in the cash markets.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 97 crores and net buyers in Index options to the tune of 150 crores, on the other hand they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 257 crores. Nifty future settled at 5622, with just 7 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, PCR increased to 1.05, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.21%. On the Call Options side, except the 5800 call which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5400 & 5200 puts. The entire activity in Cash as market indicates stock and sector specific buying , while in the F&O space, there was unwinding of shorts on the Call options side accompanied by corresponding Put writing at lower levels, indicating the change in sentiment.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above the 5600 mark albeit on low volumes, paving the way for a short term bonceback that might be in the offing. Nifty must sustain at this level, at least for the next few sessions in order to make a meaningful comeback. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5646 & 5660 on the upside and 5563 , 5539 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee retreated from its two month low, hit early in the day and closed little changed as custodian banks stepped in to sell the dollar following late gains in the domestic share market. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 55.11, while the near month USD-INR future closed at 55.15 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a positive note, while the European markets have closed almost flat, and the U.S. markets are trading almost flat, after yesterday’s gains as investors watch economic data while European finance ministers failed to agree on a debt-reduction package for Greece. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading almost flat at 109.97 & 86.63 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up by 0.82% at 3.86 $/MMBtu.

WAIT AND WATCH

The benchmark indices opened on mildly positive note, but after the initial half an hour of the trade, the market breadth started worsening and the markets gradually gave up all their gains and eventually entered the negative zone in the second half of the trading session and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets touched made their intraday lows but ultimately both the indices covered up all their losses till the end of the session and closed almost flat. The market breadth was extremely negative with 430 advances to 1066 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, with almost all the sectors closing marginally in the negative. On the individual stocks front, M&M, HDFC, PowerGrid, IDFC & Tata Power were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while JP Associate, DLF, Rel Infra, Ambuja Cement & PNB were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, there was very little participation with FIIs turning net buyers to the tune of mere 143 crores while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of just 12 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 276 & 271 crores respectively, and they were also net buyers in Stock futures and Options to the tune of 271 & 23 crores respectively. On the options side PCR stood at 0.93, along with a fall in the India VIX by 5.22%. Nifty future settled at 5584 with just 13 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Call options side, the 5800 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700, 5500 & 5900 calls. On the Put options side, the 5800 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5600 puts, on the other hand the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 and 5300 puts. The entire activity in the cash markets indicates stock specific buying, while in the F&O space profit booking continued in Nifty futures, as well as some short positions were squared on the higher side of the market in the Call options side along with put writing on at lower levels indicate change in market sentiment.

On the technical side, Nifty could not close above the 5600 mark for the third consecutive session, but managed to hold on to the crucial support of 5569 and all it needs is a few more sessions at these levels in order to consolidate and reverse the trend. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5607, 5643 and 5650 on the upside and 5541, 5524 & 5507 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee ended slightly weaker today, hurt by the weakness in the domestic shares and demand for dollars from the oil companies. The partially convertible Rupee, finally closed at 55.09, while the  near month USD-INR future settled at 55.13 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note while the European markets have ended on a positive note and the U.S. markets are trading almost flat. On the energy futures front, both  the Brent and WTI crude are trading down by 2.09 & 3.09 % at 109.26 and 86.52 $/bbl respectively while the Natural Gas future is trading up by 2.25 % at 3.80 $/MMBtu.

SILVER LINING

The markets opened on a very quite note, inspite of positive cues from the Asian markets, and started drifting downwards after the initial half an hour of the trade and traded with a strong negative bias throughout the day and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat. The Nifty closed down by 3 points while the Sensex closed up by 30 points. The market breadth was extremely negative with 450 advances to 1051 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest and sole gainer for the day, while there was hardly any activity in the rest of the sectors, which closed marginally in the negative. On the institutional side there was no participation from the FIIs side, where they were net sellers to the tune of just 2 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 503 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the story was the same where the FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options, to the tune of mere 55 & 37 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of just 84 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 10 crores. Nifty future settled at 5589 with just 18 points premium to the spot along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.01, along with an increase in the India VIX by 2.84%. On the Call options side the 5600 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5400 calls, on the other hand the 5900 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000 & 5800 calls. On the Put options side, the 5600 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 5700 puts, while the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 put. The entire activity in the cash market showed active participation by the DIIs, where they continued with their profit booking  spree, while in the F&O markets some positive signs emerged today, where there was profit booking in the Index futures side, along with addition of some long positions on the call options side and put writing at lower levels of the markets, indicating a short term technical bounceback is possible.

