A peek into Retirement Planning

It's time we think about Retirement planning.

ANXIETY

The markets opened on a very weak note, ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy tomorrow and continued to loose ground since inception and ultimately both the indices closed at their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 55 & 155 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with 396 advances to 928 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Banking, Midcap & Energy sectors. On the individual stocks front, Jindal steel, Tata Motors, Asian Paint, Ultratech Cement & Grasim were the top five Nifty gainers, while Sun Pharma, JP Associate, IDFC, Sesa Goa & Hindalco were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were  net sellers to the tune of 232 & 101 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 24 & 203 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 119 crores and net buyers in Stock options to the tune of 33 crores. Nifty future settled at 5877, with a premium of 45 points to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.0, along with a massive jump in the India VIX 8.76%. On the Call options side, the 5900 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000 & 5800 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5500 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, shorting in the Index futures along with call writing on the higher side of the market and long positions being built on the Put options side.

On the technical side, the downward journey resumed today and Nifty touched new lows and closed well below its support levels with falling volumes, as there was very little participation ahead of the policy announcement tomorrow. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5877, 5890 on the upside and 5808, 5786 & 5744 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee snapped its gaining streak in the last four days, on the back of dollar demand from oil importers and caution ahead of the Central bank policy review that may give cues about its stance after recent measures to defend the currency. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.41, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.66 for the day.

On the international markets front the Asian markets have closed on a relatively weak note and the European markets have closed almost flat, while the U.S. markets are also trading with losses as fewer Americans signed contracts in June to buy previously owned homes. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally up at 107.59 & 105.36 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading down by 2.62% at 3.47 $/MMBtu.

DOWNTREND

The markets opened on a positive note on the first day of the new F&O series, and continued to trade in the positive for the entire first half of the trading session, but just at the start of the second half of the trading session the market breadth started turning negative and both the indices touched their intraday lows within the next two hours. The markets could not recover much from that point and ultimately both the indices closed very near to their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 21 & 56 points respectively. The market breadth was extremely negative with 400 advances to 901 declines. On the sectoral front, once again the banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Midcap and metal sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja Cement, ITC, Hero Motocorp, Sun Pharma and M&M were the top five Nifty gainers, while Hindalco, Sesa Goa, PNB, Coal India and Hind Unilever were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 278 crores and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 489 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 194 crores and net buyers in Index options to the tune of 1736 crores, while they were net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 20 and 53 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5925, with a hefty premium of 39 points to the spot along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.18, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX. On the Call Options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 & 5900 calls. On the Put options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400, 5700 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates continued shorting in the Index futures and Call options, along with long positions on the Put options side.

On the technical side, once again Nifty has broken the major supports and the indicators on the daily and weekly charts indicate an extremely negative trend, which is likely to continue in the wake of adverse newsflow on the domestic front. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5930, 5974 on the upside and 5855, 5824 & 5780 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee hit a five week high on Friday, as the central bank’s measure to drain liquidity shore up the currency, but it gave up most gains as sustained dollar demand from oil importers to meet month end import requirements weighed. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.04, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.07, for the day.

On the international markets front, both the Asian and the European markets closed on a mixed note while the U.S. markets have closed on a positive note. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed down by 0.45 & 0.75% at 107.17 & 104.7 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future closed down by 2.44% at 3.56 $/MMBtu.

RECOVERY

The markets opened on a mildly positive note, under the shadow of the Banking  sector which was still reeling under the after effects of the RBI’s announcements, but still the markets continued to trade with a positive bias, for greater part of the trading session, but with less than a hour left for the end of the session, the market’s got the much needed fillip in the form of better than expected results from Axis bank and resulted in a sudden rally in Bank Nifty, which ultimately pulled up the entire market and both the benchmark indices closed at their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 65 & 180 points respectively. The market breadth also closed on a positive note with 701 advances to 578 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the FMCG, Energy and Midcap sectors. On the individual stocks front, ONGC, Reliance Infra, Asian Paint, Axis Bank & BHEL were the top five Nifty gainers, while M&M, HCL Tech, TCS,  Sesa Goa & Ultratech Cement were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 178 and 239 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and Options, to the tune of 30 and 465 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 324 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 91 crores. Nifty future settled at 6052, with 14 points premium to the spot along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 1.31, along with a decrease in the India VIX by 5.63%. On the Call options side, the 6200 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the Put options side, the 6000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 & 5900 puts, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5800 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates some fresh longs on the call options side along with liquidation of long positions in the Index futures, while there was some put writing on the higher side of the market.

