INDECISIVE

The markets witnessed huge intraday volatility and both the indices touched their intraday lows and particularly Nifty came very close to its strong support of 5150, but somehow managed to recover the  losses by the end of the session and both the indices managed to close flat on friday, but Saturday being a special trading day was quite and both Nifty and Sensex closed up by 18 and 53 points respectively. Although the market was negative on Friday with 573 advances to 908 declines, it was a different picture on Saturday with 770 advances to 502 declines. Well not much is to be read into Saturday's session because there was hardly any participation from the institutional activities with FIIs buying merely 6 crores  and DIIs merely selling 11 crores in the cash market. The star performers of the day were Sterlite Industries, Axis Bank, Ranbaxy, Sesa Goa.

The story was same, even on the derivatives side, where FIIs brought Index Futures and Stock futures worth 14 crores and 4 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5232, with 23 points premium to the spot, and loosing open interest close to 2.4 lakhs in the last two consecutive sessions. On the options side PCR increased to 1.02 on Friday, but subsequently decreased to 0.71 on Saturday, along-with a fall in the India VIX by 1.57%. On the Call option side, 5400 call added the maximum open interest followed by the 5300 and 5600 calls, while on the Put options side, 5500 put shed the maximum open interest followed by the 5600 and 5200 puts. 

On the technical side Nifty has consolidated long enough in a particular range, for the last five consecutive sessions, a breakout may happen any moment based on the volume, open interest and volatility levels. It all depends on the domestic news flow and international economic scenario, which side the breakout happens. On the domestic side, most of the bigwigs have declared their corporate results and the markets have already priced in or one should say discounted the earnings and will find the justified levels in the weeks to come. Goings forward the levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5238, 5255 and 5293 on the upside and 5142, 5120 and 5086 on the downside. The rupee ended almost flat, with USD-INR futures closing at 52.88.

The international markets ended in the green for the week, with a exception of Asia. There will be a lot of buzz from the European and U.S. markets from tomorrow morning, in the form of economic data from the Eurozone and U.S.

QUIET SESSION

The markets opened on a flat note and traded in the positive zone for the first one hour of the trade, but ultimately entered the negative zone and traded in a very narrow range, till the end of the session, and ultimately both Nifty and Sensex closed down by 13 and 21 points respectively. The market breadth was negative with 555 advances to 905 declines. The star performers of the day were Kotak Bank, TCS, ACC & Coal India. On the institutional side there was extremely low participation with FIIs turning net sellers to the tune of -348 crores and DIIs were net buyers, merely to the tune of 63 crores in the cash market.

On the derivatives side FIIs sold Index futures worth 348 crores and brought Stock futures worth 61 crores. Nifty May Futures closed at 5214, with 25 points premium to the spot, along-with a considerable addition of open interest. Overall there was 62.87% rollover of Nifty futures, which shows the market participants were unwilling to carry large positions to the next series, due to the extreme uncertainty surrounding the market. On the options side PCR fell to 0.9, along-with a moderate fall in the India VIX by 1.06%. On the Call options side, the May series has opened with the highest open interest at 5600 call, followed by the 5400 & 5500 calls, while on the Put options side the highest open interest is at 5000 put followed by the 5100 & 5200 puts.

On the technical side, Nifty has consolidated near the 5150 level, for the fourth consecutive day, on very low volumes. It remains to be seen, that how the market participants are going to participate at these levels, to ensure this as a valid support. The levels to watch out for Nifty will be 5209, 5234 & 5245 on the upside and 5173,5155 & 5137 on the downside. The USD-INR depreciated further and USD-INR futures closed at 52.90.

On the international market front the European markets have closed flat on the back of poor economic data, while the U.S. markets are trading on a flattish note on the back of mixed data such as more than expected jobless claims data and better than expected housing data. The Brent and WTI crude are trading at 119.70 and 104.45 $/bbl.