On the technical side, although Nifty breached the crucial level of 5569 on a intraday basis, but somehow managed to close above it on very low volumes. Although it was a lacklustre session, the underlying breadth was extremely negative and markets are still not out of the woods, but as mentioned yesterday any positive event may change the overall sentiment in a day and the Index may reverse all the losses. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5593, 5615 & 5648 on the upside and 5549, 5531 & 5506 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rebounded today on the back of dollar sales from the custodian banks but dollar demand from oil firms capped the gains. The partially convertible Rupee closed at 55.06 while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.11 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian and European markets have closed on a strongly positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading on a strong note amid better than forecast housing data and confidence expressed by the U.S. president on a budget agreement with the Congress. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up 2.40 & 2.83% at 111.58 and 89.39 $/bbl respectively while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 0.78% at 3.76 $/MMBtu.

GLOOM

Once again the markets opened on a very flat note, and traded with a positive bias throughout the trading session, but with just one hour left for the end of the trading session, the markets fell almost vertically and ultimately both the indices closed down by 1.0% at their lowest point of the day. The market breadth turned extremely negative with 483 advances to 1021 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser followed by the Banking, Auto, Energy & Media sectors, while the IT sector was the sole sector which managed to stay in the green. On the individual stocks front, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Dr. Reddy, ONGC & Jindal Steel were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while IDFC, DLF, PNB, Tata Motors, Icici Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 510 crores while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 375 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 726 crores and net buyers in Index options to the tune of a massive 1489 crores. On the other hand FIIs were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 278 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 120 crores. Nifty future settled at 5580 with just 6 points premium to the spot along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR fell to 0.97, along with an increase in the volatility index by 4.44%. On the Call options side, the 5500 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5600 calls, on the other hand 6000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call. On the Put option side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 5200 puts, while the 5600 put lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5700 & 5800 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O markets indicates profit booking in Index futures along with addition of short positions in the Call as well as Put options side.

On the technical side, Nifty has breached the crucial support of 5571 on low volumes, but the across the sector selling makes it more critical. All the technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts have also turned negative, making the overall trend negative and if the global headwinds and macroeconomic factors do not spring a positive surprise, the markets may see some major downside in the days to come. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5629 & 5654 on the upside and 5538, 5505 & 5447 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its two month low, extending its losing streak to a third week, as investors remained cautious on risk assets ahead of a key Eurogroup meeting and worries over the U.S. fiscal cliff. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 55.16 while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.32 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a mixed note, while the European markets closed deep in the red, and the U.S markets rallied on the last trading day of the week after the house speaker said budget talks with Obama were constructive. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed up by 0.87 & 1.22% at 108.95 & 86.92 $/bbl and the Natural Gas future closed up by 2.35% at 3.79 $/bbl.

INDECISION

The markets opened on a very flat note on Monday but could not build up on the gains and ultimately both the indices closed on a flat note, but the underlying market breadth was extremely negative, but Tuesday was altogether different day, when the markets opened on a positive note but could not hold on to their gains and closed at their lowest point of the day.  The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 17 & 51 points respectively; however the market breadth was positive with 1011 advances to 430 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser followed by the IT sector while the rest of the sectors closed on a marginally positive note. On the individual stock front, Bharti Airtel, Siemens, Maruti, Cipla & Tata power were the top five Nifty stocks which managed to stay in the green, while JP Associate, Ultratech Cement, DLF, Dr. Reddy & Grasim were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side there was hardly any participation where the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 18 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 19 crores.

On the derivatives side FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and options to the tune of 61 and 446 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 19 crores and net sellers in stock options to the tune of 31 crores. Nifty future settled at 5681 with just 14 points premium to the spot along with a marginal loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.93 along with a marginal rise in the India VIX by 0.34%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5700 & 5600 calls while the 6000 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5900 call. On the Put options side, the 5500 & 5400 puts added the maximum open interest, while the 5800 put lost the maximum open interest.  The entire activity in the cash as well as F&O markets indicates profit booking along with some call writing at higher levels to cash in on the sudden fall in the markets.

On the technical side Nifty tested another support of 5661 on very low volumes, and most of the technical indicators are in sell mode , and with the strong global headwinds, Nifty may continue to trade like this for few more sessions. The levels watch out for Nifty will be 5690, 5713 on the upside and 5652, 5637 & 5613 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its lowest level in two months on Monday after data showing a record trade deficit and contraction in factory output stoked fears about economic growth at a time of continued high inflation. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 54.88 while the near month USD-INR future settled at 55.11 for the day.