On the technical side, after a brief lull, it seems that Nifty has resumed its upward journey once again, but any further move will be decided by the corporate results and the currency movement. Nifty is still trading above its major support levels on the weekly and daily charts and all the technical indicators indicate a further upmove. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 6068, 6086 on the upside and 5991, 5942 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee fell for a second session today, on dollar demand from companies and importers and is now close to losing all the gains it notched up since the Central bank’s measures to shore up the currency. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.67, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.71 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a strongly positive note and the U.S. markets are trading on a positive note amidst better than expected corporate earnings and jobless claims data. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up 0.06 & 1.57% up ,at 108.64 & 107.99 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up by 5.36% at 3.82 $/MMBtu, due to an unexpected fall in the weekly U.S. Natural Gas inventories.

CAUTION

The markets opened on a subdued note after the last week’s meteoric rise, and continued to trade with a negative bias, but as the session progressed the markets started recovering their losses and ultimately managed to cover all their losses till the end of the first half of the trading session and from that point onwards, the markets made a smart recovery and ultimately managed to close near their day’s high, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 22 & 76 points respectively. The market breadth also managed to close on a positive note, with 790 advances to 537 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Banking sector, while the rest of the sectors closed on a marginally positive note. On the individual stocks front, PNB, JP Associates, Cairn, Hindalco & Bank of Baroda were the top five Nifty gainers, while NTPC, Coal India, Infosys, Tata Steel & Tata Motors, were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 227 crores, while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 454 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 214 and 245 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock options to the tune of 237 crores and net sellers in Stock options the tune of mere 31 crores. Nifty future settled at 6033, with just 2 points premium to the spot, along with a marginal increase in open interest. On the Option side, PCR stood at 1.37, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.54%. On the Call options side, except the 6200 call there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6100 calls, while on the Put options side, the 6000 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6100 puts, on the other hand the 5600 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5400 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates more short covering on the Call options side, along with Put writing at higher levels of the market.

On the technical side, Nifty continued with its uptrend on increasing volumes, mainly on the back of sustained buying by the DIIs and continued short covering in the Future’s market. As suggested yesterday, Nifty is trading above all its major support levels and the uptrend seems to be intact, but the sudden increase in the Bank rate by RBI to stem the currency volatility may spoil the mood and lead to a sell off tomorrow. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 6054, 6072 on the upside and 5994, 5958 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell today, as recent economic data worsened concerns about an economy reeling under a record current account deficit. The partially convertible finally closed at 59.89, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 60.03 for the day.

On the international markets front, Asian markets have closed on a mildly positive note, while the European markets have closed on a relatively stronger note and the U.S. markets are fluctuating between gains and losses as better than estimated manufacturing data and earnings, offset a disappointing retail sales report. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally up at 108.02 & 105.73 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 1.55% at 3.587 $/MMBtu.

OPTIMISM

The markets opened with a gap up, for the second consecutive day on the better than expected corporate results and accomodative stance taken by the federal reserve. The markets maintained their extremely positive momentum throughout the day, but with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session the markets made an almost vertical ascent and ultimately both the indices closed at their highest point of the week. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 74 & 282 points respectively. The market breadth was however negative with 596 advances to 710 declines. On the sectoral front, the IT sector was the biggest gainer of the day, followed by the Pharma, Energy and Banking sectors, while the FMCG sector was the biggest loser of the day. On the individual stocks front, Infosys, IDFC, LT, TCS & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty gainers, while Maruti, JP Associate, ONGC, Ultratech Cement & IndusInd Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 645 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 145 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 71 & 73 crores respectively and they were also net buyers in Stock futures and Options to the tune 543 & 227 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 6007, with 2 points discount to the spot along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.32, along with a marginal decrease in India VIX by 1.06%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5900 & 5500 calls, while the 6100 call added the maximum open interest. On the Put Options side, the 5900 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000, 5700 & 5800 puts, while the 5400 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 put. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates massive short covering on the call options side, along with put writing at higher levels, due to the sudden surge in the markets.

On the technical side, Nifty is trading above all its major support levels on the daily and weekly charts, and Friday’s surge with increase in volumes, indicates that the positive momentum will continue for some more time on the back of positive news flow from the domestic as well as international markets. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be, 6035, 6061 on the upside and 5967, 5925 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rebounded in late trade on Friday, boosted by dollar selling by state run banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which helped the Rupee snap a nine week losing streak.

