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Saturday, May 5, 2012

MAYHEM

The markets once again started off, on a negative note, with the participants oblivious to the mayhem that lie ahead. Everything seemed to be normal because of the previous day's closing of the international markets, but after the initial two hours of the trading session, the cuts became deeper and both the indices plunged to their lowest levels since January and closed the week near the lowest levels. The Nifty and the Sensex closed down by, 101 and 320 points respectively. The market breadth was negative or one should say grim, with 259 advances to 1230 declines.  There was across the sector selling, with the biggest cut coming from the Banking sector, followed by the Midcap, Energy and FMCG shares. The standalone performance came from  CIPLA, on the back of drastic cut in prices of its cancer drugs and the management, as well as the brokerage houses reiterating their confidence on the out-performance of the company.On the institutional side the scenario was a bit different, with the FIIs turning net buyers to the tune of 428 crores while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of 280 crores in the cash market.
On the derivatives side the scenario was just the opposite, where FIIs were net sellers both in the Index futures and Stock futures to the tune of 1038 and 178 crores respectively. Nifty futures closed at 5098, with just 11 points premium to the spot, and a massive addition of open interest. On the options side the PCR stayed at 0.98, but there was a massive jump in the India VIX by 9.71%. On the Call options side, with a exception of the 5600 call, there was massive addition of open interest from 5000 to 5500 calls, while on the Put options side, with a exception of 5000 put, there was considerable shedding of open interest from 5100 to 5600 puts. The activity in the F&O  space clearly indicates shorts building up in the system and things might get worse from these levels, unless some thing positive happens on the government policy front. The prime reason for the carnage on Dalal street, seems to be the fear, regarding the GAAR provisions applicable to FIIs, and on the international front, the outcome of the elections in Europe, which seemed to weighing very heavily both on the international markets as well as the FIIs investments in India.
On the technical side, in  the last two sessions we have seen gap down openings and all major supports have been taken out on huge volumes, indicating no respite and we may see some some more downside in the next few sessions. Going forward, the levels to watch out for Nifty , will be 5105, 5150 and 5211 on the upside and 5045, 5004 on the downside. The rupee depreciated further and the USD-INR future closed at 53.78.
On the international market front both the European and U.S. markets have ended deep in the red. On the energy futures front both Brent and WTI crude futures have closed down by 2.50% and 3.95%, at 113.48 & 98.49 $/bbl.

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