On the international markets front, today the Asian markets have closed on a positive note, while the European markets have closed deep in the red and the and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 1.08 & 0.98 % at 108.49 & 86.69 $/bbl respectively, and the Natural Gas future is also trading up by 1.47% at 3.79 $/MMBtu.

UNEASY

The markets opened on a very quite note, and what was expected to be a lackluster session turned out to be a extremely volatile session, after trading almost flat for the first one hour of the trading session the markets started falling almost vertically and touched their intraday lows within the next three hours of the trading session and could not recover till the end of the session and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 53 and 163 points respectively. The market breadth also ended on an extremely negative note with 486 advances to 1011 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Energy, IT, Metal & FMCG sectors. On the Individual stocks front, Cairn, Power Grid, Bajaj Auto, Ultratech Cement, & Maruti were the top five Nifty stocks which managed to close in the positive, while State Bank of India, Tata Steel, ONGC, IDFC & Sesa Goa were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 204 and 154 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 284 crores and net buyers in index options to the tune of 423 crores, while they were net sellers in both Stock futures and options, to the tune of 372 & 29 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5721, with 35 points premium to the spot along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the options side PCR increased to 1.05, along with a rise in the India VIX by 1.05%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5600 calls. On the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 put, while the 5700 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 5900 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates profit booking along with call writing at higher levels to hedge positions and profit booking on the higher side in the put options side.

On the technical side, Nifty broke the 5700 mark on falling volumes, but found support at the crucial level of 5684. Although it was a nasty fall, but not convincing enough for a change of trend. I still believe that as long as Nifty holds above the 5659 & 5621 levels, the uptrend may still be intact. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5733 & 5760 on the upside and 5658, 5630 and 5592 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell for a second session on Friday, as the Euro gave up its early gains and local stocks fell after the country’s biggest lender reported earnings below expectations. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.75 for the week, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.82 for the week.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets closed on a very negative note, while the European and the U.S. markets on flat note. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil future closed on a very positive note, up by 2.0 & 1.15% at 109.40 & 86.07 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future closed down by 2.91% at 3.50 $/MMBtu.

EDGY

The markets opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers, but slowly recovered and traded with a negative bias throughout the entire trading session and ultimately both the indices closed almost flat for the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 21 & 56 points respectively. The market breadth was negative with 662 advances to 854 declines. On the sectoral front, the Energy sector was the biggest loser followed by the Banking, Pharma & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Wipro, Asian Paint & DLF were the top five Nifty gainers while GAIL, LT, Tata Power, Rel Infra & IDFC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, surprisingly both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 261 & 85 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, the FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 392 & 277 crores respectively, and the story was same on the Stock futures and options side, where they were net sellers to the tune of 397 and 53 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5765, with 26 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 0.83, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.0%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5700 & 5900 calls while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5600 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500, 5200 & 5700 puts. The entire activity in the cash market was restricted to stock specific level, while on the F&O side there was some level of profit booking in the Index as well as Stock future & options along with addition of longs on the higher side in call options and corresponding put writing at lower levels.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close above the 5700 mark for the fourth consecutive session denting any prospects of a major downside in spite of major global headwinds, making a valid case to hold on to the long positions. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5757 & 5776 on the upside and 5707, 5687 & 5757 on the lower side. On the currency front, the Rupee fell today, snapping two sessions of gains, as euro zone concerns took centrestage with worries over whether Spain would seek a bailout soon. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 54.36, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.55 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed deep in the red, while the European markets have closed almost flat and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses after a better than expected trade balance data and jobless claims data was negated after a European Union official said a decision on unlocking funds for Greece may not be made until late November. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and Crude oil futures are trading up by 0.26 & 0.88% at 107.09 & 85.13 $/bbl respectively while the Natural Gas future is trading almost flat at 3.58 $/MMBtu.

AFFIRMATIVE

The markets opened on a very quite note, but as soon as the news of favorable outcome from the U.S. hit, the markets made a almost vertical ascent and kept on making new highs with every passing hour and ultimately closed near their highest points of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 36 & 85 points respectively. The market breadth also remained positive with 927 advances to 573 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer for the day, followed by the FMCG & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, JP Associate, Bank of Baroda, PNB, DLF & IDFC were the top five Nifty gainers for the day, while Tata Power, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, Siemens & Reliance were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the Institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 728 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 197 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 122 & 562 crores respectively, while there was hardly any activity in the Stock futures and options side, where the FIIs were net buyers to the tune of mere 55 & 13 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5793, with 33 points premium to the spot along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.94, along with a fall in the India VIX by 4.60%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5200 to 5800 calls. On the Put options side the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5500 & 5900 puts, while the 5200 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5000, 5400 & 5300 puts. The entire activity in the cash markets indicates sector specific buying, while on the F&O side there was some profit booking along with addition of longs on the call options side, while there was active put writing at higher levels.