On the International markets front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a muted note, while the U.S. markets have closed on a relatively positive note. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures  closed up by 1.0 & 0.99% at 108.81 & 105.95 $/bbl respectively and the Natural Gas future closed up by 0.86% at 3.64 $/MMBtu.

MISERABLE

The markets opened with a gap down, tracking their Asian peers and to add to the misery, the Rupee touched its lifetime low, creating a sense of extreme panic which ultimately led to distress selling. The markets continued to trade with extreme negative bias and ultimately ended on an extremely negative note. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 56 and 171 points respectively. The market breadth was also negative with 515 advances to 781 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the auto sector, while the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer of the day. On the individual stocks front, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, Reliance Infra, BHEL & Ambuja Cement were the top five Nifty gainers, while BPCL, JP Associate, ONGC, HDFC & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 204 & 59 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and Options to the tune of 446 and 865 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures to the tune of 299 crores and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 122 crores. Nifty future settled at 5829, with 18 points premium to the spot along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.0, along with a marginal fall in India VIX by 0.94%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 call, while the 6100 call lost the maximum open interest followed by the 6000 & 5600 calls. On the Put options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5700 puts, while the 5800 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates liquidation of some long positions in the Index futures along with some with some option writing happening on the Call options side and long positions being added on the Put options side.

On the technical side, all is not lost as Nifty has closed above most of its critical support levels and the weekly charts, are still showing signs of support. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5848, 5864 on the upside and 5779, 5748 & 5716 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to a record low, while bond yields surged today exacerbating fears about the funding of current account deficit. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 60.61, while the near month USD-INR future settled at  60.67 for the day.

On the International markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a extremely negative note, while on the other hand the European markets have closed on an extremely positive note and the U.S. markets are also trading in the green, giving the S&P 500 index its third straight day of gains as investors wait for the earnings season to kick off. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally down at 107.44 & 103.09 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future is trading up by 3.41% at 3.74 $/MMBtu.

SILVER LINING

The markets opened with a big gap up on the back of better than estimated CAD numbers and policy reforms announced by the government. In fact such a huge opening rally took everyone by surprise and the momentum built at the start of the session continued to strengthen with every passing hour and ultimately the markets managed to close near their highest point of the day, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 160 and 520 points respectively. The market breadth was also positive with 1011 advances to 377 declines. On the sectoral front, the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, Midcap, Pharma & Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, Jindal Steel, BHEL, BPCL, Reliance Infra and Tata Power were the top five Nifty gainers while Ranbaxy, HCL Tech, Hind Unilever and Ultratech Cement were the top four Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1124 crores, while DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 581 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 1692 & 1169 crores respectively, while they were also net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 688 and 12 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5841, with 1 point discount to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR stood at 1.06, along with a fall in the India VIX by 4.77%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6100 calls, while the 5600 call shed the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5500 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700, 5300, 5500 & 5900 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space saw addition of long positions in the Index future along with addition of longs on the call options side and put writing happening at the higher levels of the market.

On the technical side, although it can be termed as an extremely sharp pullback from the extremely oversold levels, but the decent buy figures from the FIIs side add credence to the sharp rise and raises hopes of a further pullback from these levels, but much of it will depend on the international news flow and further policy measures announced by the government on the domestic front. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5712, 5739, 5771 on the upside and 5641, 5601 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee posted its biggest daily gain in nine months on Friday, fuelled by the robust rally in local stocks and the government’s move to raise gas prices for the first time in three years also aiding sentiment. The partially convertible Rupee, finally closed at 59.38, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.74 for the day. 

On the International markets front, the Asian markets closed on a positive note, while the European markets closed in the red and the U.S. markets also fell after the biggest three day rally since January as investors weighed economic data and stimulus comments from Federal Reserve officials. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed down by 0.64 & 0.50% at 102.16 & 96.56 $/bbl respectively, and the Natural gas future also closed down by 0.47% at 3.57 $/bbl.