On the technical, Nifty managed to break and close comfortably above the 5700 mark for the fourth consecutive session making a valid case for a short up-move, only if the global headwinds don’t play spoilsport. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5787 & 5815 on the upside and 5721, 5683 & 5652 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee strengthened for a second straight session as U.S. President Barack Obama’s re-election to a second term, boosted risk assets globally. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 54.20, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.38 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a fairly positive note, while the European markets have closed deep in the red, and the U.S. markets are trading with heavy losses as investor focus returned to the U.S. Tax debate and Europe’s debt crisis, following the re-election of President Barack Obama. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down by 3.35 & 4.01 % at 107.33 & 85.13 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is also trading down by 1.26 % at 3.57 $/MMBtu. 

ANTICIPATION

The markets opened on a very quite note, and traded range-bound for the entire session, except for the last half an hour when the markets made some quick gains and closed near their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 20 and 55 points respectively. The market breadth which was positive throughout the day, ended up marginally positive with 791 advances to 690 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer followed by the Pharma and Energy sectors. On the individual stocks front, Cipla, Asian Paint, Ambuja Cement, ACC & Ranbaxy were the top five Nifty gainers while IDFC, Rel Infra, Maruti, Hindalco & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 175 crores, while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 222 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 155 & 1038 crores respectively and net sellers in Stock futures and options, to the tune of 21 & 193 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5766 with 42 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the options side PCR stood at 0.80, along with a increase in the India VIX by 3.9%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 & 5900 calls, while the 5700 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5600 call. On the Put options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5600 puts, while the 5300 put lost the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the cash markets was again restricted to stock and sector specific, along with profit booking, ahead of the major international event tomorrow, while in the F&O markets there was some addition of long positions in Index futures and call options along with put writing at higher levels, indicating that the market participants are expecting a favorable outcome to tomorrow’s event.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to close once again above the 5700 mark and maintained Friday’s gap up closing for the second consecutive session and tomorrow’s session will decide the markets short term trend. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5738, 5753 & 5775 on the upside and 5701, 5676 & 5669 on the downside.  On the currency front, the Rupee recovered from its one and a half month lows, to close stronger, boosted by corporate dollar sales and a mild recovery in the domestic markets. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 54.43, while the near month USD-INR future closed 54.71 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a positive note and the U.S. market are also trading higher for the second straight day, as American voters go to the polls to pick a U.S. president. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude futures are trading up by 2.27 & 2.67% at 110.19 & 87.95 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading marginally up by 0.21% at 3.56 $/MMBtu.

LISTLESS

The markets opened on a very quite note after yesterday’s gap up close and continued to trade range-bound till the start of the second half of the trading session, and with one and half hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets started falling and touched their intraday lows, but somehow managed to cover the minor losses till the end of the session and ultimately ended up almost flat. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 6.5 & & 7 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 672 advances to 834 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG was the biggest gainer for the day, while the rest of the sectors, ended up marginally in the positive or slightly negative. On the individual stocks front, Kotak Bank, ACC, ITC, Asian Paint & Dr. Reddy were the top five Nifty gainers, while Hindalco, Jindal Steel, Bajaj Auto, JP Associate & Cairn were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 374 crores while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 344 crores in the cash market.

On the Derivatives side, there was little participation in the Index and Stock futures, where FIIs were net buyers in Index futures to the tune of 120 crores and net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 11 crores respectively, while the FIIs were net buyers in Index options to the tune of 308 crores and net sellers in the stock options to the tune of 63 crores. Nifty future settled at 5740, with 36 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.98, along with a massive rise in the India VIX by 7.10%. On the Call options side, except the 6000 call which added the maximum open interest, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5900 calls, while on the Put options side the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500, 5800 & 5600 puts. The entire activity in the cash market indicates sector and stock specific buying, while on the F&O side, it was mere profit booking and positioning of portfolios, just before the major event of U.S. elections tomorrow.