RELIEF

The markets opened with a gap up tracking its Asian peers, and on the back of strong short covering in the current F&O series. The markets continued their positive momentum throughout the trading session and ultimately closed near their highest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 94 & 324 points respectively. The market breadth also recovered sharply and ultimately closed on a marginal positive note with 720 advances to 628 declines. On the sectoral front the IT sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, Banking & Pharma sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ultratech Cement, Cairn, DLF, ONGC & HDFC Bank were the top five Nifty gainers, while IDFC, Maruti, Grasim. PNB & Tata Motors were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1043 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 358 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 47 and 1279 crores respectively and they were also net buyers in the Stock futures and options to the tune of 1064 & 39 crores respectively. Nifty July future settled at 5687, with just 5 points premium to the spot, along with a massive increase in open interest. On the Options side PCR stood at 1.11, along with a massive fall in the India VIX by 10.54%. On the July Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by 5700, 5800 & 5900 calls, while on the Put options side the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5100, 5200 & 5700 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates some long positions on the Call options side, along with some put writing at higher levels which shows some confidence among the participants to take long positions after a sustained fall.

On the technical side it was more of a technical bounce back from the oversold levels, and since it was not backed by institutional buying, it may find difficult to sustain these levels and much of the movement will depend strongly on news flow from the domestic as well as international front. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5710, 5739 on the upside and 5641, 5601& 5572 on the lower side. On the currency front, the Rupee recovered from the record lows today, helped by corporate inflows, with a lower than expected current gap also helping relieve some of the concerns about the battered currency. The partially convertible finally closed at 60.19, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 60.57 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed on an extremely positive note, and the U.S. markets have also risen on the better than estimated economic data and assurances on stimulus efforts from Federal Reserve officials. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 1.26 & 1.64% at 102.92 and 97.05 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 3.97% at 3.58 $/MMBtu after data showed a more than expected rise in weekly U.S. Natural gas inventories.

GRIM

Once again the markets opened on a subdued note after yesterday’s muted close, and traded with a positive bias throughout the trading session, but with just half an hour left for the end of the session, the markets gave away all their gains and ultimately both the indices closed near their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 20 & 77 points respectively. The markets declined, mainly after the Rupee slumped to a record low, escalating worries foreign investors may exacerbate outflows and dimming chances of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. The market breadth was also negative with 449 advances to 882 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the IT sector, while the Banking sector was the biggest loser followed by the Auto and Pharma sectors. On the individual stocks front, Hero Motocorp, GAIL, TCS, Asian Paint and Power Grid were the top five Nifty gainers, while Bharti Airtel, M&M, Kotak Bank, Ranbaxy & IndusInd Bank were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 548 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 337 crores in the cash market. 

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in Index futures and net sellers in index options to the tune of 57 and 61 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 468 and 50 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5581, with 8 points discount to the spot, along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.91, along with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 0.33%. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5500 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6000 calls. On the options side, except the 5500 put there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 5000 to 6000 puts. In the July series the 5800 call has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5700 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5600 put has added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 and 5700 puts.

On the technical side, Nifty resumed its downward journey and the way things are shaping up, it may be a long and painful correction, before it shows some signs of reversal. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5622, 5656 on the upside and 5566, 5535 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee breached the formidable resistance of 60 and slumped to a record low against the dollar today. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 60.71, while the near month USD- INR futures settled at 61.01 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a very positive note and the U.S. markets have also risen for the second day as China’s cash crunch eased and slower than forecast economic growth fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain stimulus. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading done by 0.23 & 0.38 % at 101.03 & 94.97 $/bbl respectively after an unexpected rise in weekly U.S. crude oil inventories and the Natural Gas future is trading up by 1.55% at 3.72 $/MMBtu. 

DECEPTION

The markets opened on a muted note, tracking their Asian peers and traded rangebound for the initial two hours of trade, but from that point onwards, made a remarkable recovery and touched their intraday highs over the next three hours, but to everyone’s surprise gave away almost all their gains and closed almost flat, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 19 and 88 points respectively. The market breadth was however negative with 539 advances to 809 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy sector, while the rest of the sectors closed with marginal gains or losses. On the individual stocks front, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank and M&M were the top five Nifty gainers, while Cairn, Lupin, NTPC, Power Grid & NMDC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1286 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 824 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 576 and 14 crores respectively while they were net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 414 and 27 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5608, with 1 point discount to the spot along with a massive loss of open interest. On the Options side, the PCR stood at 0.96, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.62%. On the Call options side, with an exception of the 5600 and 5800 calls, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6100 calls. On the Put options side, with an exception of the 5500 and 5600 puts, there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6100 puts.  The entire activity in the F&O space, is typical just before expiry, when most the contracts are either being squared off or being rolled over to the next series, which led to the shorts being aggressively squared off and ultimately pulled the markets form their day’s low.

On the technical side, Nifty staged a fightback due to the sharp short covering in the F&O markets, but the underlying market breadth still remains negative as the markets rose on falling volumes and the relentless FII selling is showing no signs of ebbing. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5660, 5710 on the upside and 5564, 5519 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee gained marginally today, on some dollar selling related to arbitrage gains with the offshore non- deliverable forward market, but sentiment remained fragile after a steep sell off of stocks and debt. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 59.66, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.77 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note , while the European markets have closed on an extremely positive note and the U.S. markets have rebounded from a nine week low after data showed durable goods orders and home sales increased more than forecast and consumer confidence climbed. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading marginally up by 0.30% & 0.07% at 101.50 $/bbl and 95.26 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 1.72% at 3.69 $/MMBtu.

CHAOS

The markets continued with their losing streak and after Thursday’s carnage and Friday’s muted close, once gain the markets opened with a gap down tracking their Asian peers and traded with a strong negative bias throughout the trading session and ultimately both the benchmark indices closed very near to their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 77 and 233 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with, 246 advances to 1128 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest loser followed by the Midcap, Banking & Energy & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Jindal Steel, Lupin, Tata Power, HDFC & ICICI Bank were the top five Nifty gainers, while JP Associate, Ranbaxy, DLF, Kotak Bank & Ambuja cement were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, once again the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1553 crores, while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 931 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side FIIs were net sellers in Index futures, to the tune of 33 crores, while they were net buyers in Index options to the tune of 1231 crores. On the other hand they were net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 452 and 48 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5588 with 2 points discount to the spot, along with a considerable loss of open interest. On the options side PCR stood at 0.94, along with a massive jump in the India VIX by 10.40%. On the Call options side, the 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5500 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6100 calls. On the Put options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5500 , 5200, 5300 & 5100 puts, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 6100 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, rollover activity picking up in Index futures along with call writing at higher levels, along with corresponding long positions on the Put options side.

On the technical side, Nifty is trading well below all its major support levels on the daily charts, and the next  major support may be 5476, but below this level, there seems to be no support till 5100 and with the relentless FII selling in the domestic markets, coupled with strong headwinds, do not augur well for the markets and its only a matter of time, before these supports are taken out. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5631, 5672 on the upside and 5557, 5524 , 5483 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee fell to near record lows as foreign investors continue to sell debt and stocks as part of exit from emerging markets. The partially convertible finally closed, at 59.68, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 59.79 for the day.

On the international markets front the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red, and the U.S. stocks have also retreated, sending the S&P 500 to nine week lows, as Chinese equities entered a bear market amid concern a cash crunch will hurt the world’s second largest economy. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil future are trading up by 0.31% and 1.58% at 101.16 & 95.16 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future is trading down by 0.63% at 3.76 $/MMBtu. 

DIRECTIONLESS

Once again the markets opened on a negative note and touched their intraday lows within an hour of the start of the first half of the trading session, and continued to trade rangebound with a negative bias for greater part of the trading session, but with just half an hour let for the end of the day’s session, the markets recovered all their losses and managed to close marginally in the positive zone. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 8 and 22 points respectively. The market breadth also recovered and managed to close on a marginally positive note, with 724 advances to 629 declines. On the sectoral front, there was hardly any activity, with, most of the sectors closing with marginal gains or losses. On the individual stocks front, Hindalco,  Sesa Goa, Bharti Airtel, Ambuja Cement & Jindal Steel were the top five Nifty gainers, while Tata Motors, Ultratech Cement, Dr. Reddy, NTPC & Coal India were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 545 crores, while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 416 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 360 and 1075 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 629 and 35 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5823, with just 1 point premium to the spot along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR stood at 0.89, along with a marginal increase in the India VIX by 0.93%. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100 & 5900 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5700 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5800, 5600 & 5500 puts, while the 5900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 6000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates some long positions on the higher side of the market along with long positions on the Put options side, negating the entire effect and indicating directionless movement.

On the technical side, Nifty continued to struggle near its immediate resistance of 5850 for the third consecutive session and with the persistent selling by the FIIs, not backed by an equal amount of buying from the DIIs may lead to further weakening form these levels. As said earlier much of the direction will be provided by the major policy announcements this week, the event to watch now is the Fed Policy meet. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5840, 5859, 5877 on the upside and 5790, 5763 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee rose today, but remained within close of its record low hit last week as outflows from equity ‘markets added to concerns about funding of the current account deficit ahead of the U.S. Fed’s decision on its stimulus programme. The partially convertible finally closed at 58.71, while the near month USD-INR future closed at 58.81 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed on a mixed note, while the European markets have closed on a negative note and the U,S. markets have retreated following a two day rally, as investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading marginally up by 0.25% at 106.28 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future id trading down by 0.27% at 98.41 $/bbl and the Natural gas future is trading up by 1.78% at 3.97 $/MMBtu. 