On the technical side, Nifty managed to scrape through and close above the 5700 mark and was able to maintain yesterday’s gap up close with marginal increase in volumes. Although it was a listless session, the market breadth indicated the negative bias. Keeping this in mind, the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5715, 5727 & 5745 on the upside and 5685, 5663 and 5639 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to its lowest level against the dollar in the last one and a half months, tracking a bout of global risk aversion ahead of U.S. elections and a key Greek parliamentary vote on austerity. The partially convertible rupee finally closed at 54.60, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.93 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed in the red, and the U.S. stocks are little changed after last week’s advance as American’s prepare to vote in the Presidential election and amid growing concern that Greece will struggle to win a bailout. On the energy futures front, the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 0.71 & 0.29% at 106.44 & 85.11 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future id trading almost flat at 3.55 $/MMBtu.

TREND CHANGE ??

The markets opened with a gap up, tracking their Asian peers and maintained their momentum throughout the trading session and touched their intraday highs in the second half of the trading session. Ultimately both the indices closed near day’s high. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 53 & 194 points respectively. The market breadth was also positive with 886 advances to 623 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer for the day, followed by the FMCG, IT & Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, GAIL, Bajaj Auto, LT, Lupin & Sesa Goa were the top five Nifty gainers, while Bharti Airtel, Hind Unilever, Jindal Steel, Sun Pharma & BPCL were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the Institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 382 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 298 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index and Stock futures, to the tune of 702 & 253 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5739 with 41 points premium to the spot. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.0 along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.98%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while the 5700 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 5600 call. On the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the futures markets indicates across the sector  buying along with short covering on the call options side and put writing at higher levels.

On the technical side, spot Nifty managed to breach the 5700 on an intraday basis, but ultimately closed below the 5700 mark. Although it was a smart rally, but all of it happened on low volumes, so it will make it tough for Nifty to sustain this level, but again the options data and hefty premium of Nifty futures, suggests the other way around. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5711, 5725 & 5744 on the upside and 5682, 5659 & 5634 on the downside. On the currency front, Rupee snapped its three day winning streak, as sharp losses in the euro prompted banks to cover their short dollar positions heading into the weekend. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 53.80, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 54.08 for the week.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a fairly positive note, while the U.S. markets closed deep in the red as better than forecast payrolls report failed to keep technology and commodity shares from slumping. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed down by 2.30 & 2.56% at 105.68 & 84.86 $/bbl respectively and the Natural gas future also closed down by 3.92% at 3.55 $/MMBtu.

PERPLEXING

The markets opened on a negative note, and touched their intraday lows within 1 and half hours of the first half of the trading session and traded in the negative zone for the next one hour, but recovered all their losses till the start of the second half of the trading session and the market breadth improved as the session progressed and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets touched their intraday highs and ultimately closed near their day’s high, till the end of the session. The market breadth was positive with 948 advances to 540 declines. On the sectoral front, the Auto sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking & Pharma sectors, while FMCG sector was the sole and the biggest loser for the day. On the individual stocks front, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Wipro & Rel Infra were the top five Nifty gainers, while Hind Unilever, ONGC, ITC, GAIL & HDFC Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 335 crores and the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 154 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, Nifty future settled at 5676, with 31 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.98, along with a fall in the India VIX by 2.22%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800 call, while the 6000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5300 & 5500 calls. On the Put options side, the 5300 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 5200 & 5700 puts. The entire activity in the cash as well as the F&O markets indicates stock and sector specific buying for the second consecutive session, along with call writing at lower levels and put writing at higher levels, indicating a shift in the market sentiments on the back of positive news and fund inflows in the markets.

On the technical side, spot Nifty closed below the 5700 mark for the fifth consecutive session on low volumes, but today’s positive close along with a fall in the volatility levels, aided the market participants to add some long positions, but much of these long positions will depend on the news flow from the international market over the next one week. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5662, 5680 & 5710 on the upside and 5614, 5584 & 5566 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rose for the third successive session, driven by foreign fund inflows and the currency is likely to witness ranged trading in the absence of any domestic cues. The partially convertible Rupee, finally closed at 53.69, while the near month USD-INR future finally settled at 53.96 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note, and the U.S. markets are also trading on a fairly positive note, after data showed that manufacturing in the U.S., expanded at a faster than projected pace as orders and production picked up, showing the industry is stabilizing. On the energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading down by 0.48% at 108.17 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future is trading up by 0.94% at 87.05 $/bbl and the Natural Gas future is trading down by 0.38% 3.67 $/MMBtu.