UPTICK

The markets opened on a subdued note, just ahead of the monetary policy and as a knee jerk reaction to the disappointment from the monetary policy, the markets touched their intraday lows, but made an almost V shaped recovery and covered all their losses, till the start of the second half of the trading session and from that point onwards, the markets gained strength with every passing hour to close near their day’s high till the end of the day’s session The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 42 and 148 points respectively. The market breadth was however marginally positive with 711 advances to 624 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Auto, Energy, IT and Banking sectors. On the individual stocks front, M&M, BHEL, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were the top five Nifty gainers, while Ranbaxy, Hindalco, Dr. Reddy, Sesa Goa & NMDC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 165 crores, while DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 624 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 321 and 212 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 477 and 8 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5848, with 2 points discount to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR stood at 0.92, along with a marginal fall in the India VIX by 0.93%. On the Call options side, the 6100 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000 & 5900 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5900 puts, while the 5600 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5400 & 6000 calls. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates, fresh longs in the Index futures, along with some short covering on the Call options side and put writing on the higher side of the market.

On the technical side, Nifty rose for the second consecutive session on the back of stronger international markets and touched the immediate overhead resistance of 5850 on increasing volumes. The technical indicators on the daily charts, indicate that this pullback may lead the markets  further to new higher levels. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5880, 5910 on the upside and 5795, 5767 on the downside. On the currency front the Rupee fell today, as the RBI kept interest rate changes on hold and on caution  ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this week. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 57.87, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 57.97 for the day.

On the international markets front the Asian and the European markets have closed on an extremely positive note, and the U.S. markets are also trading on a strong note on the back of more than expected rise in the NAHB housing market index and as investors weigh prospects for less economic stimulus before this week’s Fed Policy meet. On the Energy futures front, the Brent crude oil future is trading marginally down by 0.15% at 105.78 $/bbl, while the WTI crude oil future us trading marginally up by 0.13% at 98.20 $/bbl, while the Natural Gas future is trading up by 3.50% at 3.86 $/MMBtu.

Stocks to Watch,

LT-  BUY 1440-1450, TGT – 1467,1479, SL – 1413

AXIS BANK – BUY 1300, TGT – 1335,1356. SL – 1270

SBIN -  BUY 2030-2040, TGT – 2092,2123. SL - 2013

WAIT AND WATCH

The markets took an unexpected turn and opened with a gap up after ten consecutive sessions of fall, and gradually the market breadth strengthened with every passing hour and ultimately both the indices managed to close near their highest point of the day. The market breadth was also positive with 937 advances to 432 declines. The Nifty and the Sensex closed up by 109 and 351 points respectively. On the sectoral front the Banking sector was the biggest gainer, followed by the Energy, FMCG, Auto and Midcap sectors. On the individual stocks front, Hindalco, Tata Motors, Reliance Infra, Maruti & JP Associates were the top five Nifty gainers, while IndusInd Bank, HeroMotocorp, Hind Unilever & Cipla were the top four Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 306 crores and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 911 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net buyers in both Index futures and Options, to the tune of 547 and 1152 crores respectively, while they were net buyers in Stock futures and net sellers in Stock options to the tune 353 and 81 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5806, with 2 points discount to the spot, along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Options side, PCR stood at 0.9, along with an increase in India VIX by 5.61%. On the call options side, except the 6000 call, there was uniform loss of open interest, from the 5100 t 6100 calls. On the Put options side, the 5800 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5600 puts, while the 5400 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 and 6100 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates that the massive rally was mainly due to short covering in the Index futures and options, due to the sudden change in the international market conditions.

On the technical side, it was more of a technical bounceback, as Nifty took support at its major support of 5708 and further upmove will mainly depend on the conditions created by the major policy announcements from tomorrow onwards. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5838, 5857, 5880 on the upside and 5758, 5708 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee gained on Friday, on the back of dollar selling by exporters in spot and forward markets. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 57.51, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 57.64 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets closed on a very positive note, while the U.S. markets, ended on a weak note. On the Energy futures note, the WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed up by 0.93 & 1.20% at 97.85 & 105.93 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural Gas future closed down by 2.12% at 3.73 $/MMBtu.

SOMBRE

Once again the markets opened with a gap down, tracking the weakness in the Asian markets and once again fell sharply even after a gap down opening and could not recover their losses for the entire session and closed very near to their lowest point of the day. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 61 and 214 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with 349 advances to 1010 declines. On the sectoral front, the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Midcap, Banking, Pharma, Auto & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, HIndalco, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Jindal Steel & Ambuja Cement were the top five Nifty gainers, while NMDC, PNB, Bank of Baroda, Tata Motors     & Sesa Goa were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 558 crores while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 714 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 484 crores and net buyers in index options to the tune of 82 crores, while they were net buyers in Stock options to the tune of mere 4 crores only and net sellers in Stock options to the tune of 29 crores. Nifty future settled at 5705, with just 6 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side PCR fell to 0.83, along with an increase in the India VIX by 3.13%. On the Call options side, 5700 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 5600 calls. On the Put Options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600 & 5500 puts, while the 5800 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5900 & 6000 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space saw, shorting in Index futures and call writing along with long positions on the Put options, indicating further weakness in the markets.

On the technical side, Nifty breached yet another crucial, support of 5708, and from this point onwards, falling to the 5500 levels seems to be a real possibility and the technical indicators are also showing no signs of divergence. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5724, 5749 on the upside and 5678, 5657 & 5632 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee recovered a large part of its losses today, helped by dollar sales from a corporate and exporters. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 57.98, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 58.10 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian markets have closed deep in the red, while the European markets have closed on a mixed note and the U.S. markets have risen on the back of better than estimated jobs data and acquisitions in the media and grocery industries. On the energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 0.51 & 0.07% at 104.08 & 95.96 $/bbl respectively and the Natural gas future is trading up by 0.99% at 3.81 $/MMBtu.

GLOOM

The markets opened on a very subdued note, tracking their Asian peers, and traded in an absolutely zig-zag fashion, from making new lows to almost recovering their entire losses for the day, but ultimately giving away towards the end of the session to close very near to their day’s low. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 28 and 102 points respectively.  The market breadth was also negative with 531 advances to 837 declines. On the sectoral front the FMCG sector was the biggest loser, followed by the IT , Metal and Auto sectors. On the individual stocks front, Jindal Steel, IndusInd Bank, JP Associates, IDFC & Lupin were the top five Nifty gainers, while RelInfra, Axis Bank, Tata Power, Coal India & Tata Steel were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, once again the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 1060 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 718 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in both Index futures and options to the tune of 483 and 1520 crores respectively, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 235 crores and net buyers in stock options to the tune of mere 2 crores only. Nifty future settled at 5772, with just 12 points premium to the spot, along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side, PCR fell to 0.89, along with a fall in the India VIX by 3.28%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000, 5700 & 5900 calls. On the Put options side, the 5400 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700. 5800 & 5300 puts, while the 5900, 5500 & 6000 puts lost the maximum open interest. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates shorting in Index futures, along with call writing at higher levels, with corresponding long positions on the Put options side.

On the technical side, Nifty continued to fall for the ninth consecutive session, and came within a striking distance of its 250 day EMA support and with the unabated selling pressure and international market reactions, it seems that Nifty will fall further. The levels to watch out for Nifty, will be 5789, 5818 on the upside and 5734, 5708 & 5679 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee rallied today, snapping a five day losing streak, as an upgrade by Fitch, helped calmed investor nerves. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 57.79, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 57.95 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian, and the European markets have closed deep in the red and the U.S. markets are also trading with losses as investors weigh economic growth prospects and pace of Federal Reserve stimulus measures. On the energy futures front both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading up by 0.75 0.80% at 103.80 & 96.21 $/bbl respectively, even after a more than expected rise in weekly U.S. crude oil inventories, and the Natural gas future is also trading up 1.17% at 3.76 $/MMBtu.

MAYHEM

The markets opened with a gap down and there was no looking back as the markets fell ferociously with every passing hour and eventually touched their intraday lows till the end of first half of the trading session, but tried in vain to recover some of their losses and ultimately closed very near to their lowest point of the day, till the end of the session. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 89 and 298 points respectively. The market breadth was also extremely negative with 286 advances to 1057 declines. On the sectoral front, there was across the sector selling, but still the Banking sector was the biggest loser followed by the Midcap, FMCG, Energy, Auto & IT sectors. On the individual stocks front, Ambuja Cement, Cipla, Baja Auto, GAIL & HeroMotocorp were the top five Nifty gainers, while Jindal Steel, Hindalco, Tata Power, DLF & ONGC were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 886 crores, while the DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 313 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures to the tune of 1958 crores and net buyers in Index options to the tune of 1645 crores, while they were net sellers in both Stock futures and options to the tune of 433 and 11 crores respectively. Nifty future settled at 5802, with 13 points premium to the spot along with a considerable increase in open interest. On the options side PCR stood at 0.96, along with a massive jump in India VIX by 7.62%. On the Call options side, the 5800 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6000, 5900 & 5700 calls, while on the Put options side, the 5500 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700 & 5400 puts, while the 5900 put lost the maximum open interest, followed by the 5600, 6000 & 5800 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates Call writing at higher levels along with a corresponding increase in the long positions on the Put options side, reflecting the overall trend of the market.

On the technical side, Nifty has broken all its critical support levels on increasing volumes and there seems to be no respite. Nifty has retraced almost 61.8% from its recent highs and the last support level will be its 250 day EMA. On the daily charts, however Nifty has entered the oversold levels, due to which a short technical pullback cannot be ruled out. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5851, 5889 on the upside and 5763, 5708 on the downside. On the currency front, the Rupee hit its record low against the dollar today, but recouped its early losses after the RBI intervened to stem the Rupee’s sharp decline. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 58.98, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 58.54 for the day.

On the international markets front, the Asian and the European markets have closed deep in the red, and the U.S. markets are also trading in the red after Bank of Japan governor, said he sees no need to expand the monetary stimulus immediately. On the Energy futures front, both the Brent and WTI crude oil futures are trading down 1.33 & 0.95% at 102.53 & 94.86 $/bbl respectively and the Natural gas future is also trading down by 0.86% at 3.76 $/MMBtu.

DILEMMA

The markets opened on a very soft note and traded in the red for the initial two hours of the trading session, but managed to clawback in the green after the initial two hours of trade and traded rangebound for greater part of the session and with just one hour left for the end of the day’s session, the markets lost all their gains and closed near their lowest point of the day, till the end of the session The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by 40 & 90 points respectively. The market breadth was also negative with 572 advances to 788 declines. On the sectoral front the Banking sector was the biggest loser, followed by the Energy, Auto & Pharma sectors, while the IT sector was the biggest gainer for the day. On the individual stocks front, TCS, Dr. Reddy, Lupin, BPCL and Infosys were the top five Nifty gainers, while JP Associate, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, M&M and Bharti Airtel were the top five Nifty losers for the day. On the institutional side, both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers to the tune of 158 and 172 crores respectively in the cash market.

On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index futures, to the tune of 509 crores and net buyers in Index  Options to the tune of 1456 crores, while they were net sellers in Stock futures to the tune of 76 crores and net buyers in stock options to the tune of mere 20 crores only. Nifty future settled at 5895 with just 14 points premium to the spot along with a marginal decrease in open interest. On the Option side, PCR stood at 0.97, while the India VIX closed almost flat. On the Call options side, the 6000 call added the maximum open interest, followed by the 6100, 5900 & 5800 calls, while there was uniform loss of open interest from the 5000 to 5700 calls. On the Put options side, the 5600 put added the maximum open interest, followed by the 5700, 5800 & 5500 puts. The entire activity in the F&O space indicates that although there are no considerable shorts in the system, the market participants are unwilling to carry forward their unhedged positions and accordingly call writing is happening at the higher levels , followed by corresponding increase of long positions on the put options side.

On the technical side, Nifty has fallen for the sixth consecutive session and is trading below most of its short term moving averages and has almost retraced 50% from its peak made on 20^th May 2013. The technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts also indicate a downtrend and do not indicate any sharp move on either side, unless there are some major policy announcements on the domestic as well as international front. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5923, 5945, 5975 on the upside and 5855, 5828 & 5743 on the downside. On the currency front , the Rupee hit a one year low on Friday and was at a striking distance of an all time low, but dollar selling by some exporters and state run banks helped gain some ground. The Rupee has been falling for five straight weeks, taking its losses since the start of May to 5.71 percent, to make it among the worst performing currencies in Asia during this period. The partially convertible Rupee finally closed at 57.06, while the near month USD-INR future settled at 57.28 for the day.

On the International markets front, except the Asian markets the European and the U.S. markets closed for the week with decent gains. On the Energy futures front, the Brent and the WTI crude oil futures have closed at 96.03 & 104.56 $/bbl respectively, while the Natural gas future has closed at 3.83 $/MMBtu.